Bob Chill

GEFS continues to show the escape hatch opportunity within 2 weeks. Another run compressing atl flow with the scand/uk ridge pressing poleward. If the aluetian ridge simultaneously pushes polward then we have a convoluted HL block that will rearrange the flow in the east. I like this panel a lot... ETA: EPS is going the same direction just not as quickly. It has been ever so slowly trending quicker with an improved Atl/height pattern in the east. If this holds in time then we're back in the game in under 2 weeks

That's what I was trying to say. Not that we get a coupled epo/pna combo that locks in for weeks. Just that embedded in progressive flow will be periods where the pna and/or epo will cooperate more often than be hostile. Still need choas and luck and all that stuff. And we all know what to expect with progressive flow because we've been dealing with it nearly every winter since Jan 2011. Lol

My gut is telling me Feb is going to feature a -epo in general and maybe it builds before Jan is over. Same with the pna... I believe Feb will have a +pna in general. Not looking like the atl is going to have stable blocking so I'm not excited about Feb or think it will be a memorable month. At the same time I don't think Feb will be a disaster like the pattern that set in since the week before Christmas and appears to want to continue for at least 2 more weeks. I've conceded that this isn't going to be a memorable winter so any event that requires a shovel will be celebrated.

I don't think Jan will torch door to door. Second half can easily flip. Maybe not flip to sweet but it's very unlikely the pna stays strongly negative all month. Next couple weeks look rough but we're also in the time of year where we need the least amount of things to go right. Maybe choas sends us a cookie. Unfortunately this year is the more common way winter goes in these parts. Sucks every time it happens but it's the opposite of unusual.

@psuhoffman I do see a realistic way out within the next 2 weeks. 18z gfs op shows the process in motion. All ens agree that a very cold arctic airmass is going to get displaced into the conus out west d10-15. That will move east. Modified but still cold. Once that happens we could get a reshufffle and the atl starts fighting back. Gefs is building the scand ridge and that could be important as things shuffle around. The atl might flex and start pushing back against the -pna. That's the fast way out. The other way is for the nasty AK ridge to roll forward (or retro) and start shoving things. That seems like a long way down the line but I really don't expect the Pac to stay ugly through Feb. We'll see a +pna period before the end of Feb imo. Too far away to discuss

Don't have to worry about very interested... EPS says lol to the op. Actually degraded from 0z and that didn't look good already. Still a cluster that says maybe but I was expecting a more promising run.

Lol- "very interested" = starting to beleive we actually have a legit chance. Next step is "all in" and the step after that is a face slap of reality and rain.

It's a screwy progression. There's a partial transfer right overhead that cuts off the waa precip. It could be right but what if there was no partial transfer we would have had 3-6" region wide before dryslot. If the shortwave accidentally tracks under us it's a warning event. Pattern obviously favors a crappy track but we have a knack for sneaking something in nearly every year. Very interested in the EPS. If there's a sig jump in good solutions I'll get very interested

Lol- euro speeds up the shortwave on the 7th so the column is good even with a west track but the transfer still figures out how to skip over us with the waa shield. I do like the progression though. It would be an event regardless of the verbatim solution. Still plenty of leeway for a good track too. If the storm becomes a legit threat we should call it the lemonade storm

Surface sucks but mids are ok. NW crew could have a wintry period.

Lol- yea, it can become quite tiring quickly. It's why I haven't been posting much in the lr thread. We usually get a decent period every winter and I do beleive this year will be no different. Would be nice if our good period hits when it matters instead of the irrelevant late March -NAO. Have to see how things are looking mid month but for right now the odds of Feb being better than Jan are really high.

Nah, there's always a longshot embedded in every disaster. There will be distractions. Like this one

All global ens look identical d15. I'm inclined to strongly believe we're going to fight a -pna with no blocking for at least 2 weeks. More likely 3 weeks. We can reassess daily like always.

It is what it is. We go through far more disasters than epic stretches so we're seasoned vets at enduring long duration nails on chalkboards. We can pull off a fluke in some of the worst looking setups so there's always longshot hope. Sustained cold with multiple winter wx chances isn't happening anytime soon so we'll have lots of time for meltdowns, infighting, and hope/denial cycles. On another topic... I did a 12 mile trail ride on my bike yesterday. Loved it but it was almost hot. Lol.

I only look 2-3 weeks tops down the line so my long range posts are always within that context. Feb could be record breaking. I'd like one of these western troughs to close off and turn into midwest bomb. That's prob the only fast way out of this mess. Wave breaks can be violent and not well predicted in advance. Otherwise the way out is going to be a long drawn out process that will test even the most patient weenies on the planet

I'm only referring to the hemispheric longwave pattern. Not discrete stuff as that's rarely if ever resolved until inside of 5 days. Global ens, euro weeklies, and even the cfs have absolutely destroyed the longwave pattern from weeks away. That trend better end soon because the 2 week outlook is abysmal and unwavering.

What happened to the "models can't get anything right beyond 5 days" crowd? Haven't heard much about that lately. Is it because models have been remarkably accurate this year?

I'm not 100% sure but I believe the Jan 16 block was just a random ridge that got locked into place at the right time. Someone can correct me if my old memory is failing. 2013-15 featured a lot of stout scand ridges that behaved like blocks at times. The big Feb 2014 storm was a byproduct of the scand ridge.

Here's a visual. This is a run over run change and not an anomaly map. We're still pretty toasty in the east but you can see the trend of lowering heights in the eastern half of the conus. That's likely a sign that there's a cluster of EPS members moving things in the right direction.

EPS tossed us a cookie crumb. Trended towards rolling the trough in the west eastward and if you squint, go crosseyed, and wear someone else's glasses you could say that there is a slight hint of a -EPO starting to consider its options of making a return.

It's a combo of things. Pos tilt obviously hinders the ULL from energizing. The progression is disjointed with SLP way out in front to the NE of the ULL. Neg tilt earlier could capture the SLP and blow the whole thing up but we wouldn't be remotely close to being on the "good side". It's certainly possible we get a period of instability driven precip as the shortwave tracks by us but it won't amount to much.

Euro isn't going to do it this run but definitely an improvement with the northern stream trying to force the shortwave south. I can envision how the storm can track south of us. All the indices suck ass and it prob "shouldn't" snow next week but our area generally pulls off a jacked up convoluted event that "shouldn't" happen once a year or so.

I'm just trying to accept there's a chance that I may see snow fall from the sky. I don't disagree with your explanation on how it could be a decent event but you're describing how multiple things have to go right during a winter where absolutely nothing has gone right so... LOL

The 7-8th window is as good as any chance we've had this year. General consensus is to run SLP to our west but ensembles have many iterations that still drop some snow on us even with a west track. The sucky part is we have to root for a weak/disorganized system or we're toast (literally). EPS is just about 50/50 with at least a little frozen. Would be nice to pull something off (however small and messy) because it's tough sleddin' out there.

Bustin Jerk never breaks character