Bob Chill

In some parts of the world, a Guinea pig peeing on you is believed to bring good fortune. You should encourage it daily. Make it snow

It hasn't but it's changed still. We used to use early Dec as a benchmark for understanding how winter is going to break. That been fooling people lately (myself included). Last 7 years or so we usually don't know what we're dealing with until after Dec. We try to know but it hasn't worked like it has in the past based on my observations. We've been getting curveballed A LOT. Even during times that should be more guessable during early winter. Interesting to ponder but might just be chaos.

100%. This is a crappy mock up but gets the point across. Get the Aleutian low (of any magnitude) to undercut the epo and it opens the door for a Seattle to St Louis track on the NS and a classic split coming into the SW. Either stream can produce individually (NS always dicey lol) but the phase potential lights up. Add in a steep epo and the polar stream joins the party. Get the NS and polar stream to link a few times and the conus will get real cold too as the bowl carves and vodka spills in. I can see it plain as fookin' day lol.... but is this the real life, or is it just fantasy?

One thing I keep repeatedly thinking about is how March has become a "better" winter month since 2014. On the flip, Dec has become more of a fall month in these parts. Makes sense with ocean temps among other things. What's interesting is the atmosphere still seems to want to run a "normal" winter cycle just later. 09/10 started in early Dec and pretty much quit after Feb 10th. We got missed by a biggie after but for the most part winter ended then. Especially with temps. Gotta wonder if a more typical and classic Nino patten sets up in mid Jan and runs thru mid March (or later) instead of shutting off in Feb like previous similar Ninos. Seasonal and monthly guidance had that idea going much of the fall. Maybe we should all stop caring so much about Dec. Maybe the signals for a good winter come later than usual. Just tossing out ideas. Plenty of time to observe over the coming years.

NGL.... it's very thought provoking. Every part of my wx intuition says this blocking episode will run until end of Feb. Maybe longer. For those that haven't been around for a long duration block, it doesn't mean we snow a lot. It can still do anything.... rain, dry, blizzard... takes more than a block to snow here. The big positive is *IF* something sets up right, the chance of maximizing is much higher. Blocks wax, wane, and wiggle too. They don't just park. But just having a blocked longwave pattern that fights back against latitude gain can open the door to many more possibilities than quick/progressive flow.

When the NH sets up like this, I can't think of a time in the past where it didn't last. Especially during a Nino. Get that burly west based block to link up to the -AO dome of HP and it takes A LOT to break it down. I know u know this. Just adding color commentary with a pretty color chart. Sprawling HP from the Aleutians to the pole to Baffin Bay. Yea, that will work good.... real good... lol ETA: I can envision the -epo ridge extending north and the Aleutian low returning underneath. Big game hunting if that happens.

Track is too close. Look at 850 wind barbs. Southerly flow all the way to VT. Real cold front is north of that where northerlies are smashing into southerlies. Surface flow is due east off the ocean. There is no mechanism to stop warm Atlantic air from wrapping in. Not saying gfs is right at all. Just pointing out the obvious problem for the CP and fall line zone. How does this get fixed? We need more compression in front. Big amp in Midwest is going to draw in warmth no matter the track. We need a press. Confluence, surface high feed, something... This is where we gotta watch who's rooting for what. North of here wants an amp all day so their "good runs" will be kinda scary here. Our good runs will continue the NE panic. We can all get some snow but I don't like the setup at all for that outcome. Too much thermal risk and it's not even cold leading in. Seasonal at best.

