Bob Chill

Don't worry. You'll be plastered in the .01 contour in 6 hours

3k has the IR deform band in place. Radar will catch up at 0z

0z will change that. .01" INCOMING!

EPS E38 is the best of the bunch so we'll hug this one for now

I'm kinda doubting step backs. Blocking hp is weaker at just hr24. A difference at that short of a lead is due to actual surface conditions at init. I'm pretty sure I'm out here no matter but a good friend of mine lives in Ches Beach. He could get an event out of this.

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

Icon trending the wrong way. We have the JMA, SREFs, and like 2 out of 70 ensemble members to hang our hat on inside of 96 hours. Jan 2000 redux it is.

It's a backyard sport. Always has been and always will be. I actually hate it when my neighbor gets snow. I'll sneak over there in the middle of the night and shovel it all into my yard.

ICON throws another wrinkle... lol. Blows up the trailing low with a nasty inv trof over SeVA on the way out to sea. Move that over MoCo and it would work for me.

Yea, looks like we both score .5 qpf and with 25:1 ratios it's a mini hecs.

It's the best run we've seen in 24 hours. Don't care which model it is. It's worth a hug until something better comes along.

NAM gets .5 qpf into the MD portion of the Delmarva.

18z is unanimous for the first time. Completely lasered in on the op. I don't think the ens have been bad with this event. They have favored the nc/sva hit for many runs. The spread kept us hooked because there were enough good ones in the mix but overall the southern solution was always the majority. I do think it's still possible for a shift north but the idea is fading every six hours now unfortunately.

CMC is officially on a little lump of sand with a single palm tree on it in the middle of a vast ocean. I doubt there will be much spread at 0z but this is the perfect time range to start the north tick if it's going to happen. My bar is currently set at zero so it can only go up from here.

If we take out our yard bias perspective, this storm has been very well modelled from pretty far out in time. Vast majority of op and ens runs have shown western NC nd SWVA as ground zero. That hasn't changed for days and now the focus is lasering in on the same spot that was initially targeted.

Yea, upper levels aren't moving much anymore. Nothing new showed up at all today except the wacky CMC phase job. No model is even close to that type of solution. That's probably the only thing that can save us. Confluence could relax enough for more than a dusting but a good event requires a phase from what I'm seeing. No other path unless models are totally blowing the northern stream/confluence. Seeing a tight cluster now isn't very inspiring...

Except for the souther and easter part, the gfs is identical to 12z.

It's not compared to 00z yesterday. Were just back in the same place It's like a wizards game. Start off ok and get false hope, then go down by 20 in the 2nd, mount a comeback in the second half, but fall short then give up and go down in flames to close the game.

Icon kicking off the north trend at 18z. You could see heights out in front being less of a hammer pretty early on. Still an epic tease but less of an epic disaster than 12z.

EPS strongly supports the op (shocker). It still has enough coastal runner solutions to stay interested but there's nothing worth discussing in detail.

NWP can nail stable high pressure a week out no problem so it's not like models "can't" get it right at long leads because they can. Synoptic events are exponentially more complicated. This particular one is a bit easier because it's mostly a southern stream storm. Think back to 13-14 or 14-15... lol. We had events that weren't even on the radar until 5 days out and practically every single one shifted around quite a bit even inside of 48 hours. Progressive northern stream events are the absolute hardest for models to figure out. Just being close at 24-48 hours is enough to keep you very interested. This particular event has a northern stream component that could change things. The CMC showed that today. That shortwave is still in the Gulf of Alaska. Is the CMC's solution possible? Absolutely. Not much support for that solution with the 12z suite but who knows.

Track enough storms and you'll understand. I've been at this since 06 back when it was Easternwx and other regulars have been doing it for far longer. NWP is incredibly good and advanced but synoptic events beyond 72 hours are rarely "locked in". Our area is still well within a range of error that could put us in the game. Does it look promising at this exact moment? No, it looks like areas to the south will enjoy this and we'll be on the outside looking in. But we're only talking a 75-150 mile shift. That's pretty small for the amount of lead time we still have.

We're still 4-5 days away and there are enough pieces unresolved to leave us hanging. Obviously a southern hit is favored but there is no way you can say with 100% certainty that we are out yet.

Agree 100%. I didn't see a single trend at any level that was in our favor.

Yea, the trailing shortwave at hr102 isn't as good as last night and certainly not as good as the CMC.