Bob Chill

This winter is right out of the 80s playbook for a "normal and acceptable" winter imo. It's like a mishmash of all non nino 80s winters that didn't torch. Even late 70s flavor during Jan. I'm already expecting the pdo to help or at least not hurt us next year. Odds of a neutral or favorable mean AO/NAO next year are above normal too if I'm thinking right.

I misspoke. I meant Feb 14. It was the only typical/classic style storm of both winters. We got a lot of weird snow setups that maximized. It was so easy back then lol but that's now how it works here so we paid a lot back since. Feels like we're on the front side of better winters for a while. This year reminds me a lot of the decent 80s winters. Last year was the one that could have been but sure AF wasn't haha

I was thinking the same but iirc that storm did a classic h5 close off in the deep south. It was a 1-2 punch because the closed ULL kinda dawdled. Dry slot lull was aggravating. CMC had the setup for a close off. Gfs and euro for most part setups would require a tpv phase for a bomb. That comes with excessive risk of a bust but would be fun AF for someone

It's a weird setup. Kinda similar to some of the Feb/Mar stuff of 2014 and 2015. Volatile tpv windshield wiper stuff. This run was better with trajectory and ridging but only because the tpv was better positioned AND the timing of the sweep underneath. Subtle shifts in either direction change the outcome drastically. Climo and experience says it won't be strung out like that. It will either be one sig wave or 2 separated ones. I can't count the # of drawn out mid/lr threats that ended up compact in reality. Maybe this time will buck that. Baroclinc zone and UL energy is kinda powderkeggy. I'm very interested. First setup all year that may let a bunch of us win. Even in the SE and NE subs. It used to happen I swear lol

This place gets too neurotic for me during the second half of winter. What's wrong with just accepting that multiple solutions are on the table an it would be a fools errand to marry any one of them? I actually hate seeing ops toss out a little group of good storms at 10+ day leads. Then whichever one shows the highest total immediately becomes the minimum bar. And when it actually does pan out... a 10 day lead op signal goes the distance... and it's 4-6" instead of fantasy 10-12", it's a failure and the mood of the board is so-so at best (or downright bitter at worst lol). It's getting old to put it lightly lol I think people are overthinking the NYC snowhole. Imo- it's just reversion. Why's aren't permanent. They're just required to "even things out". NYC prob broke every snowfall record during their decade heater run. That's not entirely free and you gotta pay some of it back. They'll go on another heater soon enough. I was totally unsurprised when the roidal -PDO suddenly broke down this year. It was time and repetitive storms (for weeks) took care of it like nothing lol. I think we make parts of this hobby way too complex. The more I simplify how I look at what's important (to me), the better my batting avg with my guesses. Less is more I think

I was out west from 92-99 so I didn't experience any of the 90s storms. Based on your maps and my maturity level back then, that storm would have made me mad lol

Hmmm... back to all snow... didn't see that coming. Column isnt as cooked as i thought. Maybe the heavy rates in a few hours are sleet and not zr. Or maybe all snow and I get a foot... that would be bad actually... Ji would want to move here

100% sleet now. Metal roof is clinkin and pingin. Plenty of precip on the way if the column can hold. Not cold enough for zr. 31-32 around the area. Accretion won't come easy

PSU just said triple phase is a lock. Which makes sense because the triple phase WDI is at ATHs

2.5" with 20 mins of sleet on top and a lull since 10am. Next round coming soon but snow is done for me most likely. Time to root for heavy sleet to hit my 3" guess.

Quite the paradox this place is. It exists because of snow enthusiasts but the vast majority of them are the least happy when it's about to snow or it's actually snowing. Lol. And the avg age is prob upper 30s low 40s.

Yea, AO is bonkers this time and will most likely produce. Agree 100%. Front side of big drops don't produce very often though. If I had my PC set up I could dig thru the data but iirc, it's at least 3 to 1 with 6+" events hitting on the eventual rise. Not KU flip stuff. Just on the relax in general. KU flip discussion will prob start up in 7 days or so lolol 87 is on the list as are a few others but unless I missed something, it's been fleeting and not top 5. When I mention analogs it usually means they've been hitting top 5 for at least several days. If 87 was up there I didn't catch it. I know SNE has been eying the 77 and 78 analogs lol. I like seeing them. They just weren't configured right for us overall but man they could have been big.

