Bob Chill
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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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One more tidbit from your earlier question... the way you and me get 6-8 or even more is when the trailing upper level energy moves through. The exact location and jackpots from that piece are really hard to nail down until it's happening. That part could feature high ratio/fluffy dendrites. If things line up there will be embedded bands within the shield. Get under 1 or 2 of those bands and you can get a nice thump of quick accumulations. Just pray or sacrifice chickens and hope it happens over your yard.
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Colder in the column than or typical event but not that cold so agree. If it's easy to shovel and crappy for snowballs then it qualifies
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What? They've been posting all day
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Unless things fall apart we should be a lock for 4"+. Somewhere around 6" high end. Just best guess based on all data. Over 6" is possible but everything needs to breal right and it usually doesnt
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First legit radar returns in wv panhandle. Expecting some excited obs from our western crew within the hour
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Irrelevant mean qpf panel but eps strongly supports the op increase in qpf.
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Lightest snow possible commencing in Rockville.
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It's tricky. I'm a little skeptical of the euro qpf output for the trailing energy as it is. A range if 4-10" is already a significant event for what transpires in the upper levels. This isn't a classic miller A at all.
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For the radar geeks... 1.5 degree tilt shows how shallow the dry air is. Virga doesn't stand a chance
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Nice! 1-2 hours before the rockville deathband (of flurries) sets up
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I wont be confident in tne location and amount of qpf with the trailing energy/enhancement until it's happening. That stuff is notorious for moving around or going up or down with qpf. Solid event before that's even an issue tho
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For the qpf queens
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This storm is a great reminder that it's very hard for models to nail intricate energy transfers. The waa piece is easy. The upper level and surface low progression is complicated. Sometimes it cuts the other way where models at short range lose (or move) the extra lift/precip idea. Appears this one is maxing out. Good luck indeed
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Kuchera ftmfw
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Look f'n solid for our yards. Holds firm with ull trailing energy. Just not as juicy as the nam. Maybe 18z... lol
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Parrs Ridge might be next before leesburg. Elevation makes a big difference when the only dry part of the column is 925mb and below
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Damn dude. Earlier than i thought. I'm prob 3 hours away from onset. Keep up with obs. You're in the hot seat now
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If you dont want to pay then the cod site is by far the best free radar. Has some really neat features built in like correlation coefficient, tilts, vils, cloud tops, etc
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You should be good by 5:30. Could easily be delays but my guess is runways will easily be plowed and open by late afternoom. Deicing and arrival delays could mess with the schedule but outright cancellations are unlikely...unless a deathband sets up...
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Enjoy your 6"+ of cold powder
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One thing i want to at least point out is the big totals on the mesos or icon require upper level energy to perform as it moves through. I've seen many short term disappointments with that not materializing in time to match up with the progs. Not saying i think that's going to happen but it's something nobody should overlook.
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Yea, you're fringed on models. Enjoy your 6"+ of cold powder though
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Fv3 has been really steady as locked in the short range. Much less jumpy than its older brother
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Cmc looks more like the gfs than the nams/icon
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Gfs should have this one nailed by 6z tomorrow
