Bob Chill

The greens in between the yellows in moco are still mod snow just with smaller flakes. I'm over 8" now and 9" is becoming more likely every time i look at radar.

Lwx 8-12" call is going to verify in a lot of places.

100% and they will announce before 10pm.

18z nams are going to bust low west of DC. Icon has done very well with this event.

Yea, that part is atypical. I'm over 7.5" and it's still inch an hour rates. This stuff has to be close to 15:1

Yea man, it's dumping again. 8" is within the realm for sure. Love how the streets and sidewalks folded instantly like the chargers.

This is what happens with a 2 part storm. You havent experienced one yet but we get them. Feb 2014 had a nice one where i got 13" with the waa piece then big lull followed up by 3.25" in 2 hours as the upper level energy rolled through. The best part about upper level energy is it's unstable air with great snow growth. Bursts of heavy high ratio stuff like you're seeing right now.

This sure looks like the real deal. All global ens and longer range weeklies/seasonal guidance shows the exact same thing... a big red ball over Greenland with a strong signal for a west based neg nao and neg ao. Previous blocking episodes like the one being advertised last between 30-60 days with the average around 45. It will wax and wane over longer timescales but if it forms, expect it to stay. This isn't looking like a phantom digital block. If things change i'll post about it. Keep an eye on the western atlantic ridge. That's the feature that throws a wrench in next weekend but it's all part of a large scale process. The atlantic ridge should move into the nao region after next weekend.

Hey guys and gals, havent posted much this year in your sub. Next weekend is going to be really tough for snow for both our regions. Ice is a legit threat though. Beyond that things get really ripe for the mid atlantic and southeast. Davis straight block, neg ao, pos pna, and trough north of HI in the pac. Pac energy undercutting the pna ridge and suppressed flow in the east could lead to a big dog down there. This pattern is the best since 09-10 in general but appears to be colder to much colder than jan/feb 2010. Get your rest now because sleep will be at a premium here shortly...

Holy crap. My 14 year old son has been shoveling since 9am. Just walked in the door with $315. Reminds me of me when i was 14. He has 1 more job and is going to buy a refurbed macbook. Love it. I used to buy beer and other stuff with my shoveling money. I must be doing something right as a dad... lol

Euro had around .15-.20 qpf between 18-0z down that way. Very curious how well the model does with this period. Looks like leesburg area is going to overperform.

Euro had a 1-2" weenie jackpot over your house between 18-0z. Would be crazy accurate if that verifies.

There's a delay between radar picking up dendrites and the time they hit the ground. It will still be snowing nicely after the returns move away.

Interestining twist with precip down near RIC. Looks like a meso low forming

Nice band in northern balt city. Hope that overperforms

I'm only referring the to really important short range leads. The ones that forecasters have to make important decisions on. And also the ones that weenies freak out on

I think we can all probably agree that the euro did the best with this event. It had some wobbles like all ops do but the steady (and mostly correct) short range runs are verifying the best. Ukie and fv3 did well too.

Stuff out west will just kinda die out in place. All the dynamics are transitioning off the coast now. Upper level dynamcially driven snow doesn't advect like what we had overnight.

Euro gives you another 1-2" between 1pm and when it shuts off. Little weenie band. Never know with precip like this. Hope it works out for you.

Just the progression. The closer to the big high to the north the less qpf. This one was a little backwards with jackpots. Happens sometimes. Pretty even distribution though. Everyone got 4" and a large area got 5-7". Most of the time its more uneven

Right on the edge. Another .1 or so. Dc and SE is the best. Another weenie band is showing up by Winchester with another inch or 2 from now until it ends. However, euro has been moving the qpf jacks every run. Won't know how it shakes out until it shakes out.

Euro looks good for dc. Another .25 qpf from 18z on.

Very slim imo but i'm rooting like F it happens

No way to know exactly. It will blossom and curl through and exit. Will prob have a convective appearance with localized heavies and super light on either side. I'm not expecting much but east of me could have some surprises

Localized stuff is unpredictable. The precip is still advecting from the south. Havent even had the pivot yet. Should be a neat radar look once everything turns and gets the ne-sw orientation. I'm at 6.5" total and a clean 6" sitting on everything. If i managed another 1.5" that would be an 8" event which is 4 times what i first thought so won't here any complaining out of me