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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Considering this entire evolution was an amped warm sector with little chance at the cold beating precip, recent developments are attention grabbing. I haven't seen a set of runs in the last 6 that didnt lower heights in the east leading in.
  2. Bob Chill
    It's the type of event that I like. Mostly an overunnner and not developing synoptics that gets us. Models can hone in on these further out than anything like this weekend. The more a front aligns W-E, the better our chances. We have some good history here with this type of event. My main concern is It's pretty abrupt after the warmup and it's the first cold air to hit. No models showed this 3 days ago. It was universally amplified and warm for this event. Not anymore and it's not far away. Interesting.
  3. Bob Chill
    This is a pretty good setup for a "lower stress" event. Seems a bit quick but the trend to press down heights in the east started 2 days ago. Getting interesting now and it seemed like a big longshot just a day or 2 ago
  4. Bob Chill
    I'm a really good room reader. I can literally feel your anguish as you prod thru iterations of the same general question in hopes of someone saying it's definitely going to dump in a week and not to worry We discuss generalities here really well. Complete piece by piece longwave analysis any time something looks like more than a shutout. You constantly try to drill one level deeper into specifics at times when generalities are still pretty muddy. Real frustration and unhappiness comes thru strong on your posts. Can be hard to read sometimes honestly. I'm saying this because I feel bad for you at times. Not because I'm a big meanie who wants to call everyone out
  5. Bob Chill
    We've wasted a few great ones since but that was the last classic hit. Last year had some great blocking. Upper air looked great plenty but when you opened up the 850 temp panels... ooof.... what a disaster. Lol
  6. Bob Chill
    Ninos often feature the pineapple connection or a stream of moisture and/or shortwaves from HI to Socal. When storms enter the country in socal it's WAAAAY different than when they enter in Seattle. That's the primary reason we like ninos. The further south a storm enters the conus, the better chance of it staying south of us. Plenty of ninos never get that though and it can happen in any enso state. When i read your posts and questions it always looks like a constant search for 1+2=3 in weather. You gotta move past that quick here. It has never and will never work that way. We've wasted ungodly good setups and gotten hit flush in some of the dumbest. Never ever expect anything to do anything in particular no matter what Eta: when I see a nice blocked pattern with a 50/50 or whatever, all it tells me that there is a real CHANCE at a big storm. Not that there will be a storm. And even if there is, a lot still has to break right to take advantage of the longwave setup. When models spit out a big blocked storm a week out, it makes sense to me. That's it. When models spit out an unblocked coastal ripper big hit a week out, it will never make enough sense to me to expect anything.
  7. Bob Chill
    Blocking changes the flow. Especially where it counts. When something is blocking the flow, we get confluence overhead or height lines running W-E. We live for that. Unblocked flow is just a steep hill most times. Nothing in the way so you better be in ground zero or you get zero. Make sense?
  8. Bob Chill
    There are a few nice setups in progressive NS flow without blocking so I'm not saying it's a doom thing at all. You're hearing me harp on the broad trough. That's the most visible way to get into a warning storm pattern. Broad troughs and flow underneath elongates everything. Moisture streams way out in front of even weak shortwaves in the south. Get in the way of that and a 1003mb low can still drop a foot here. Long duration overunners happen here. PD2 part 1 was just that. Not apples to apples at all but sometimes the hose points at us and we snow for a day or 2. Not hot and heavy like a compact ball of energy. Just steady light/mod snow that keeps piling up. Sure would like to see a pattern set up in early Feb that can deliver that. If ens/ops lose the broad trough idea completely and go back to fast moving steep hills, I'll go quiet pretty quick.
  9. Bob Chill
    In general. We get fast/progressive northern stream flow more than any other in winter. Enso doesn't matter other than cold enso favoring MORE of what we always get a lot of. Lol. It's why I don't get interested much with years like this except inside of 3 days. No storm is real outside of that. Especially if it's touchy (almost always is). I was certain all week my yard was weak this weekend. I no longer expect different results with these deals. I've been doing this too long to allow myself to get pulled into anything that isn't worth the time investment
  10. Bob Chill
    Progressive northern stream is a staple here and unfortunately it has a huge bag of tricks to find ways to skip us. Geography problems are unfixable. Feb should provide some better battlegrounds from what I'm seeing. TPV intrusions at the same time more springlike shortwaves start making some moves along the southern tier. If we keep getting tall/steep uphill approaches it's prob going to be a continual problem. Always is. Get a couple broad carves and set up and move W-E oriented battleground and we can talk bigger or "easier" events. Pretty clear that a repeating current pattern isn't going to work well this year. Things aren't aligned properly.
