Bob Chill
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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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I'm pretty skeptical of that honestly. Looks good digitally but departing lows off the coast and no vigorous closed ull tracking through likely means the backside stuff will underperform.
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Measured 1.3" average and 26 degrees. I hope to get to 2" before the massive dryslot followed by meteors and fireballs and stuff.
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The thing about these "dry slots" is they aren't actually dry. Moisture is abundent but there are areas without a lifting mechanism. Lift is centered over our area basically until the moisture shuts off. I'm sure there will be some lulls at times but shortlived. Radar will continue to blossom over us for over 12 hours. Maybe 24 hours. Lol.
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Main roads are slushy in Rockville but all secondary and side roads are totally covered. Fun to drive my truck in it tho. Plenty of traction going and slowing
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Both 18z NAMs have busted low with qpf through 0z...
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Radar has confirmed there will be no lull any time soon
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Very close to 1" and it's only 7pm. Overperformer so far... lol
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I know it's a difficult time you're going through but at some point you'll have to come to grips with 1) you're getting more than 4" of snow and 2) your analysis is terrible
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Take a look at some of the loops in wv/ky/tn. Heh... we'll see how well it holds together but there is no shortage of juice to work with
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Hrrr initializes with current radar so it can be very jumpy with precip progressions during large/dynamic storms. Use with caution
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For folks north of I66 there may be no lull at all. The area of precip in WV is moving west. Radar is filling back in already. We're in a really good spot for this event
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18z fv3 qpf. Right or wrong it's the best run in the short range. We'll know tomorrow but the fv3 has been very steady leading in. Model might be pretty good for short range stuff.
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It says my yard is supposed to get less than .05 qpf by 7pm. I'm prob already over that so the event is overperforming already
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All short range guidance shows the cutoff edge getting close to I66 or thereabouts then it fills back in from the the precip in WV. I dont think the next round is coming from sw va. We'll know soon enough one way or the other
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Save your keystrokes. Sno is trying to come to grips with getting more than 2" and is trying to will the snow away
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For those who want to geek out... lol. Warm air advection precip moves in waves. Looks like ripples in the water on high res satellite. Cod site has cloudtop loop so you can track the waves. Dark blues and greens are usually the best precip because of best lift. Right now around and north of winchester has a good band and one is approaching I66 Check out this link https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-EET-1-12
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Seeing some yellows in the band south of 66. Should be the beginning of accum snow for folks with bare ground.
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I've been reluctant to move above 4-6" but 6"+ looking better every model suite. Every once in a while we get a reverse bust. Still doesn't come close to all the heartbreak over the years...
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.50 just south of you but it looks like .40 easy. Once its out on tt we'll have a better idea. Fantastic trends in the short range. Good thing we have wiggle room with the mids and surface! If we were walking the line 24 hours ago it would be a disaster. Lol
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Yep. And the snowfall will be sweet too!
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18z fv3 pushes the .50 line to the mason dixon. These are just shocking developments
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Looks like the gfs is one run away from joining the ull energy party imho. I couldnt find sour diesel for my generator so i'll have some girl scout cookies to tie me over
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This is going to give you a taste of a solid MD event. At least half of our events cant cover the roads. This is going to be a memorable one. I might be too low with 4-6" guess...
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Confirmed. Road is starting to cave. Didn't expect a coating like this before dark.
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18z looking good for the northern crew. Whooda thought?
