Bob Chill

Another reason I hate missing that storm. How can you even comprehend more than full weenie when you missed the ONLY legit triple phaser in the last 50+ years? That storm set the upper limit of full weenie from a nuts and bolts perspective. I'll just have to guess but I'm pretty good at this game. Some may say my weenie has been pretty big in the past.

Sat deal has looked workable in some fashion in general since it showed up. No feelings one way or another yet. However, if it lines up for even just an OK event at best by Thurs, I'm going full weenie. Maybe more than full weenie.

I'm a genetic country person apparently. Never accepted it fully until past few years. I'm sick of the chase here man. My patience tank for this place is just about empty. You might have heard me drop ideas about moving to Kerr or Gaston lake area. That's changed. We're looking at 50 acre properties just east of Smith Mtn lake. I don't think I'll ever forgive myself if I don't lay family roots on land that can be hunted, fished, and farmed for generations. I should have done this 20 years ago but I was trained to think a certain way growing up here. The older I get, the more I realize my mistake. Better late than never tho

I missed it. It was during the end of my first season in CO. I was so blown away by rockies snowstorms that the 93 storm went mostly unnoticed by me. It was only years later when I really understood what happened when I started feeling like I missed something big. I missed Jan of 96 for the same reason.

Another thing I just thought of is moisture content/delivery. Juicy Jans are rare. Juicy Mars are not. A 1000mb low on the right path can drop a foot without a bunch of synoptics going crazy. I think of this time of year like a sponge. Gets all dripping wet down south before heading north but when it bumps into a roadblock... or dense dome of cold air, the big squeeze and dump ensues. March snow climo def has a good side.

When you get big amplification, all storm types are possible. Even CAD March. The type that would work here prob can't be high end stuff because the pattern is OK but fighting rain gets harder now in Mar. So big phasers are prob the least likely to produce. This is just my quick gut feel on the look. Highest chance for a "big" event won't include a big low pressure. The thermal boundary is going to be intense. Common in March but models are really honking here for a battle. Southern weenies are prob thinking tornados already. But for here, all we need is confluence and warm air advection/overrunning from the SW. WSW can be the ultimate trajectory because the angle trains better than more SW or even S. If models start showing anything like that, my focus shifts quick.

Nah, that was a triple phase. Those storms require 2 very anomalous things and not just one. Can't happen without massive amplification. We can pencil in a check mark there. The next check mark may not happen b4 either of us are gone... you need 3 shortwaves embedded in the STJ, NS, and arctic jet to pull together at just the right time and blow the F up. We can barely get a messy stj/ns phase to work.... triple? Don't set a bar there or life will become pointless lol

Could you imagine being air air molecule south of the Aleutians? It's trip to the US includes a retro trip NW, arctic circle pass, and free fall due south thru Canada before pulling Gs around the base in the US. Seriously, wild upper level setup. Something big should happen somewhere

It's all subjective but common interest forums are the real power of social media imo. Niche hobbies or any unusual serious interest (we all have at least 1) are usually hard to find others to share thoughts and ideas with. There's not a person on my street who gives a F about tracking snowstorms. I know that for sure. Lol. For those reasons, and the way I personally use social media, it really is enriching, rewarding, and increases my knowledge base of things that are important to me. When I have free fun time I like to joke around and have fun. That's satisfying too. But I watch myself and keep myself in my lane. There are more rabbit holes in social media than actual rabbits on earth. And very few add any value to your life or help you in any way. The absolute strangest part of socal media to me is how many millions of people are rabidly interested in other people's problems. We all gotz problems man. Maybe instead of caring about other people's problems and spending hours a day on them it would be smarter and far more rewarding to work on your own instead. Eta: I'm OT'ing the F out of a wx disco thread. I've looked around at the next few weeks and there's enough cold moving around to get it done with some luck. That's all I got.

Sad? You're doing it exactly right. I no longer spend any time on time suck social media. Even here it's not wasting my time. Sports groups are just shouting matches and egos. I mean it's fun if you have time for it. Tik tok may be the greatest time waster ever invented. My 25 year old daughter disconnected permanently for that reason. I'll bet you spend a lot of time outdoors and working with your hands to drive satisfaction and reward in your life. Not 100% sure but I get that vibe. I'm exactly that. I don't even watch network TV at all anymore. I'm done with that dumb stuff. I have bigger plans and they all include the natural world. Not a 4x6 rectangle screen looking for people to make fun of.

Exactly. Giving up means you are no longer interested in playing. Not that it's actually over. Not a person or computer here can get sensible wx right beyond 5 days or so. If you know enough to be certain that it's over, then it's different. But nobody does. Prob not even the wx itself. I always keep a casual eye open during dead space because I know for certain I don't know much. Lol. Big boy climo near the cities generally ends by mid March. Once that window is clear, it gets much easier to give up because climo is closing the door whether I like it or not. Lol

Ultimately, there's only 1 way in niche forums.. And it is very bumpy and bruisy. It's super fun at first getting involved with storms in at any level. Then you slowly get battered and bruised by the sadistic nature of winter wx here and old timers like messing with new people. It's painful really but a rite of passage. You'll get made fun of along the way to add insult to injury. Only once you reach capitulation can you become a good poster top to bottom. When your expectations start lining up with the type of event regardless of what models say, you're halfway there. I'm not talking about schleprock downer expectations. Just reasonable ones that have a high probability of being in line with ground truth. Model watching alone will set you up for failure nearly every time. You have to apply what the models shows to the brutal honest reality of where you live. Until you capitulate there, it's hard to have fun. Very. And if you're never having fun here, everybody that can read a room knows/sees it and it's not a good look. The harder part of becoming a good poster in any corner of the internet is being able to read a room. I mean read it for real and do it quick and accurately. If you're not getting the results out of the experience you think you deserve, the answer lies within. Blame cannot be pointed outward. If it is, the solution is getting further away and not closer. I got beat up pretty good at eastern and rightfully so. You earn everything in forums like this. Million different ways to do it. It all starts with reading a room properly and adding value. Value comes in all shapes and forms. Technical wx analysis is only a piece of it. All posts can't be good. I've made 1000s of crappy ones. But I added a lot of value to more than offset that. Value comes easy when your primary goal for participation is to have fun no matter what the outcome. Think about that.