  11. Bob Chill
    My absolute favorite part of skiing backcountry during a storm cycle in the rockies... Just hiking in snow fog is otherworldly. It's where cold smoke term was born. Literally looked like a forest fire was in process and only happens when it's really cold. When you decend in that type of snow it looks like a smoke cloud chasing you the whole way. Oh man do I miss it but there is no end to the means meaning no matter how many times you get lucky to experience it, it will always leave you chasing more and a bit sad when it shuts off
  12. Bob Chill
    Definitely work on this. We all have some of it in us. However, it's paradox of sorts. No matter where you are in life, someone is always richer, more powerful, better educated, better looking, more snowier, and on an on. Life really is only as complicated as you make it. I joke around that every yard is dead to me except mine. It's actually quite true from how I process this stuff. There isn't a single thing to be gained by envy/jealousy related to things you have zero control over. It's a mental prison. The quicker you can shake it the better. These thought loops come up all over the place in every aspect of life. It can effect decision making at an important time if you let it own you.
  13. Bob Chill
    Tracker knows exactly what to look for and how to present it with neutral/reasonable narration. It's really pretty awesome. Especially during the week when I literally have 5 min to rip and read.
  14. Bob Chill
    @psuhoffman just won the interwebs with his meme of memes. I'd of spaced out some of those for maximum duration/effect but not psu.... he just drops the hammer, then the mic, and slowly walks out of the room backwards grinning shoulder to shoulder.
  15. Bob Chill
    Think of it like this. Our snow climo has always been and always will be streaky. We will forever sit in multi year periods of depression. It's just how it is. Every decade since the 60s has horrendous periods and compact crazy periods. Half of the compact crazy periods are completely unexpected. 2013-16 stretch was the compact period for the 20teens. 2016 was expected but 2013-15 was an anomaly in a good way. Incredible really. And it will happen again. I have no 8dea what 2020s hold in store for us but we're literally 2 good storms away from this winter being forever remembered as one of the good ones. It's already out of the dud gang. And nothing good was waiting for us thru the entire summer, fall, and Dec. But that's changed... A LOT. All I'm saying is if you look at this particular Jan as a frustrating disappointment you're either a glutton for punishment or aren't playing the game right. When a 1 in 10 or 20 year winter is the only way to be rewarded with this hobby, the roi is so bad it makes no sense
  16. Bob Chill
    [RR enters chat] You've had that since 15... maybe not [RR exits chat and pm's leesburg a deck pic]
  17. Bob Chill
    This winter has been damn good so far if you compare it to history here. We all knew this type of predominant pattern was coming. I knew it in July. Lol. But it has overperformed already. Embrace that a little more and let go of low probability dream chasing to compensate. Thank me sometime down the road
  18. Bob Chill
    Root for the broad bowl. Northern stream "V" patterns are common AF and so is the outcome here. We can get one or more in any winter month or enso state. They are winter bread and butter in the US. We're in a disadvantaged but not evicted spot for those. All the wish casting in the world won't make a dent in that fact
  19. Bob Chill
    Well duh. All I see is northern stream. If you can figure out how to turn a shortwave that enters the conus around or north of Seattle or Boise into a Miller A please do it. Otherwise, we are who we thought we were
  20. Bob Chill
    Why is it painful? We've been on the brink of a shutout since it first showed up. Now things are looking better here. You want to rush through snow in your back yard?
  21. Bob Chill
    I'm with you on that. We can't get storms like this one because of unfixable disadvantages... geography and latitude. They don't get ones like this very often. Insanely strong storm and cold cold powder to the coast. They are truly in the perfect spot. Plus, it snows somewhere on the planet every single day. Who cares
  22. Bob Chill
    This argument needs to die. We can call it a Miller A. Doesn't matter. For our purposes it has always looked and behaved on the ground like a Miller B does here. That's why I haven't tracked it. It's very amplified. If the trough wasn't digging so deep it would have been a Miller B screwbie with the oh primary
  23. Bob Chill
    It's a volatile setup. Any rapid developing strong low off the east coast is hard to model. Especially when it starts off as basically nothing thru the deep south. It's a tall order and many years away for a storm like this to be well handled by guidance even just 3 days out. Also, the shifts in track from a mileage standpoint is really just noise. What, 50-75 mile wobbles every 6 hours? That's really nothing and well within any reasonable margin of error for current tech. Unless it affects 50 million people and many weenies. If this storm was modeled off the coast the whole time nobody would care about a 300 mile shift. Lol
  24. Bob Chill
    Absolutely love the E-W orientation of the gradient along with blue pushing into NC. Yet another piece of data supporting a broad/cold trough with shortwaves undercutting and bumping into it as they move more horizontal instead of vertical. I love this stuff. Next best thing to a classic block/coastal setup. The way to get a big storm is a 1-2 punch or just having something really elongated and aiming a hose at us for 24-36 hours. No CCB or "violence". Just steady mod snow for hours with light winds. Sounds terrible right? Lol. If a big storm were to happen in the next 2 weeks, that's the way.
  25. Bob Chill
    Euro doesn't have a shortwave like the gfs in Cali but how could it? Lol. Just give us the big bowl for 2 weeks. Shortwaves will b there for it.
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