I'm too lazy to dig in my old hard drive but i did quite a bit of AO data crunching for DJFM some years back. Results spoke for themselves with the AO. NAO is much more volatile but there is almost always a connection because of shared troposphere lol. Get the AO to tank to -2 or more during met winter, about 80% of the time it will mark the start of a 45 to as much as 60 period where it remains negative on the balance. Works both ways very well but this is the only fun way hahahaha. Our snow in the MA is most closely correlated to the AO. We do horrible unless it's negative. The more the better. NAO correlates more to storm size for obvious reasons but not storms in general. That said, a relaxing stout neg nao has been a precursor for some of our biggest and best storms when combined with a stout -AO. My guess is *IF* that big west based block forms along with a -AO (giant nao block will near guaranty a -AO), it's going to be around with varying strengths into mid Feb. Maybe longer. There's solid data to back that up. Wont know in advance because we can get seriously sucker punched with a tanking AO or NAO that quickly reverses in like a week or so. By mid Jan we'll know and if this is one of those stable blocks. I feel pretty strongly that it will be but that's just a gut guess. Even if the -NAO doesn't have big legs, it sure looks stout and if it relaxes as quick as it comes, that window could be a big storm window even in a pattern that is heading backwards. All in all, I've continue to like everything I see down the line. Just need to keep away from here and not let my mind get clouded by emotional disregulation and making big things out of blips and burps. Lol. I appreciate all your posts this year. Helps me rip and read quick and get out lol

Snow or not, guidance has destroyed the 7th window from 10+ days out so far. The shortwave has been focused on run after run for days on the ens. Maybe it ends up too warm, maybe it does nothing, or maybe it's our first decent snowfall of some kind. Not sure there yet as the ingredients are too sketchy to feel confident in any direction. But imho, heck of a lock-in for a modest shortwave. Gnarly ones are different (2010, 2016 etc). I don't understand the intense criticism of ens guidance. From the outside looking in, it really looks to me like some (too many) people equate "pattern change" with a snowfall or deep freeze date lol. That's insanity lol. Even when the pattern is solid it's still a hunt and peck to find something that can produce. It took an extra week (as usual) to get into something that "might snow". That's a mega fail? Lol. Long timers should know better and not act like rookies. I've only talked about the window around the 7th because I always mentally add a week to whatever long range is showing during a shift. I had some hopes of snow this week but I figured things would wallow around and they did. The best advice I can give a long range pattern flip tracker is always add a week once all d10-15 ens agree on the change. Your accuracy will improve greatly with long range guessing by doing this. Sometimes flips come flying in quick or on time and it's fine to follow that. Set strong expectations? Recipe for hurt feelings and awful posting. That's a fact lol. I have a lot of evidence in this thread to back it up. Lolx2

8&11 day GEFS analogs look pretty good for winter wx. No big storms in the top part of list but majority have winter wx events within a few days either way. Nearly all have precipitation so rain is certainly part of the analog set. Top ones look pretty good though and worth mentioning as we're now at the d8-11 lead time for what still appears to be whiter pastures. These are a day old. I'll check l8r and if see if anything changes. I dont expect much new information as guidance has been semi locked in in the extended. Eta: Jan 1964 analog was actually a decent storm. Bwi looks like they got 6". Can't tell at IAD but it snowed. DC snowed too but more mixing there.

To be fair to the poor, underappreciated, and often bashed GFS... lol... Upper level lows are dynamic balls of energy. The wobble and evolve in unpredictable ways. Precipitation is dynamically driven in a tight area unlike upglide/overrunning. Models never get that stuff right. Especially in a mixed event scenario. Even 24 hours out (or real time) there is a level of unpredictably that makes it fun to experience (during legit snow events).

The macro pattern problem has been basically all of NA north of 40N has been roasting. Canada has been wall to wall. Sure, continental air can be cold this time of year but it's been off and on humid and pacificy for weeks. Flow has been slow underneath that too so air has been stale far more often than fresh for weeks. The only pattern change that matters to me is getting rid if that. It's Dec, Atlantic is warm, and snowcover to our north and west has been abysmal. We'll never snow like this even if the mids are ok sometimes. Winter flow (when it's cold enough to snow) generally keeps reinforcing continental air in waves. Carving down the latitudes. We've had none of that. Nobody has really. Shouldnt be too suprising that no track can get it right to snow regardless. Front side of the "potential" nao block should start the carve process in the east. Cold should come in waves with increasing depth in the CONUS. That (to me) is the most important pattern change. Stale pacific air is useless to snow weenies. Kick that out and see what happens.

