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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    last night was a sig shift north for run over run. Snow did make it to i70 but was light. Sig increase in the SoVa jackpot.
  2. Bob Chill
    Euro was a notable shift north between 12z yesterday and 0z last night. We'll know in about 45 minutes which direction 12z goes...
  3. Bob Chill
    We're getting pretty good consolidation now with the track/evolution and we're still right on the edge of the good stuff. Like PSU said, that's not a bad place to be. If this was 72 hours out I would be pretty pessimistic. We literally only need a 90 mile shift now and we're both in warning level snowfall. IMHO- it does seem like a miss or scrape south is the most likely outcome but can't throw in the towel yet at all. We're 48-72 hours before knowing if we're in or out of the heavy stuff.
  4. Bob Chill
    For now, it's undeniable how much support there is for a NC/SVa crushing. Things can certainly break right as there's plenty of time but looking back over the last 3-4 days, it's apparent that guidance is locking in on a pretty brutal miss in our area. I'll remain hopeful because there's still hope but I don't see a compelling argument that the meat of the qpf shield is destined to hit us flush.
  5. Bob Chill
    Look at the members though. Down to 3 that put our area in the QPF max. Vast majority would be deep disappointments
  6. Bob Chill
    GEFS is a slight shift north with the heaviest precip in VA but mostly just noise for our area. Excruciating miss to the south favored.
  7. Bob Chill
    Here's a visual for the shortwave that can make or break our chances. Here's where it is right now: CMC fully phases the shortwave well to our SW in TN/AR. GFS/FV3/Euro are all close but haven't shown anything like the CMC solution. This isn't the only piece to watch but if you want the CMC version to come true, it's the part to watch.
  8. Bob Chill
    And to think... there was a heated drought debate last winter.
  9. Bob Chill
    Tricky contest this year. Easy to go late because well...it's been warm as F and warm enso is generally a mild fall pattern. Add is the ridiculous amount of saturated ground and everything points to a late start to cold season. However, a very cold Canada pattern looks to potentially lock in this month so intrusions could be pretty cold. Northern plains weenies may have a good October. Lol
  10. Bob Chill
    DCA: 11/30 BWI: 11/11 IAD: 11/2 RIC: 11/14 TB: 3.60"
  11. Bob Chill
    I feel sorry for the dought
  12. Bob Chill
    Absolutely. What makes this July stand out it was it was really wet and still came in about +1-2 around the airports. If it was dry then it could have been much worse. Easy top 5 imho. The 6-7 days of the month averaged well below normal. Mostly because of the summer coastal. EJ is disappointed because of wasted potential.
  13. Bob Chill
    Nice stats Rodney! The precip in July is probably the only reason we didn't end up in the top 10 for heat. August is looking unimpressive so far in the heat dept. Would be nice to have a BN month.
  14. Bob Chill
    One thing is for sure, that 7 day period in Feb 10 may not be topped for 100 years or ever. If the poll was "greatest 7 days of winter" there only needs to be 1 choice.
  15. Bob Chill
    One of my main reasons for picking 1/16 is because I have a much deeper knowledge of east coast snowstorms. The hunt was as rewarding as the prey. PD1 was the "first hit" in the lifetime addiction so it will forever be a defining event in my life. But tracking a beautiful storm for 8 days and knocking down 30" in my yard may never be topped before I'm dead. Or in 2 weeks...
  16. Bob Chill
    Me too. We've only had 2 bad out of the last 6. 10-11 wasn't above normal snow wise but it wasn't in the bad winter class either. We've had 4 giant and 2 really big storms in the last 6 years. Plus we're on a 3 year heater and froze the bay and rivers the previous 2 years. We probably have better than normal odds at adding another big or giant storm this year. Best of all...since this nino is so strong so late in the year we could have a sweet weak Nina next year to keep the run going...lol
  17. Bob Chill
    That h5 loop is a 10 second clinic of exactly what to look for if you like big snowstorms. I love the trajectory overhead and off the coast. So sweet for our latitude
  18. Bob Chill
    I changed my vote. 2016 was an incredible tracking and real time experience. The insane model runs and insane totals around the areas west of the cities led to an unimaginable period for winter wx enthusiasts. Biggest storm ever in my yard seals the deal.
  19. Bob Chill
    Awesome loop Ian. This thread is great. Can you animate an h5 re-analysis?
  20. Bob Chill
    I posted this in another thread. I uploaded the loop to YouTube. https://youtu.be/m5SRBhKirrQ
  21. Bob Chill
    I uploaded this loop to Youtube. It's so cool to see how the leading shortwave that dropped an inch and destroyed a commute set the stage for a cold storm. Just a beautiful loop. One for the books. https://youtu.be/m5SRBhKirrQ
  22. Bob Chill
    Heh, yep it was Stern. Young memories mix things up. Grease dropped a few bombs on air that were far worse.
  23. Bob Chill
    Anyone remember when Greaseman called Air Florida on air shortly after the accident? Wow. I was 13 at the time so unfortunately I thought it was funny...now...notsomuch.
  24. Bob Chill
    Yes, more likely but I'm sure there's been some ice during warm enso. Probably not many with mod+ or strong. Someone prob has good stats on that and can chime in. I'm surprised we didn't get more ice the last 2 years. Especially 13-14. It was a prime ice pattern but we ended up snowing instead. Weird (and very lucky) year.
  25. Bob Chill
    Big ice is probably very unlikely this winter either way. I'm not too picky though. High impact weather is the core of my interest in this hobby. Certainly not in it for "pretty weather" (unless we're talking July 4th 2014 kind of stuff). I enjoy it of course but not something that inspires me to discuss it. lol.
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