Bob Chill

It is what it is. We go through far more disasters than epic stretches so we're seasoned vets at enduring long duration nails on chalkboards. We can pull off a fluke in some of the worst looking setups so there's always longshot hope. Sustained cold with multiple winter wx chances isn't happening anytime soon so we'll have lots of time for meltdowns, infighting, and hope/denial cycles. On another topic... I did a 12 mile trail ride on my bike yesterday. Loved it but it was almost hot. Lol.

I only look 2-3 weeks tops down the line so my long range posts are always within that context. Feb could be record breaking. I'd like one of these western troughs to close off and turn into midwest bomb. That's prob the only fast way out of this mess. Wave breaks can be violent and not well predicted in advance. Otherwise the way out is going to be a long drawn out process that will test even the most patient weenies on the planet

I'm only referring to the hemispheric longwave pattern. Not discrete stuff as that's rarely if ever resolved until inside of 5 days. Global ens, euro weeklies, and even the cfs have absolutely destroyed the longwave pattern from weeks away. That trend better end soon because the 2 week outlook is abysmal and unwavering.

What happened to the "models can't get anything right beyond 5 days" crowd? Haven't heard much about that lately. Is it because models have been remarkably accurate this year?

I'm not 100% sure but I believe the Jan 16 block was just a random ridge that got locked into place at the right time. Someone can correct me if my old memory is failing. 2013-15 featured a lot of stout scand ridges that behaved like blocks at times. The big Feb 2014 storm was a byproduct of the scand ridge.

Here's a visual. This is a run over run change and not an anomaly map. We're still pretty toasty in the east but you can see the trend of lowering heights in the eastern half of the conus. That's likely a sign that there's a cluster of EPS members moving things in the right direction.

EPS tossed us a cookie crumb. Trended towards rolling the trough in the west eastward and if you squint, go crosseyed, and wear someone else's glasses you could say that there is a slight hint of a -EPO starting to consider its options of making a return.

It's a combo of things. Pos tilt obviously hinders the ULL from energizing. The progression is disjointed with SLP way out in front to the NE of the ULL. Neg tilt earlier could capture the SLP and blow the whole thing up but we wouldn't be remotely close to being on the "good side". It's certainly possible we get a period of instability driven precip as the shortwave tracks by us but it won't amount to much.

Euro isn't going to do it this run but definitely an improvement with the northern stream trying to force the shortwave south. I can envision how the storm can track south of us. All the indices suck ass and it prob "shouldn't" snow next week but our area generally pulls off a jacked up convoluted event that "shouldn't" happen once a year or so.

I'm just trying to accept there's a chance that I may see snow fall from the sky. I don't disagree with your explanation on how it could be a decent event but you're describing how multiple things have to go right during a winter where absolutely nothing has gone right so... LOL

The 7-8th window is as good as any chance we've had this year. General consensus is to run SLP to our west but ensembles have many iterations that still drop some snow on us even with a west track. The sucky part is we have to root for a weak/disorganized system or we're toast (literally). EPS is just about 50/50 with at least a little frozen. Would be nice to pull something off (however small and messy) because it's tough sleddin' out there.

Bustin Jerk never breaks character

Weeklies say the pattern over the next 2 weeks is here to stay through mid Feb. 18z gefs is down right hot d15. I think today is rock bottom. Seriously. It can't get much worse. Weeklies are often wrong so I'm not saying I beleive it and think we're doomed for 6 weeks. But seeing basically an identical pattern set up for 6 straight weeks isn't fun to look at.

Don't make is more complicated than it needs to be. For right now we're dunski and there is nothing showing up anywhere that says that's going to change. If/when it does then it will be discussed in minute detail. All PSU is saying that just because it looks like a disaster now doesn't mean it's a lock for the next 8 weeks. There are escape hatches to keep an eye out for and until then play golf and stuff.

Ensembles have done an excellent job this year. There has only been one notable time where things made a big shift in the medium range and that was the brief -AO/NAO period we just had. That sorta popped up unexpectedly. Other than that d10-15 has done quite well. Especially since mid Dec. People who don't think models have any accuracy beyond 5-7 days are flat wrong this year. EPS has been killing it.

Jan 16 had a nice west based -nao

There's some splitting hairs going on. Nobody can predict months in advance and nobody claims to. However, there are reliable clues that can indicate good and bad well in advance. The AO being the biggest one. Dec is going to finish positive and not by just a little. Forecasts are for that continuing into Jan. Possibly strongly positive. For that reason alone we currently have and will continue to have below normal snow chances and well below normal big storm chances for the foreseeable future. That's not a guess. It's a fact.

12z EPS is showing a legit SE ridge at the end of the run now. Hope the d8-10 deal works out if we're heading to SE Ridgeville

Between today's 12z and last night's 0z, I'll take the 12z version any day. Last night was eye candy but it's a moth fart away from being on the rain side. A constant theme this year from medium to short range is less suppression, less cold, less blocking, and more rain. The 12z run had deep entrenched cold and tight spacing. That's the first time I've seen an op try and run precip into a large/established cold airmass in a long time.

It's a good TN valley overrunning setup. Shortwaves are pretty tight so amplified is unlikely. I liked the run a lot. Gives us a chance during a rare occurance of a solid antecedent airmass. Many of the EPS hits are weak wave/overunning deals. Not surprised to see the op throw one out. Would be nice to be tracking a legit threat under 6 days away. Getting closer...

Why would it get anybody? Op runs 7+ days out in time always have wild swings and jumps. It's been that way forever. Being surprised that an op flips to a brand new solution every 6 or 12 hours means you don't understand the inherent limitations of operational models.

I agree with @showmethesnow. We have at least 2 pna ridge spikes and EC troughs on tap from 1/5 - 1/10. First one is prob a lost cause as the antecedent conditions suck. The second on is much more interesting and is what both the gefs and eps have as our first legit window. I don't give a crap what ops say every 6-12 hours as we're still too far away for any type of reasonable accuracy. Keep the window open and maybe something breaks right. We could spend most of Jan chasing progressive troughs. Keep them coming and it will accidentally snow on us

Pivotal's high res euro comes out step for step with pay sites but only has the 0z and 12z runs

Next 10 days are essentially a shutout. Seeing signs of life beyond that but who knows how things will shake out. I say we get snow by mid month for no other reason than having cold around during the heart of Jan requires the least amount of everything else to go right to get some snow. It does look like cold is returning in some fashion. Need a little luck

If you completely ignore the disgusting -pna and focus soley on the NAO domain... this panel would be encouraging. Even as is it's not that bad. Roll the pacific forward and we have a big storm setup... Gefs and EPS keep hinting that big UK ridge may press into iceland or even greenland. This is the most stout I've seen yet and about the only thing that can save us from the disaster we call the pacific