My only problem with deep creek is traffic/people. It's personal though. I'm beyond burned out on rat race roads. However, if investment roi, 4 seasons, ease of access, and wide open recreational activities at your door is important, there are few better choices anywhere in the MA than Deep Creek. If it was my choice, WV all the way. I like driving country roads and don't care about distances so that is a serious consideration. With our property near sm mtn we are pretty out there. 10 miles for gas/diesel, 20mi for quick food, and 40-45mi for majors like wally/lowes. Running out "quick" isn't a thing and it won't be in WV either. But man, the peace and quiet and unspoiled beauty is so worth it if that's your jam. Only views from our property are forest and mountains. No houses or buildings. But there are tradeoffs with everything and no right or wrong. Just what makes the most sense based on your goals. My unspoiled view will cost me lots of diesel over the years lolol

One of the most unreliable talking points in any winter imo. They rarely happen and when they do, the results often end up as "unexpected" (translate: no help or makes it worse lol). Let's focus on the troposphere. At least that connects to the ground fairly often. Lol. NAO block (of varying degrees) seems pretty likely coming up. Get that thing to tank then wait for the relax. Imho- KU hunting can't really start until that happens first. Very optimistic about winter wx chances increasing by the end of next week tho. Not really paying much attention to stuff b4 that. I'll flip the switch if something pops in the med range

12z gefs really starting to agree on the shortwave. Nice height pattern leading in. Might be a blip. Previous gefs runs were much more diffuse with the sw tracking thru the rockies. 12z focused in. EPS has been pretty focused. I continue to really like the general setup.

One of the problems with the year following a big year is expectations get totally out of whack lol. Boxing day 2010 was an incredibly bitter pill to swallow after the previous winter. I refused to believe it wouldn't work out cuz we were a blizzard town back then hahaha

13-14 was kinda wall to wall. Early Dec produced (very good N-W). Late Dec got super warm and freaked everyone out. By first week of Jan it completely flipped and we got a moderate cold storm (Jan 7th maybe?). History after that... I'll never forget the all snow/cold west track... super anomalous. 2015 was an epic disaster until Vday. Pure insanity in SNE. Was hard to watch lol

This pretty far out in time for an ens mean to show an obvious gulf moisture feed incoming. Might be be high qpf members skewing (didn't dig deep) but it's real hard not to ponder the 7th and beyond....

GEFS has a southern/tn valley wave between this panel and the bowling alley clearing out but this setup looks pretty good. You can track the wave from the west coast on the ens. Who knows how things break but flow is kinda slow. Waves are separated. Long range models may key in on a stronger wave pretty far out in time. Pretty sweet MSLP panel too. This is a good look for us

Imo only, it's the only look that gives us multiple potential outcomes to each wave. I'm prob on an island with this but really don't like deep bowls and vertical storm tracks even with a block. When they work they are lottery tickets but they sure can find a way to not work for a 3rd of our sub usually. Different problems in different directions but similar outcomes... deflated weenies... The lateral track is the shizzle to me. We can still easily get a foot. Especially with a decent upper level low. Our latitude sits in a sweet spot for the lateral track and we could sure use a level strip of pinks and purples from Lake Anna to York PA. Collective high 5s barely exist on the internet anymore.... snow is the great equalizer here. Let's do this! On a side note, I wasn't here for 95-96 but that late Dec/early Jan analog keeps popping up. Broad modestly neg pna is prob the reason but man, that's not a bad thing to have in common me thinks. Not saying Jan 96 (hands off keyboard Ji) redux. Just that everything points towards active weather with seasonable cold around and lateral storm track. I'll be a little surprised if we're not tracking something specific by mid next week.

