Bob Chill

EPS improved the Atl d10-15 but the western trough is still in beast mode and not moving so hurry up and wait. lol

We'll see how it goes but the medium to short range trend has been norther/warmer for several weeks now. Keep getting chances even in a jacked up pattern and something could break right but I'm very skeptical that this can break in anyone's favor on the sub. If I'm wrong I'll gladly admit my bust while I'm shoveling.

Aleutian ridge progresses and starts shoving the massive repeating trough in the west eastward so that's something. It's just an op but it doesn't support the ens idea of being back to something at least "acceptable" before the 18th. Still plenty of work to do at the end of the gfs. My main concern is the repeating trough ends up hanging on far longer than we want. We'll know one way or another within the next 3-5 days.

EPS is similar with the transition in the Atl. From everything I see, ens agree that we transition back to a more wintry pattern during the 15-18th period. That's my focus and we'll see if that holds and starts moving out in time. I'm sure you're thinking the same. Looks like some pretty anomalous warmth on tap from the 10th-15th. Very impressive 850 anomalies showing up from long range. We may touch 60 a couple times this month before anything good happens.

Jan 2019 barley counts...it was heading towards a bust and we got saved at last minute How can you live in a world where a reverse bust that drops a foot+ barely counts? 18z gfs says screw my post about things might be improving. Looks worse at the end than the beginning. Uh oh

We have to finish shoveling this first though. At least in Rockville anyways

We're smack dab in the middle of what appears to be a month long wretched toaster bath of a pattern, have barely had any snow, and it's felt more like spring/fall than winter for the last 2 weeks. We're staring down the barrel of the wretched toaster bath pattern continuing through mid month. Even the "better pattern" doesn't look like a good pattern. Just not as hideous. There are plenty of reasons all over the place to go ahead and jump if you're weak. I'm not saving anyone but myself anyways.

GEFS is the fastest transition to a return to cold continental air in the east but the EPS is now looking very similar in the progression d10-15. GEFS has a better Atl and EPS has a better Pac but both ens show the MA back in the game around the 15th. Trend last few days has been to speed up the transition so I'm becoming encouraged that it's real and not a mirage. Like I've said multiple times, we can sneak in some sort of jacked up event in overall crappy patterns. They don't come easy and I haven't been enthused with the recent teases. Maybe the 7th works out maybe not but by the middle of the month we may actually be back in the game for real winter wx.

Now we're talkin! EPS with a nice shift in the EPO region. Starts building before this panel but this is a very good sign for run over run h5 changes

Euro op def sped up the reshuffle towards a better pattern. We're starting to see some consensus build on the way we get out of this wretched pattern.

Some of the d10-15 850 temp anomaly maps the ens are spitting out are really impressive for BC. Even for NW Canada standards... it looks like a legit cold factory setting up and it will spill into the conus not too far down the road.

There's going to be very anomalous cold building in BC dropping into the west sometime around d10. That airmass will likely make it here (imho). Modified quite a bit of course but it will be our first real continental airmass since mid Dec. Root for a stemwinder in the midwest that opens the door back to more workable cold. A big wound up storm will help compress flow to our north and reshuffle the deck in a good way. If the GEFS has the right idea then we're good for getting out of the toaster bath boiling in the dumpster fire before Feb. Context of my post (which I know you always get) was not that winter is magically blasting back in and off to the races. Just that the longwave pattern will FINALLY allow for real continental cold to move through fairly slowly instead of hit and run ridge/trough. Storm track should morph into a more W-E orientation. Get that type of storm track with just "normal Jan temps" and we can score something that may actually need a shovel instead of wind/sun/salt/broom. lol

GEFS continues to show the escape hatch opportunity within 2 weeks. Another run compressing atl flow with the scand/uk ridge pressing poleward. If the aluetian ridge simultaneously pushes polward then we have a convoluted HL block that will rearrange the flow in the east. I like this panel a lot... ETA: EPS is going the same direction just not as quickly. It has been ever so slowly trending quicker with an improved Atl/height pattern in the east. If this holds in time then we're back in the game in under 2 weeks

That's what I was trying to say. Not that we get a coupled epo/pna combo that locks in for weeks. Just that embedded in progressive flow will be periods where the pna and/or epo will cooperate more often than be hostile. Still need choas and luck and all that stuff. And we all know what to expect with progressive flow because we've been dealing with it nearly every winter since Jan 2011. Lol

My gut is telling me Feb is going to feature a -epo in general and maybe it builds before Jan is over. Same with the pna... I believe Feb will have a +pna in general. Not looking like the atl is going to have stable blocking so I'm not excited about Feb or think it will be a memorable month. At the same time I don't think Feb will be a disaster like the pattern that set in since the week before Christmas and appears to want to continue for at least 2 more weeks. I've conceded that this isn't going to be a memorable winter so any event that requires a shovel will be celebrated.

I don't think Jan will torch door to door. Second half can easily flip. Maybe not flip to sweet but it's very unlikely the pna stays strongly negative all month. Next couple weeks look rough but we're also in the time of year where we need the least amount of things to go right. Maybe choas sends us a cookie. Unfortunately this year is the more common way winter goes in these parts. Sucks every time it happens but it's the opposite of unusual.

@psuhoffman I do see a realistic way out within the next 2 weeks. 18z gfs op shows the process in motion. All ens agree that a very cold arctic airmass is going to get displaced into the conus out west d10-15. That will move east. Modified but still cold. Once that happens we could get a reshufffle and the atl starts fighting back. Gefs is building the scand ridge and that could be important as things shuffle around. The atl might flex and start pushing back against the -pna. That's the fast way out. The other way is for the nasty AK ridge to roll forward (or retro) and start shoving things. That seems like a long way down the line but I really don't expect the Pac to stay ugly through Feb. We'll see a +pna period before the end of Feb imo. Too far away to discuss

Don't have to worry about very interested... EPS says lol to the op. Actually degraded from 0z and that didn't look good already. Still a cluster that says maybe but I was expecting a more promising run.

Lol- "very interested" = starting to beleive we actually have a legit chance. Next step is "all in" and the step after that is a face slap of reality and rain.

It's a screwy progression. There's a partial transfer right overhead that cuts off the waa precip. It could be right but what if there was no partial transfer we would have had 3-6" region wide before dryslot. If the shortwave accidentally tracks under us it's a warning event. Pattern obviously favors a crappy track but we have a knack for sneaking something in nearly every year. Very interested in the EPS. If there's a sig jump in good solutions I'll get very interested

Lol- euro speeds up the shortwave on the 7th so the column is good even with a west track but the transfer still figures out how to skip over us with the waa shield. I do like the progression though. It would be an event regardless of the verbatim solution. Still plenty of leeway for a good track too. If the storm becomes a legit threat we should call it the lemonade storm

Surface sucks but mids are ok. NW crew could have a wintry period.

Lol- yea, it can become quite tiring quickly. It's why I haven't been posting much in the lr thread. We usually get a decent period every winter and I do beleive this year will be no different. Would be nice if our good period hits when it matters instead of the irrelevant late March -NAO. Have to see how things are looking mid month but for right now the odds of Feb being better than Jan are really high.

Nah, there's always a longshot embedded in every disaster. There will be distractions. Like this one

All global ens look identical d15. I'm inclined to strongly believe we're going to fight a -pna with no blocking for at least 2 weeks. More likely 3 weeks. We can reassess daily like always.