Bob Chill

I like that general LW pattern a lot. Precip isn't usually a problem unlike an amplified +pna/-epo pattern with the ridge axis over the west conus. The pna/epo pattern is colder but it difficult to get moisture laden storms. Lots of fronts and high-pressures without big synoptic systems. The pattern in your post has multiple ways for some juice in the system. I've been casually watching the cfs weeklies and they've been looking tasty for the second half of Feb for at least the past week. Similar to what you posted just 2 weeks later:

I wish weather worked that way lol but ma nature on has one way of doing things... like it or not, you get what you get and that's that... lol My climo down here is a mix of the MA and SE. There are several setups that aren't all that uncommon where my yard and the DMV gets all snow in the same similar range. I'll mix or rain a lot more but I'm looking really forward to the first clean decent sized event where we celebrate together. It'll happen. Just a matter of when.

3-6 idea down here still hanging on.... I want this to hit the DMV as much as you folks in the dmv but gotta root for the back yard too

Not sure how much things can shift with the time left but euro AI made a notable jump NW....

Not a model I like to hang my hat on with qpf but I'd be thrilled with the 12k nam's idea. Extrapolated 3k was decent too lol

I never bought it. I entertained it but nothing moved in that direction so it felt like a phantom. Of course I want it to be right but we've played this game a long time. I still see a relatively easy path to a 3-6/4-8 event and wont stop tracking that potential. We'll see how the next couple suites go...

Still barely hanging on to the 3-6" idea down this way. Plenty of time to tick to zero tho

Ai total qpf. ULL is south of Atlanta lol

Euro ai a tick weaker and further south. At odds with the gfs in a pretty big way at this point

Probably the same but higher chance of coastal influence so your boom scenario is better than me and buddy. This is tricky and I don't have much confidence one way or the other. Everything has to go right for a boom so I'll reserve that excitement for the short range

Because the trough is swinging like a pendulum, slp organizes when trough is pretty positive so having slp way out in front does make sense in this case

I'm thinking the gfs is overdoing it and our yards benefit somewhat from the northern stream closing off but not from the coastal CCB. Just a guess. Gun to head, 4-8 top end with 3-6 most likely. Will be high ratio snow on cold ground so we don't need a lot of qpf to have a nice event.

Upper levels are closed off so there will be a sharp gradient. The energy is in a tight ball and not stretched out. If closed low doesn't dig as far south, the entire mass moves north with it. That's the most likely path to a dc hit.

Cmc gets booted east unfortunately

Looks like I gotta get some chains and 50 gallons of diesel fuel for my tractor. Imma be rich. They don't plow much out here hahahaah

It might have worked. Really close but hard to say. CMC will extrapolate it for us shortly

Nothing about that run looked like it was going to work. Progressive as F lol

Back yard post for my southern neighbors... and it's just getting started lol

Would probably get to neutral/neg in time for something similar to the gfs

Gfs did great job during JFM 2014&15. the mid range with fast moving progressive northern stream waves. Euro did well inside of 72 hours but the gfs was the one you wanted on your side in the mid range. That said, the gfs and euro haven't been that far apart with the current threat. Its just one of those setups where a little means a lot on the ground.

They don't plow much out here in the sticks lol

That's a beaut. Literally went half way to the gfs in one run. The cips analog list is looking more realistic now heh

Extremely. Unlike the last storm, this one basically blows up right at our latitude. Last one was mature and loaded with moisture well before the approach. This storm is going to be explosive wherever it rapidly deepens. That's a lock. Where that happens depends entirely on how the upper levels transpire

I'll have to see the euros h5 vort panels to compare but right now the differences between the euro and gfs are pretty small. Gfs is just a little quicker to close off and go negative. Like what I said recently with the euro trough pointing at 1 o'clock and the gfs at high noon. If the euro moves that direction at 0z it gets real interesting