Bob Chill

Shouldn't last. It's too far away from Nina climo. My guess is it's some sort of byproduct or aftereffect of the big blocking event. Atmosphere is in flux. Aleutian low won't park and the pac won't stay configured like that.

I haven't looked close like u guys but I 100% agree that the oddball unmistakable Nino look is unlikely to last much at all for a lot of reasons. My guess is the big -4std AO is bullying things as heights shift around. Pretty anomalous stuff in the artic during a time of year where it can really assert itself both up and down stream.

He's expansivly focused on proving he's right about anything after the SCI was quickly proven to be a dried up nothingburger. He lost me back in 2015 after claiming victory for SCI predicting the cold in the US when the very important teleconnection that the SCI predicts was polar opposite. Lol. Ego much? Think we dum much? Lol And saying Siberia is north America's primary cold factory. Lol. What a fruitcake he's becoming

Best small event in 20 yard years. Remember it like yesterday. I seared some fillet mignons on my grill in 12 degree temps and 35mph winds while getting blasted by blowing snow. If that ain't livin' I don't know what is

Hey! Still on amwx server! Lol

Feb 2015 is the benchmark for my yard. Got over 2" in like 30 mins and stuck around for days.

I keep getting more modest and humble as I get older. I'm totally fine not knowing the answer and getting shit wrong. With anything really. I'm usually first to say I got it wrong when I make any long range call (I don't much anymore). I also know I'm far far dumber about wx than the most powerful wx supercomputers in the world. When they are at odds, I stand in the back of the room, get a drink (root beer), and watch the show

After everything all of us have learned collectively in Weenie U, writing something off in a loaded pattern a week out is prob more emotional than logical. Big dog bubble bust effect. Lol. I'll bet a lot of the storm cancelers were the same honking the big dog alarm haha

@Maestrobjwa I uploaded this after the Jan blizzard. Fantastic full continent satellite loop. Watch it like 5 times and keep staring at the orignin and track of the NS wave that kicked it all off. THAT is the kind of track we need (in general) to feel safe and it certainly can't include a big deep upper level low west of the MS river. There is a lot to resolve with the NS wave that may or may not snow in the east. Unlike Jan 2016, this one is very volatile. The atmosphere is going through a major shift at the same time the storm is pulling together. Jan 2016 had a locked pattern in advance. Patience always Eta: the depth of the trough and approach angle with NS waves cause massive differences in our potential outcome. To shallow of a dig and any good snow requires upper level support because there is no room for a swath of WAA in front. I hate this type of event. We're in the game for "tricky hard snow but could be big or bust" but "easy snow" is off the table. With NS waves, give me easy front end snow every time so I don't cry when the tough stuff skips... as usual... It's not looking great so far but next week could still bring easy snow without a bomb.

The biggest recurring hot spot is any time a general pattern supports an east coast storm a week+ out, models will always spit out big solutions. Which are random just like the terrible solutions but get married instantly and become a benchmark. This is losing the game before ever rolling the dice or drawing your first card. Lol Eta: big storms are rarely long tracked in the east no matter what. Southern stream waves are the only thing that move slow enough and predictable enough to model well 120hrs+ out. Southern stream doesn't buckle and rip like the northern stream in winter. NS is a much stronger and faster force on winter wx and it's crazy volatile at mid/long leads. Many "sub classic but still big storms" surprise people regularly even at d4 or 3. Go back and read the Dec 2009 storm thread. Wild crazy tracking until the bitter end and that was a classic Nino giant block southern stream influenced wave. Lol

This is why I changed my rules. Not because of others complaining though. Because it's a waste of my time and emotional energy getting involved in anything beyond d5 unless it's already stable across guidance. We don't have the technology capable of meeting expectations here. I figured a wound up storm would be problems all month even with blocking. NS wind-ups fight like the hulk to push north into anything. It's always like that and Dec climo lanes are not friendly here basically ever lol .

From what I see, the gefs lost a # of deep western solutions run over run. Could be follow the leader bug good news either way. However, there was also a less than small shift north with the heaviest precip. My guess is there are prob more misses with late cyclogenesis

The ukie only gets attention when it shows snow in the face of everything else. Otherwise, imho, it usually adds confusion and uncertainty instead clearing up gfs/euro divergence. I keep it simple in mid to short range. Euro/gfs blend, hedging towards which one makes the most sense (subjective). Nams are good t add 48 hours in for clearing up qpf/temp details when things are dicey. There are magnitudes more old threads with post storm discussion that says euro/gfs blend was good from 4 days out or whatever. Rarely if ever does the cmc or ukie end up being the best mid range solution. ICON should be ctrl-alt-deleted

D8+ analogs pretty much loaded top to bottom with winter wx (all ptypes) in DC. I didn't check the 1950s ones Of course nearly all these analogs look far better to our north but this looks as good as we can ask with a NS shortwave in a Nina producing winter wx.

