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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    There's a delay between radar picking up dendrites and the time they hit the ground. It will still be snowing nicely after the returns move away.
  2. Bob Chill
    Interestining twist with precip down near RIC. Looks like a meso low forming
  3. Bob Chill
    Nice band in northern balt city. Hope that overperforms
  4. Bob Chill
    I'm only referring the to really important short range leads. The ones that forecasters have to make important decisions on. And also the ones that weenies freak out on
  5. Bob Chill
    I think we can all probably agree that the euro did the best with this event. It had some wobbles like all ops do but the steady (and mostly correct) short range runs are verifying the best. Ukie and fv3 did well too.
  6. Bob Chill
    Stuff out west will just kinda die out in place. All the dynamics are transitioning off the coast now. Upper level dynamcially driven snow doesn't advect like what we had overnight.
  7. Bob Chill
    Euro gives you another 1-2" between 1pm and when it shuts off. Little weenie band. Never know with precip like this. Hope it works out for you.
  8. Bob Chill
    Just the progression. The closer to the big high to the north the less qpf. This one was a little backwards with jackpots. Happens sometimes. Pretty even distribution though. Everyone got 4" and a large area got 5-7". Most of the time its more uneven
  9. Bob Chill
    Right on the edge. Another .1 or so. Dc and SE is the best. Another weenie band is showing up by Winchester with another inch or 2 from now until it ends. However, euro has been moving the qpf jacks every run. Won't know how it shakes out until it shakes out.
  10. Bob Chill
    Euro looks good for dc. Another .25 qpf from 18z on.
  11. Bob Chill
    Very slim imo but i'm rooting like F it happens
  12. Bob Chill
    No way to know exactly. It will blossom and curl through and exit. Will prob have a convective appearance with localized heavies and super light on either side. I'm not expecting much but east of me could have some surprises
  13. Bob Chill
    Localized stuff is unpredictable. The precip is still advecting from the south. Havent even had the pivot yet. Should be a neat radar look once everything turns and gets the ne-sw orientation. I'm at 6.5" total and a clean 6" sitting on everything. If i managed another 1.5" that would be an 8" event which is 4 times what i first thought so won't here any complaining out of me
  14. Bob Chill
    Admins, this account has been hacked but dont do anything about it.
  15. Bob Chill
    This was a 10 point. Zoom screws up perception. It was huge. Taller than me and i'm 6'2". An 8 pointer came through right after and looked small.
  16. Bob Chill
    They are so used to people you could probably hunt with your bare hands... lol
  17. Bob Chill
    Had to rush to the window and zoom to get the picture so apologize for crappy everything. I've had as many as 4 bucks in the yard at the same time over the years. Nice rack on this one....queue RR or leesburg.... lol
  18. Bob Chill
    Lol- 2" best case from here. 1.3" gets my yard into double digits on the season before the hecs parade commences in a week.
  19. Bob Chill
    Dendrites starting to mix back in. Better lift coming back into the area
  20. Bob Chill
    Don't fall for the trap.
  21. Bob Chill
    Had 4.7" at 2:30am. Cleared several areas and have 1.8" avg on cleared areas so going with 6.5". Some compaction on the existing snow and most measurements barely hit 6". We'll see how the day goes but i'm not expecting much more than 1-2" tops. This part of the event typically underperforms. Hopefully someone gets under a heavy band.
  22. Bob Chill
    Final ob before my eyes slam shut 4.2" I think 6+ is a lock now
  23. Bob Chill
    I'm wondering about ratios. I have 3.7" and it def seems more than 10:1. Seems like models might be busting low on qpf. I've prob gotten .30 and that's through 6z. Most models had me around .20. Even the 3k. Sure feels like a reverse bust in progress... Eta: 3k has my yard around .45 by 12z. Pretty sure I'll have more than that looking at radar.
  24. Bob Chill
    3.7" and rates just picked back up. May be up to 5" after this round of heavier stuff moves through. Undeniable trend this year with southern shortwaves packing more juice than models were showing even in the short range. What a year around here. I still laugh at last winter's dire Armageddon drought thread.
  25. Bob Chill
    Yea, radar downstream all the way to KY looks great. On lwx radar you can see the shadow cone aiming towards CHO has filled in. That only means 1 thing.... mod snow is rolling in
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