Bob Chill

I'm diggin the 15-25th period in general. The clunky frustrating progression so far makes sense in general. I wasn't very optimistic for the front half of Dec when I went out of town. But I've been pretty optimistic that it will all shift into a Dec longwave patten we haven't seen since 2010. Right on time friend! You've been killing the disco last few weeks. Kept my tracking down to 5 mins a day. Go time now

What took you 14 days took me 14 years Lesson: don't be me

I never post my mug on the net but my wife took this pic and it's just awesome. Between being blurry, ambiguous, and whacky 1948 context... this is a good one to drop my guard on Tractor is a 1948 Ford 9N. I've become really good friends with a Vietnam vet who lives full time on a 15 acre tract down the rd. He loves when I run these old machines. There's a 1k lb box blade dragging behind the tractor grading the drive just out of the pic. Life is a trip man. I never saw any of this coming just 7 months ago. Just wild.

Got back from smith mtn last night and should be in Rockville until the holiday week kicks off. I bought an inexpensive planking mill for my chainsaw and took it to some oaks and pines. It will make your arms strong but oh man is it addicting. This white oak log is 12' long and 14" dia. Heartwood reveal cut really got me.

The first fat rail is free. Break out the wallet and credit cards after

We can snow mid month no prob but it will prob come in some unexpected weird way. Let the Intermountain west get dumped on for a while. I lived out there for 7 years. 3 ninas iirc. All 3 had decent Nov and Dec snow before a nasty +pna went up and bluebirded the snow for weeks (and ruined the conditions). Often we'll into Jan. Continued happening after I left too. One thing we haven't had in many ninas recently is a real block or stable hl displacement. +pna isn't going to overcome that alone. That's part of why I went big for snowfall contest. Nina -pnas are not static at all. Mid winter +pna ridges are just as normal after the neg cycle runs. My optimism is there. Let the pna go up when it really matters here... after Dec 15th or so.... ETA: the one Nina in the rockies that blew my mind was 95-95. 150" of snow in Jan alone. At one point it was like 6-12" day for 10 days. You know what I learned? Blocking matters out west too. Ninas can be very dry mid winter in the rockies. Not that year tho... and not here either....

I have no time to do it but I had a light bulb go off with decent snows before Dec 15th. There aren't a lot over multiple decades but if there is any common denominator, it's prob a -epo period leading in. Temps are the dagger always and it's hard to get -15 departures with a warm heat sink ocean nearby. What can overcome that completely? My money is modified arctic air needs to be in place first. I'll look eventually unless someone beats me to it

We all have our own tolerance for tracking long range so this is just how i see it. We are witnessing exactly what you would expect on ops given the general UL nina pattern in early Dec. We don't do well ever no matter how good it looks. This is where the human quantum brain is better than computers. All flawed tracks and setups will fail and the amazing ones will try hard to fail. But what is a fail? Model said snow 5-6 days out and it rained instead? That's an ingrained model fail and not a storm fail imho. Once we get to the last 10 days of Dec, a medium range threat that looks good and fails is worth the disappointment. Right now it's all an exercise in disappointment if you expect a meaningful storm that sticks everywhere for a few more weeks. This is just my way and why I'm not engaged in or looking at something discreet. Not a good time investment

Idk man, SE flow in the mids right off the ocean with a marginal start in early Dec is money in my book. And by money I mean all in on the under

Honestly, suppression in Dec is unlikely. At least in a classical sense meaning a legit coastal that scoots south of RIC or something like that. Something weak and convoluted can snow where it shouldn't with a big block. Front sides of big NAO flexes typically aren't productive here. I parsed the data with storms over 10" some years ago and did NAO graphs of the week leading in. Something like 75% happened with a relaxing anomalous NAO. Just a few during the flex stage or peak stage. Plenty were neutral during snowfall. Positive NAO flukes are there too. My total WAG is there won't be suppression of a moderate or large coastal that hits the south only. If there is a legit coastal we will prob end up rooting for suppression lol. Once the NAO displaces enough cold air in the east, anyone will be in the game for a small or moderate event imho. It's just a timing thing at that point. South looks to be unusually ripe for an early season snowfall. They love giant neg nao's and a good wave out of the TN valley can get them pretty good without big synoptics

@frd when teles are rockin already, we don't want the arctic hounds. Especially in Jan. The see saw can saw right down to Raleigh when everything lines up in anomalous fashion. Artic air is dry AF too. Look back on years with cross polar and a west based block. There are a few since 1970 and they are all mostly dry here and to our north. Grit and Raleigh wx and SE crew root for different stuff. When they love what they see we usually "just like it until it breaks our hearts" lol

Times have changed and our area would lose on the margins or marginal events. Hard to reminisce about 60s winters nowadays because the base state that made it all possible is gone. However, a warming planet also increases moisture content. We're seeing that all over the place in real time with epic flooding and even minor storms dumping an unexpected ocean small areas. So cold/wet periods are likely to be more wet than before. That can offset climo lines shifting north when the pattern is ripe. Boom and bust will only get boomier and bustier

I'm wondering if a 1960s analog is entering the chat. And to get even crazier, maybe this is the beginning of a 60s type teleconnection cycle...

