Bob Chill

Something less obvious worth keeping an eye on is the UK ridge pressing towards iceland/greenland. That can help block up the atlantic and fight off ridging in the east. This plot is a run over run change and not a height anomaly map. You can see the tendency for higher heights in that region as well as lower heights in the Atl near the 50/50 region. The UK ridge is pretty stout by d8 so it's prob not a phantom and could play an important role on how we get a flawed event down the line instead of suntans.

@psuhoffman Yep, once the big +AO showed up in combination with crappy ridge/trough alignment in the ePac leading into the holiday I knew it was going to be a problem for longer than just a week or so. I said as much when the crappy Pac showed up before Christmas but there was know way to now if it was going to dig in an hang around for a while. It's safe to say it's going to hang around for a while now. I didn't have high hopes leading into this winter as I was thinking a dud was on the way back in Sept/Oct but Nov came in like a lion and made me second guess everything. The big +AO during the first half of Dec was the first warning sign. The recent flip to a -AO was a bit promising but it didn't lock in. Now that we're back to a pretty sig +AO regime it's time to trim expectations and just sit back and hope a fluke/flawed event pops up. We're half decent at that around here so I'd be surprised if Jan went snowless.

It's not the pacific. It's looking at an op run waaaay beyond any type of useful range and expecting anything to be remotely correct that's a problem. It makes no difference what the gfs shows in the long range. Nothing is changing the fact that we are in an extend hostile period that may continue for the next 2 months or it might flip to deep winter out of nowhere. There is literally nothing worth tracking winter wx wise for the next 7 days minimum.

Yea, I conceded a few days ago. No sense tracking a damn thing when the next 7 days feature mostly unseasonable warmth and any precip will be the rain variety. With nothing exciting showing up beyond the next 7 days it's best to just embrace it, spend time outside, and only worry about the lack of snow once we start consistently getting below freezing again. Hard to be bummed about no snow when it's 60+ outside.

2011-12

Yea, I thought that was a little silly honestly. @leesburg 04 says it well. There's a big difference between big game hunting and simple winter wx tracking. Is there any sign of a big dog pattern? Nope, not even close. Are there signs of enough ingredients available for some winter wx? Yea, all guidance has the door open for our most common way of getting snow... jacked up imperfect pattern that may accidentally work out. What's saving us now is no sign of a SE ridge. Amplifying progressive flow should deliver multiple winter airmasses during early Jan. We just need some good luck. We've had a couple bad breaks already. Time for equilibrium to kick in and throw us a bone.

Great story... so we buy scatcher lottery tickets for stocking stuffers every year. I scratched off my winning #s and the very first prize scratch was a matching # and $100k prize. We all thought we hit 100k...until I finished scratching the ticket...and my winning match was actually the row below 100k so I won $10. LOL. I can't get over the feeling of losing $99,990 this morning. Oh well, gotta keep working. Merry Christmas snow starved weenies!

@psuhoffman find me some analogs of what the eps and gefs are evolving into in the next 7-15 days. Lol. What a jacked up pattern. -PNA/++AO but is still lining up cold delivery (could be extremish cold) into the east. Hypothetically... if we get 3-4 separate shots of cold continental or even arctic air I think we can pull off an event before mid Jan. Def not a long track type of event as flow rippin and bucklin all over the mid latitudes. Just need choas to take over and get things lined up right. Ice, mixed, or even cold powder is possible. It won't come easy or be spotted from a distance but it does look like we're back in the game in early Jan

I believe models are converging on an unusual epac ridge axis that puts western canada into the deep freeze as the ridge axis runs along the coast. It's a weird pattern in general but hey, get canada into the deep freeze without a SE ridge and we'll get some cold. Get enough cold and it should accidentally snow

Just got back from a 15 mile bike ride. Not gonna lie... I really liked the warmer temps. Lemons and lemonade and stuff

EPS is looking much better down the line (not the same as looking good. Lol). Especially in the Atl. Also moves the tpv out of AK fairly quickly and is building an -epo ridge. Mid level temps are looking cold by d15 so some of the arctic air in AK is getting displaced into the mid latitudes. All in all I'll take the 12z eps run as a Christmas present.

Doesn't work out on the run but I'm not mad at the CMC's version of NYE

It's not much and I won't share any thoughts about what I think about early Jan but... EPS shows there's more than a 1% chance at an event around NYE

I'm getting nice bike upgrades and some new disc golf discs. 2 perfect excuses to gtfo of the house. Weather appears to be cooperating brilliantly with my planned escape

The good news is we don't have to worry about any weather tracking distractions this holiday.

I would love for JAX to get hit like that. It would be national news and something that millions of residents would never forget.

Yea, damned if you do and don't with the deal around the 30th. The only thing that can bring cold enough air into the mix is NS phasing and NS phasing almost guarantees a cutter. Euro cuts off the shortwave tracks the shortwave under us but with streams completely separated there is no cold to work with at all.

Everything is turning into a bit of a mess from a predictability standpoint. I've conceded that we literally have no idea what may or may not pop up in the next 2 weeks and also that the general hemispheric pattern will remain quite unfavorable for decent event. Once we start getting some fronts rolling through with continental air and progressive flow then chaos can take over and accidentally snow on us. Trying to predict that over a week in advance is a waste of time. No way to spin or sugarcoat where things appear to be heading. There is no longer any hint of a good hemispheric pattern setting up anytime in the near future. Crumbs, scraps, and accidents appears to be all we're going to have to work with.

being full disclosure honest... I converted my mountain bike to an ebike this summer. Still get plenty of exercise as I only use power to help with tricky ascents but I won't lie... power is addicting

Man, ain't no bizzle dizzle cuz I ollie that shizzle!

I bought new tires and upgraded suspension fork for my mountain bike for Christmas. Looks like good wx for some nice trail rides next couple weeks.

It's all perspective. I love big game hunting only when things actually cooperate. Which is pretty rare. Like you, I just want a wintry scene. They come in all shapes and sizes. Vast majority of our events are small and they often happen in a messy setup. That's life here. If you're only happy during deep winter conditions with heavy snowfall then you'll be miserable 95% of the time. There's more than a few around here that are miserable 100% of the time.

Euro wasn't far from a much better outcome. A tighter spacing/flatter ridge in front and more confluence from the atlantic and storm track suddenly goes from cutter to coastal. In between solution would be CAD then flip. This is a decent panel right here Flatten the top of the full latitude ridge and we snow

12z gefs is picking up on something around NYE and the CMC op hits us good The GEFS members that work out are similar to the CMC progression with a wave or waves getting suppressed by transient 50/50 atl blocking. IMO- it's a huge longshot but there are enough hints in that time frame to keep it interesting.

@frd Wes did a great scatter plot with AO and 4" or greater snowstorms. The plot clearly showed the importance of a -AO and 4"+ storms for DCA as the correlation was somewhere around 70%. Might be higher... I'm not digging too deep into anything right now as we're still over a week away from even being in the longshot game. Jan can be a friendly month with snowfall and hostile teleconnections. Just need some luck (as always).