Bob Chill
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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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Best rates of the day but still mod not heavy. Roofs/grass etc caved.
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I'm not sure where we would go from the end of the 12z EPS but there was nice uptick in legit storms between the 18-21st. Another solid run in the books.
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Wintry appeal rapidly overtaking. Legit dendrites and grass just starting to cave. 34
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Back edge to the W of Winchester should pivot/back build as it pulls out. SLP is deepening and drawing in colder air.
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Yea, could be proximity to the beam changes accuracy? Anyways, 100% snow and seeing some decent dendrites. Winds just turned out of the north. The mix line seems to be following the wind shift line. Makes sense.
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This radar seems to be dead accurate with R/S mix line https://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxstate_br.php
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Temp just dipped below 35 and 100% snow... finally. Need some fronto love now.
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Surface this morning was a loud clue. Once I hit 41 I knew I wouldn't start off with all snow. Finally just about 100% snow. We'll see what happens.
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Still a light mix 50/50 -ra/sn but temp just dopped to 36. Inbound yellows BETTER BE SNOW DAMMIT
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50/50 sn/ra mix in Rockville. Looks like I should be good for the heavies.
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Looks like it's either already or about to dump in Manassas
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That area dropped from 39 to 34 in 30 minutes once the heavies moved in. Just starting to mix in my yard @ 38. Going as planned so far...
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Herdon area has dropped 2-4 degrees in the last 30 mins once the rates picked up. Now mid 30's after being in the low 40s earlier.
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SW of us had the benefit of great timing with precip early in the AM. We're dealing with exactly what we were thinking yesterday... Boundary layer will be annoying...
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Numerous reports 1-2.5" showing up west of 81 in VA/WVA
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Stupid GEFS reverted back to the trough west/ridge east. The difference between the GEFS and EPS is quite large right now. Even with the crappy looks late, there a # of solutions with snowfall including some real storms. Back in Dec when a good pattern showed up d10-15 there were hardly any storms on the ens but not the case right now. I'll just keep huggin the EPS. It's busy d10-15 and hopefully we are too.
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Dropped to 39 in the last 5 mins. Prob need to be around 36 before all snow takes over. Boundary warmth is legit but really shallow (thank god).
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40 and light rain in rockville... Hurry up and wait for the flip...
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Starting to see lines of yellow organizing in CVA west of 95. SLP is starting to crank a little.
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Man, that finger of fronto/lift through central MD is going to be pretty sweet here shortly. Omegas/DGZ on the soundings are impressive.. OB: 40 and virga
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I'll fill in for our old friend Mitch: Dumping on Skyline! https://www.nps.gov/customcf/webcam/dsp_webcam_image.cfm?id=81B46B8C-1DD8-B71B-0BF1193DC1276558
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Don't worry. In an hour this thread will be so busy you won't be able to keep up and even if you design a perfect troll post it will get buried with reports of "RIPPAGE!" or "White Meteors" or "OMG F me it's raining". Yea, something like that.
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Really cool stuff on the leading edge. Wall of precip has feathers due to dry air. Overcomes almost immediately. Juicy slug inbound.. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0Q-1-12
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At this point there's plenty of data to think about and understand how that applies to each person's yard. My climo nearly always puts me in the middle on these types of deals. 1-2" is where my head is at. A clean 2" would be quite a victory.
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That area of PC skies this morning did some damage. Chips fall time. Hope you get some heavies today.