Counterintuitive in Dec but man, upper levels gon crazy it seems. Also, a honking -2.5 or deeper NAO is not good here. That's not when it commomly snows. Always gotta wait for the relax towards neutral. If a big -nao just parks and wobbles, a lot of people will change their mind with exactly how much -nao they want in their Wheaties lol

AO is the key and not the NAO for longer term stable winter patterns in the east. NAO domain space can make numerical readings muddy. Focusing on the NAO is 2 weeks out tops (imo only). AO is the granddaddy beyond that. I found an old attachment in my files. This isn't the better stuff I put together but it's a great snapshot. Basically, a Dec ao reading below 1.5 pretty much locks in more blocking. Pretty classic look rn and a lot of classic data to get excited about. At least for being squarely in the game. Actual production has less to do with the AO and more to do with our dicey location.

If the block overperforms first half of Dec, I'll prob be staying at smith mtn most of the month

Rule of thumb with Nina's and favorable patterns is having the npac ridge axis aligned further east than classical placement. 95-96 really shows this as. When the top of the ridge allows "downhill flow" in Western Canada, it keeps our cold air source intact. Cold continental air flows down into the rockies and bleeds/moderates eastward. More laterally than usual with blocking too instead of digging and releasing. Our best storms have "wide and thin" high pressure to our north aka "banana high" because its shaped like a banana. We rarely or never get that even with a block when the npac ridge is in a more classic Nina position. The trough in the western conus is very hard to fight back enough for easy wins unlike people north (as close as philly). The margins here are always a razor edge in any and all setups. We have always and will always be more prone to fail that win here. That part sucks. What doesn't suck is we do get flush hits with the most powerful winter storms in the eastern half of the continent. Places as close as Ohio would kill for a coastal they can't get. I focus on the good and we have it pretty good with continental weenieism

We worry about mids with a 1028 over lake placid in the middle of Jan during a good winter It's obviously not happening but I did like the look of a TN vly overrunner last week on ens guidance. That type of synoptic can do a foot+ without any kind of modest or strong slp pass. That's the killer here. Easterly flow in the mids is no Bueno. Overrunners have SW flow in the mids. Just need to be on the right side. Simple right! It's always easy here!

Personally, I'm rooting for something bootleg or sheared or trailing thru mid month. Climo highways with big synoptic storms are really hard to skip lanes from the MA southward. Blocks alone can't stop an ocean air vacuum coastal from being to warm here. The surface is hard enough with early season climo. Mid levels with a storm off the coast are even harder. SNE or even Philly may be looking for a big wound up event. I'm not. We never get big snowstorms in early Dec even when the h5 maps say we might

We been on this ride a long time friend. I used to get head over heels with the prospect of a long range west based block and what it can mean. Time and time again I was taught to be patient. Lol I do think this one will verify and that's prob all that matters in model land. "Build it and they will come" is a good analogy where my head is at. I'm down at smith mtn for a week. Hoping trackable threats are inside of d15 by the time I get back

A very reliable rule of thumb in the MA with a real/stable block is we get our chance later. Usually after peak neg NAO anomaly on the relax. Makes logical sense as we often need a series of carves to finally start getting sprawling cold. Super slim odds in Dec with any hit and run cold. If the -nao starts pinning banana like highs in good places it's off to the races for tracking. It's going to take some time before things are favorable here imho

If the EPS version is correct, this is not a hit and run imo. That is basically the entire northern hemisphere linking up with a prime anomalous and displaced winter pattern. That is winter from San Fran to Raleigh to London to Eastern Siberia lol. Something strong will have to break it down. ,

I must be really awake or something. 3 legit wx posts in a row... my intuition must be kickin'... In a vacuum of reasons why, it's still pretty obvious we are losing on the margins and borderline setups due to warmer winter temps. It's been raining when it shouldn't. Don't want to dig any deeper than that. The NAO can really help with marginal events just because of common mid level flow under a block. We get the cold dry feed pushing back against storms instead of running away. Still doesn't win the game exclusively because sometimes the "cold dry feed" is straight out of unusually warm New England. Blocks aren't everyone's friend either. The further north you get the less you want to see a big red monstrosity over Greenland or Baffin. You also don't want to see nasty 50/50s spinning in place. But that's there and this is here. If we start seeing banana like highs sliding across to our north in mid Dec, it's prob only a matter of time b4 the shovels get dusted off and oiled up. ETA: @CAPE see if u can find the 2012ish article from Wes. He used my AO data. Would save me a lot of time. It's been a while + several PCs since I did the research.

Whomever cracks the kinda sorta decadal cycle of the AO will become a legend. It's there somehow/somewhere. I tried to find any kind of predictor other than approx 10 years with twists and turns. Lol. You can see the groups in the 60s/70s/80s easy. Things got a little weird in the 90s thru current but it's still there and this year would be "on time" for the switch. But it's always a rear view thing.

A Dec AO or NAO in the -1.3 or lower range indicates both a -ao/nao in Jan 75-80% of the time and about 60% in Feb. One of the best long term winter pattern predictors I've found. Works in reverse quite well too. Do I need to post those stats or do the memories of the multi-year soul killing blue ball in the arctic cover that? Lol An important piece for increased winter wx odds seems to be lining up and holding in time now. If it sets up stable, this general type high latitude blocking pattern lasts on avg 30-45 days. Doesn't mean deep winter as our area always requires more than one feature lining up but the possibility of our biggest thorn not drawing blood keeps looking better I posted a bunch of data on this stuff back in 2012 or so. Might be a good time for me to dig it up. Yep, it's been that long since we've had a run of classic blocky winters. ETA: AO is the bus driver as the domain space is far larger than the NAO and affects wx flow differently. An anomalous -NAO is often an extension of a deep -AO. Either way, a deep blocking episode in Dec that makes the east cold rarely indicates a warm boring winter going forward.