Bob Chill

NA is our acronym for North America. Full latitude trough. Get that neg tilt and close off on the way north and it's fireworks for someone. It was just an interesting panel. Total fantasyland stuff though

It's atypical but this is a big storm setup for the eastern US in general. One of the biggest NA troughs I've seen. Obviously it's an op out of range but this is an impressive panel

Agree on the rollercoaster. Lost some time on any flip but now (imho only) we're seeing some agreement on how we get out and gaining a little time in the process. Gefs is now odd man out but until all 3 global ens agree on progression and timing I'll be nervous. Give me 2 runs of the gefs showing the GoA ridge building and I'm all in. It's still not a great look but magnitudes better than the next 10 days...

I've never felt good on this one but it seems so unusual with how compact it is. Shortwaves like this are typically better

Yea, after growing up for decades with sudden death rules, I think the current rule is perfectly fair.

I always liked Cousins and loved Diggs as a terp. Was rooting for the Vikes. Amazing final drive. They earned it. Congrats

I posted this yesterday but feel even better about where the pattern is going. Imho- both the geps and eps are moving towards this look late Jan. Not a big dog but certainly faaaar better than where we are now.

EPS improved with the potential around the 17th. Meteos aren't out yet so I can't compare fine details run over run but overall it moved in the right direction. It's a tight window but looking half decent from afar. Gefs is odd man out with shuffling the pac ridge/trough. Eps and geps are rolling forward to a decent but not amazing look. Pleased overall as it appears the -pna death grip is easing.

Here's 0z eps spread during the 15-18th. About 10 members with more than a dusting so 20% see opportunity during this period. We'll see how that changes over the coming week

Both NAMs are showing a transfer now with slp off obx and that's the root of the SE jump. Something to watch on other guidance to see if it's nams being nams or something legit

We have a discrete window between the 15-18th when strong confluence develops to our north out into the Atl and a half decent cold airmass to work with. All ens agree on some version. The tricky part is it's transient. So once chance at something from what I see. Will be at least 4-5 days before we know if a shortwave is going to cooperate

Driving around for simple fun and sightseeing of any kind is really fun and relaxing. Doing it with a Hemi makes it even better

That transient confluence and favorable atlantic around the 17th is now showing up on all ensembles. Not sure how long the window will be but imho it's one of the better looks we've seen. All kinds of scenarios on the table with a big slow moving CAD high.

Good news is cmc is inch per hour rates. Bad news is it's the cmc

CMC is juicy. Temps crash below freezing by 7pm. I just tossed the gfs

Seeing Brady's year end with a pick 6 right in his face is bringing me immense immature pleasure

Verbatim that panel is a fail because the atl help is brief and back to square one by the end. However, spread is really starting to show up with both the pac ridge and confluence above us. I'm huggin the geps until something better comes along ETA: under the hood of that mean h5 panel is a good mix of half decent solutions to our north. About half are still crappy in the east but there are enough good ones to make it interesting with storm tracks.

I'd be thrilled with an active pattern and cold around. Ice/sleet/snow... don't care. Anything but rain and 50. 18z gfs shows the same Atlantic help as the ens around the 17th. Slowly seeing some consistency on our next real window.

@psuhoffman My best guess is we end up in this regime before the end of Jan. Geps is already there in 15 days. Eps/gefs are showing signs of moving this way. Latest weeklies look close enough.

@psuhoffman over the short/medium term we really couldn't draw up a worse hemispheric pattern. I'm avidly chasing less of a disaster. Today was a good day in modeland. String a few more in a row and it gets interesting again. It's been 3 weeks since the flip in mid Dec and all of our early fears from that flip are coming true. I just want out. I know we're not magically flipping to a big dog setup. I'm doubting a big dog setup happens at all but still 6-8 weeks to go before ruling it out. But for god sakes... give us a little cookie to chew on. Something.... anything...

@Ji Look what the geps does in the npac. That's a big change from where we are next 10 days. I'm thinking a cluster of eps members are seeing the same thing and that's why the run over run change on the EPS was so big. For the first time in a while we're seeing ens guidance in the nPac to not agree out in time in the npac. That nasty Aleutian ridge may be on the move before we think...

I don't disagree there but the changes start d10 and continue. A number of subtle hints being dropped that we won't be at war with the -pna for the entire next couple weeks. I'm not saying I like the setup d15 because I don't. However, the breakdown or relocation of the nPac ridge could be abrupt. My interpretation of the 12z eps is odds are increasing for a reshuffle in the nPac. Now we're seeing period of interest around the 17th to help pass time while fighting the -pna. My hunch is we're seeing the beginning of a longwave pattern shift showing up. Right now it's all washed and muddy because of time. If there is going to be a shift inside of 15 days the signal should grow from here.

EPS is start to at least move towards an improved Pac and reshuffle. For giggles take a look at d15 control h5. Scand ridge into Greeland...

Look at the run over run change in the Npac. It might be ugly but it's also a sig improvement from 0z...

Eps is picking up on a discrete cold shot with a longshot threat centered around the 17th. Like Cape mentioned earlier, the gefs has a similar idea. As long as there's something to track it keeps me sane in an otherwise insanely bad pattern