Cycles in cycles. I moved to MD in fall 1972 from Central CT. I was really young but remember how disgusting that winter was. I was literally angry at my parents for moving away from snow. If they were still alive they would immediately confirm lollol. Winters continued to basically suck (small snow and ice storms and big cold dry spells) until the life changing Feb 1979 storm. But even then we had some real dung piles in the early 80s lol. Mid 80s, however, made everyone believe we're a big snow town again. Then vet day 1988 hit and everything started suckin again afterwards. lolol. Many weenies (including myself) thought the Vet day storm was a harbinger of a big winter. It was a big winter if you like little snow and mild temps lol. Cycles in Cycles are everywhere across the globe. Lake meade is a good example of a high profile one. The "New normal" wx pattern was going to drain the lake dry and there was no hope in sight. Oops. Lake may go dead pool but my hunch is not until it continues to fill for a other year or more. Just a total guess tho. . I'm not saying there aren't climate problems or shifts causing unusual droughts and floods. I'm just saying that taking the last "x" number of years and rolling the anomalous weather patterns forward is always wrong eventually. Not sometimes. Always. One thing I've been noticing is that prolonged drought areas in the US seem to get resolved quickly and violently when their number is called. Same can probably be said about our snowfall swings. Imho- We'll continue to get big winters sandwiched between tons of crappy ones just like it's always been. The swings are bigger and more intense in recent years. Opinions on why this is happening needs to be in a different thread tho lol. If a big winter by climo standards isn't enuff to fill a weenie, the weenie needs to find other stuff to do. Misery 24/7 ain't living haha

I've been disconnecting from all kinds of weird attachments or "hobbies lol" over the last 18 months. Barely touch my big PC, spend as little time online as possible, work hard as heck outside, and just live in the moment most days. I cannot describe in words how much this has helped me achieve new goals and have no fear starting anything new. My anxiety about anything is minimal nowadays but man it took a lot of work to break free. My LR analysis is just a super quick scan of ens h5 means and how they are trending. That's it. If a storm is gonna hit... it's gonna hit.... and we certaintly wont know it 7+ days out lol. Worrying about things i can't control was the root of my discomfort in life. Eliminating that is a choice. Not easy to execute and not quick to do buy worth its weight in platinum for me. It's making this hobby fun again for the first time in a long time lol. I'm settled in MD thru Jan 7th at least. Intuition says modest snowstorm on the way. Gotta see what happens with the big Midwest wobbler next week. Maybe it parks itself or builds lower heights in the 50/50 zone...

Yep. If you go back and look at the majority of our colder/all snow events (not just big ones), there is typically some form of confluence (or compressed heights running laterally) overhead or to the north. The compression in the upper levels causes of a number of positive ingredients for MA snowfall. Most importantly, it fights off southerly flow in the mids. Confluence causes surface hp to form below it due to air smashing into itself lol. Surface HP keeps mid level flow more northerly. So you have the beautiful combo of warm/moist air streaming in from the SW in the upper levels and colder northerly flow in the mids/surface leading in. Upper level stream hits a wall and turns right due to confluence. That creates extra lift and precipitation. It also often creates a sharp cutoff somewhere. Usually around or just north of Philly. These setups are our favorites but not everyone's lol. ETA: wanted to clarify cutoff and storm track disco. Any big storm can punch a hole in just about any block depending on details. Any big storm can draw in enough Atlantic air to cause precipitation problems. But more typical stuff can get bullied pretty easily. If active flow undercuts the potential dome of upper level HP in Canada like guidance is suggesting.... we can snow a lot of different ways and not rely on needles and threads and stuff. Big storms have always and will always be nailbiters. We aren't new England no matter how big the block is unless 2010 walks in the door again lol.

Classic TN valley overrunner setup lol. Textbook

When all guidance starts showing compressed heights in the east oriented WSW-ENE.... I get stoked... I'm pretty stoked These are the upper level height patterns that can produce snow with just about any wave. Not just a perfectly timed one or second in line or whatever. I know u know this up and down. Just adding to the disco