All models missed the precipitous AO drop at D10+. That thing just tank without saying sorry. It's the reason it's snowing today and why a legit stretch of possible warmth went poof. I think models have the general idea right for the 20th. Meaning a decent precip maker covering a good chunk of real estate is heading our way from the SW. It wouldn't take much for it to become an "easy lol" storm. From long range, imo only, a South whiff seems the least likely to me with this setup. All rain doesn't seem very likely either and a cohesive storm needs more than a little help but ingredients are there for it. We'll have a much better idea once all our snow washes away and the sun comes out again

It's a weird setup. A sweep of diffuse energy *potentially* rounding the tpv. Some iterations show multiple impulses and others more cohesive. The tpv can put a lot of oomph into forcing a ridge in front no matter what. The axis is all over the place with the globals for how energy surges north or even how the tpv evolves. I can see just about any outcome including a cohesive big dog. The flavor of winter has favored diffuse and messy/tricky. No big real estate storms and we've had some setups that could have popped and had more than 1 subforum do well lol. Hard to bet against the flavor imo but it's the most interesting setup we've had so far

I won't be surprised if the d10ish window fails. Analogs haven't been promising. That has been the case all year. The ensemble means look similar to some bigger storm windows but when you look under the hood, no good storms are getting analog'd. We'll except for one right now... Feb 2007 is popping pretty good. Many hated that storm because it was grape nuts instead of flakes lol but that glacier was one for the books. I started putting much more emphasis on analogs last 5 years or so and it's remarkably accurate (in a long lead sense). Even our best looks in real time didn't have analog support. Last year that pattern was door to door. I'm not pooping in cereal bowls though because history rarely duplicates verbatim and this year has been productive in it's own way. Current analog sets show a high chance at some sort of coastal during the 5 day period centered around the 20th but there has yet to be much support for a solid or classic storm. Feb 2004 is popping right now as well. The ground truth of that year looks terrible on paper but man it was close to something memorable... There is historical precedence for the upcoming window to be messier than at first glance. If that changes I'll update this line of thinking but for right now, my money is on a storm happening that can break in any direction with ease.

2.5" and a mix of sleet and snow. Column isn't wrecked yet but it's prob an uphill climb for additional accums other than sleet

It got my area pretty wrong. Widespread 2" down this way and at least 1" down along the NC border

Ridin the edge but still all snow. Prob gonna lull then sleet here shortly. 2" of potato glue. Smith mtn showing its face now. Beautiful morning

This is where i'm at. Pic is pretty bright. It's dark grey and mod snow sticking like glue everywhere. Nice

I'm ahead of you for now lol but thats not going to last. Up over an inch and snowing steady. Def an overperform on this early part. My only call for my yard was 3" max with a sleet topper and some ice that all ends up in the lakes within 36 hours lol

The ability to feel satisfied inside is becoming a lost art. I blame tiktok

Heh, I gotta go to Lutherville tomorrow for a Sunday service of a long time friend who lost the good fight. He was only 56 yikes.The chance of snow is making me feel bad for the first time maybe ever. But, as always, don't fret things you can't control, put your best foot forward, and let the chips fall. I'm gettin tired of driving. 1k mi round trip to Ohio in 36 hours, ran to Pilot Mtn NC and back yesterday. Now Lutherville and back sat/sun. I generally love road trips but right here right now... I'm wearing out

Gfs reminds me of Feb/Mar 2015. West track but coooold in front. Maybe we get our second 6+" storm all snow below freezing start to finish with HP closer to Bermuda than Maine lol. I was thinking when this pattern was showing long range that the CAD acronym will start becoming common on the board. It's not a pretty nor classic way to snow but my picky days are long gone Eta: not saying a mixed CAD solution is the most likely. Just that if it happens it will produce anyway

Seems like a multidecadal cycle there too. Such a hot and cold streak area over longer timescales. We suffered 7 years after 2016 but think about the 7 years prior to that.... maybe, just maybe, we back on a multi year streak. Why? Beats me lol

Idk man, seems waaay to advanced to me. I was thinking more like this but I can see a case for commodore 64 level stuff.