Bob Chill

Good stuff man. I'm at the point in this game where the type of potential storm determines my desire to get involved. I'm 100% done wasting time on low probability stuff. If that's all there is, I just don't have it in me anymore. ROI is awful. On the flip side, I have pent up desire to watch something from longer leads. So for now, I'll monitoring ens means in the 7-10 day range literally for the first time this year.

That's a really tuff question... not sure. I recommend starting a thread asking if another thread should be started.

It's just an op run but when you loop h5 vort panels from 174 to the end, it's a pattern on a loop. Other than everything, nothing can go wrong. Until something goes wrong, I'm in on this long track now

On the 12z gfs, the setup is obvious by 174. Looked like a solid winter storm on the way for the east. Big precip field as expected. So far this year, I haven't been close to as interested as I am now. Gfs may or may not have the right shortwave to grow but it doesn't matter. Give us that upper level setup, let it spin and wobble for 10-14 days, and the odds of a region wide warning event with cold temps is as good as it gets without classic blocking.

Honestly, this is what I've personally been waiting for. Not volatile fast movers with vertical approach vectors. Narrow stripes annoy the F out of me. From an odds and activity standpoint, I absolutely love where models are taking us after the brief warm break. Lot of time to kill tho....

It's in San Diego at 186. Check out that broad bowl trough too. These setups create decent size precip fields when they energize.

People can laugh at you all they want. My life changed once I started being really really nice to wx models. In the heart nice. Can't fake it. Once I did that the MoCo deathband was reborn. People can say whatever they want but they all know my yard jacked in the burbs multiple times for no apparent reasons. Most evident with Jan 2016. Yea, keep thinking that's a coincidence. One day everyone will see the light.

Come on dude. Way too early for that. Go time after 12z today tho. Maybe put in a reservation for a pin and we'll go from there

Been thinking the same thing. Way too far out to care much about details for me so the storm itself isn't worth discussing but the fact that both op and ens are showing an active (legit) gradient pattern is noteworthy. We've seen the look on ens a few times but ops always looked different and by the time the broad trough period moved forward into the mid range, it was just regular progressive quick ridge/troughs and not a big "bowl carve". This upcoming window (imo) is starting to really grab my attention. We do best with "broad bowls" with a dome of heavy cold air sprawling north of us. Eta: when I say "we do best" I mean snow comes the easiest. Not the biggest potential or high end storms. That's been off the table all year pretty much in the east. Eta2: this post ties back to my thoughts on available storm vectors. The Fri deal is literally a single lucky one lane vector. I never liked it once as I really do hate those setups. Not worth the time like 95% of the time. Broad bowls open up all of our good vectors of approach. Every single one. And the longer it repeats, odds get really good.

Holy f you're right... it's hard to accept something can be that bad but alas, gfs has pulled it off

Ji's fave model progression when a new suite comes out... encouragement from multiple models followed by a steaming pile when it counts the most

Damn dude. No more pornhub? Oof

Verification is on a global scale and the spread is pretty tight. It's been long speculated that different globals are better than each other at different things. Depends on near infinite variables so broad brush verification scores don't really tell us much. Especially when talking about a 50 mile difference in storm track or whatever

I'd like to see the eps qpf panels with the light snow event only and not the coastal. It may have come west but my yard is banking on pregame show

Not exactly. It's a dance. How far the upper energy slides south is tricky. The pieces dance together more than push each other around. We want lift overhead at the same time the developing low is pushing moisture into it. Left to its own devices, the arctic energy is going to be super light. Not juicy at all. Throw some ocean moisture west or northwest into the lift and it becomes an "event"

It's an unusual setup. Conventional thinking makes it look like waa precip on the north side of a developing low but that's not it so it's going to behave different @WxUSAF crushed it with his earlier post. We have lift overhead and a good column for quality snow. Arctic energy is notoriously dry. But the sharp trough and backing flow downstream could juice it up. Wait and see for me. Not sure that piece can be dialed in until the early coastal development is locked in

Models are converging on a climo type outcome. A bit disappointing but no surprise. Still time blah blah blah but these setups have a long history here. If 12z euro slides east with the coastal snow I'm dropping hopes of coastal love in my yard. Kinda hard to get upset at the most common outcome being portrayed

The whole argument is stupid af. LWX uses the term "model trends" all the Fn time. Why is this even being debated? Who are these people? I swear there's contaminated drinking water somewhere. I think cockumblockuminfection should call 936-1212 and argue with wx53 about it

The storm personality has changed quite a bit the last 3 days. It's still northern stream dominant but digs really deep and ignites the low pretty far south off the coast. That's new and why everyone is excited. Before it was a typical northern stream shortwave that sets things off too far north for us. Common in Nina's. This storm is on the rare side as is

For the type of setup, this one is trying hard af to hit on all cylinders. It could become the new "remember that unblocked northern stream phased luck bomb in 2022?" every time another pops up. Jan 2000 has been beat to death anyway

This is the best 18z gfs run I've seen today by far

The 2-4 potential isn't really a low odds "pull off" kind of deal. The upper energy is coming no matter what. How much juice it can work with is attached to the coastal for a boom scenario but it can work with current slp track as is.

I'm becoming focused on the escape hatch polar/ns interaction now. The big coastal can still blast us but until that's locked, escape hatch is looking pretty tasty. Cold high ratio snow followed by very strong winds. What's not to like?

Closed ridges can be fun. Very vigorous high pressures that can dump 3' of sunshine in less than 24 hours

IIRC, certain lake effect setups can create squalls with rotation and "snowspouts". Need this in my yard STAT