Amazing dig for Dec

I'd take another chance on that setup. It was literally just a few hours off enough phasing to drag the tail across. There are some big flags regardless. Thankfully the crazy pv drops were just crazy model stuff. Looks more "realistic" now but it's still entirely a northern stream ULL with limited potential for a lead shot of WAA as it stands now. It's also a time of year where watching it all shift north D5 inwards is likely. Then there's temps... good snow requires the very first legitimate snow airmass of the year to be in place and ready to rock. This is a lot to come together. I read all posts from northern posters with a grain of salt and a pile of reality. They are chomping at the bit. They love what they see and I would too if I was forced to live in the NE. Here? I won't get involved with a quick capture or perfect ULL pass until inside of 5 days and even then it's a eternity.

I was referencing storms 2&3 after white christmas

That level of detail is too much for using analogs like this. Lots of little things can make or break things in yards and no 2 storms are alike. Having a big east coast storm signal like this at D11+ range is all that matters. Risk of fail only applies once a big storm forms. That's a long ways away

Check out some of these analogs... top tier stuff. Late Dec 2000 had an historic NE Miller B. We were subject to typical bad luck/timing/poor spacing when it mattered. It was a bomb tho.

Hmmm... current plan (subject to change every 3-6 hours) is spending the 22nd - 26th at smith mtn and coming back here for the next one (with a load of snow on my equipment trailer). Climo before 2023 me thinks

It's very common to get all ridgy and bluebirdy out west after a long storm cycle in Nina December's. It can be very persistent before breaking down. I hated this cycle when I lived out west. We don't remember this much here though because a Dec +pna pattern in the MA during a Nina is cold front or rain, 3 cold days, repeat. An anomalous blocking period changes this. How much for the better is hard to say with confidence. Previous Dec threats with similar longwave patterns still didn't do well. We almost never get big snow in Dec for real reasons and not bad luck. You almost have to root against a big wind up no matter the track. Imo only, the "easiest" way to get a foot of snow out of the upcoming pattern is back to back weakish waves running more horizontal than vertical. The proverbial train tracks and hose. When things wind up it becomes way too easy to inhale the wrong kind of air anywhere east of the blue ridge lol

I found some old but very relevant attachments related to AO behavior. First off, assuming Dec AO comes in around -2, this Dec joins some good company. Gotta remove the Nino's so not elite but good company in general Using the AO and enso as simple filters, it brings 2010-11, 2005-06. 2000-01, 1995-96, and 1985-86 to the front of the line. Here's how the daily AO graph played out for 2 of those years. If I can find the time I'll graph 05-06, 95-96 and 85-86 soon. They will be similar tho. I remember looking at this before Unsurprisingly, the 2 biggest storms those years came with a deeply negative AO moving towards neutral leading in. That seems to be a common theme with decent storms in non-nino years. Nino years don't care as much. Big block and southern stream is enough by itself. Lol

I missed adding 2015 in that edit. Lol. 09-10 is the big dog grandaddy but there was a ton of dead space that winter even with obscene totals. Dec storm was almost written off 72 hours out. It wasn't a long track like the first Feb storm or Jan 2016. Jan was rather frustrating until the lucky last minute north trend. From a tracking perspective I don't remember 09-10 being busy like the 13-15 stretch. Or Feb/Mar 2003. Those periods are what enthusiasts really thrive in. Multiple threat threads for events with different synoptics is what I define as a heater. It's subjective of course. 13-15 stretch taught us a lot. We can snow from nearly any angle or setup that has a chance.... as long as a difficult to move cold dome is centered close by even if it's running away. Nobody can ever convince me that precip comes before cold because in my yard it certainly does not and when it accidentally does, it's gone before my coffee Eta: once the artic front clears our area, it keeps the door open for some chances. Not none or one and done imo. If hl blocking follows a typical progression with a relax and reload it could crack the door open on a heater period with different setups or even a hostile west track dump. This is what I'm really focused on and why I have little to say leading into the first real cold.

We've had plenty of multi-event heaters over the years. Most decent winters require at least one. We're streaky AF here lol Eta: all time heater award has to go to Feb 14th thru March 31st. What a blast that was

Agree. To me, for our purposes, next week's weird event IS the pattern change we've been waiting for. I guessed mid month back in Nov and that was too soon. I like everything I see coming up. I'd be happy with any frozen events this month. Especially ones that end below freezing. Lol.