The original owner of my house had property width concrete and brick terraces built in the back yard with large beds. Would take 10 sticks of dynamite to remove then. I absolutely love them but they used to get away from me all the time with weeds and overgrowth. To the point that I started hated something I loved... I made a pact to never ever let it happen again about 5 years ago. Come to find out, I only needed to make one minor time adjustment.... mulch weekend... Like the entire country, I used to mulch during the big sale in April. Too late! And we all do it! Now, I knock out full spring cleaning and mulch mid March. Also lay down some Preen before spreading and I only have to weed maybe twice tops during prime grow season and it takes maybe a half hour. The difference is unbelievable. I feel so dumb for not doing it back in 02 when I bought the house. My neighbors on both side have talked to me about how I'm keeping it so tight so I told them it's as simple as mulch weekend date. They BOTH said that mulch is too expensive in March. LOL! I mean what? A buck a bag extra? Most of us get away with 65 bags or less. So 65 dollar savings to create multiple hours of extra weeding, sweat, and frustration? Is that really a grand bargain?

On another note, your posting style has changed last few years and I personally love it. I'm so over cheerleading parties. Around here, with our copious problems getting things to work, it's like having a pep rally at a school with no clubs or teams. Just rah rah. Lol You have been straight calling it like you see it. Good, bad, or ugly and condensed/to the point. I've def been part of the rah rah over the years but not the last 4-5 years. Brutal honesty and mindfulness of bias is a powerful way to to look at anything really. You saved me a lot of time this year and it is much appreciated.

Its exceptionally tuff to feel a lick of good about any event that approaches downhill from the west. Almost always a phantom as it's a fight instead of a dance to create lift/precip. I know you know this. General comment. I'd gladly take whatever but this is a really bad way in general to get anything done

One of the reasons we're so late to the party is relentless deer grazing in my neighborhood. Our neighborhood backs up to creek and park systems so there are deer highways everywhere and they aren't nearly as picky at eating as they're supposed to be. Lol. I used to think I needed a full 6' fence plus whatever else to keep them off the veggies but I had it wrong. You can live alongside deer no problem if you make it inconvenient and uncomfortable to access. You prob know a helluvs lot more about this than me tho. They ran thru our yard all year last year and never got into much. Some of which had no netting or anything like that.

Now that 2 of my kids are on their own and my other 2 are almost on their own, wife and I started OUR life in the yard last year. Lol. I always stay on top of my yard in general but we've never put the time and sweat into the mini-farm we've wanted. That changed last year. I didn't post pics because we were only half done with infrastructure. This year will be fully functiona by the end of May and it's going to make some people laugh I think. Short list of produce: tons of greens, tomatoes, hot and mild peppers, garlic, onions, cukes, squash, zukes, and potatoes last year. This year were adding pea and bean trellises and fruit towers along with general bed expansion. Lol. I'm so excited I've been working outside every day over 45 degrees.

I'm absolutely not in cancel mode. I just flipped the switch to show it to me inside of 5 days (heights, blocking, cold, storms, doesn't matter). Every encouraging look this year beyond d5 since Jan cold set in has generally deteriorated. The further out the good look, the bigger the deterioration. The sucky part is it hasn't been a collapse with the good looks. Just that we don't have a lot of wiggle room and heights have just refused to cooperate enough to get the job done. I'm a bit doubtful that personaliy trait this year is going anywhere. I like the AO height trend too. Let's see what it looks like when it counts. I'm not going anywhere but I'm not tracking phantoms and ghosts either

Def wasn't a personal dig. I can literally feel his transition this year though and I haven't been active much. We've all been there. It's a rough hobby for results. If you are an instant gratification or efficient results oriented person, you're in the wrong corner of the internet. Lol.

Just an observation this year... feels like MA winter wx chasing has turned you from Weather Will to Weather Won't. It's a brutal game. Ji's therapist ended up needing therapy after trying to fix him.

We had a lot of winters like the last few in the 70s and 80s. Especially the 80s. I don't disagree we are losing on the margins because of avg temps. That's obvious AF. Ive been used to compressed cold, boring winters, and early springs since birth. Lol Still not a shutout pattern or early spring. The struggle for snow has been real all year up and down the east coast except for the postage stamps and 50 mile wide stripes that hit south of us. At this point, I strongly doubt that changes but dumb luck can never be ignored around here. At least not completely

Gfs is incrementally ticking the confluence to our N/NE northward last 4 runs. Still a long ways away but run over run adjustments show the gfs backing away from really pressing down on us.

These types of storms like the gfs is showing don't really need a carving setup in advance. Those are when cold approaches from the west. When something is pressing on top, it can bully its way down as cold air is very dense and confluence keeps pushing and pushing. It's completely reasonable to entertain the possibility of winning next weekend as it's not a huge stretch. That said, I wish we lived further north.

Time kill periods suck and why I don't post much during them . Things look half decent in general after next weekend but that's a long ways off and nothing is getting locked in for a while if there is anything to lock. Emotional drift takes over and gut feelings become more important than actual data. So flavor of the day mood create new realities every morning until the overnight reset.

Ignore cmc temps. GEPS as well. Always way cold in mid/long range. Don't know why but if the cmc is the only model showing cold enough to snow, your shovel will gather dust.