Bob Chill

LR ensembles have done poorly with the AO/NAO since the beginning of November. The GEFS 7 day progs are usually pretty darn close to reality but the last 2 sharp drops werent modeled well and the recent one was totally missed. This is the primary reason that LR "warmups" havent materialized. Right now ens seem to agree on a flip positive for both the AO and NAO. That would support a warming trend into mid month. My gut says there will be a relax but how much and for how long is hard to get a handle on given recent trends. My guess is blocking will redevelop before the end of the month so the warm period won't have legs if it happens. Personally, I'm leaning towards blocking coming back and another period of decent wintry weather before we close out the month. Fits the pattern personality we've been seeing so far.

It has some inverted trough characteristics. It looks "weird" because of blocking mostly. The shortwave is decent but the sledgehammer above it is pounding on top so it can't really get organized with a broader precip shield. Hammer and nail effect. Backside of the shortwave is pretty sharp but the front is hammered flat

Upper air pattern is pretty potent with the neg nao breaking down but no sign of a big storm trigger yet. Just looking at the indices makes you think an Archambault type event is I the cards but the northern stream is so busy that it's running interference on itself lol. Something compact but potent n the NS could pop imho. Blocking is quite strong over the next 5 days then things unwind for a bit. Interesting and complex period on tap. Not really a setup that "locks into" anything so it would be a mistake to marry anything in the mid/long ranges

Took the dog out for a long evening walk and man it was nice. Winter appeal everywhere and really got me in the mood for Christmas. Hope it looks just like this

I've always thought that. It was just incredibly bad luck. The WAA piece was mature but it completely fizzled to nothing on the transfer. Usually when it's mature like that, the metros get some ok accum snow before the skip over and pounding NE. Boxing day was some sort of payback for 09-10 lol

That specific storm isn't showing up for now but it was a wintry month just with some bad breaks in the MA. Interestingly, Dec 1995, 2010, and 2013 are all showing up in the mix.

Dec 2010 has been showing up on the analogs last few days. I was going to post about it except there was a certain storm near a certain holiday that certain people spent lots of money on ptsd treatment and drugs afterwords.... but here we are... bring it. My new yard enjoyed that month.

Train tracks, atmospheric memory, butts and horseshoes, and stuff like that.

12/2: T .003" zr and 5-6 sleet pellets 12/5: 3.0

Final total 3". Wintry scene out there. Skunk ratter off the table.

Still snowing but I don't think it will accum much additional. Lucky event down here for this early in the season. I'm building a large retaining wall and I'm pretty beat up from the last 2 days. A snow day is therapeutic for reals lol

Looks awesome! I got about 3" here. Very scenic with it sticking to everything. Not a high ratio event. Was a bit too warm when it started.

Nope, there is no advantage in any enso other than dumb luck. Small storms have small stripes and I'm getting lucky. No other factors to consider.

I don't have a lot of friends today except for my bestie... 12z gfs

I got 11" last year and it was the best of the 3 since we bought property here. 2 previous were basically shutouts. Sounds awesome right? Lol

Lol. Usually keep a grapple on the front of my tractor but I switched it to the bucket today... to move gravel...but you never know lol. Could bomb off the coast and drop a foot. I'm sticking to gut call of 1-2" but would gladly accept the 18z gfs or 12z low res nam haha

I'm not feelin a nam like solution with qpf but I do like all guidance running a measurable stripe through my region. Pretty sold on the 1-2" potential. Above that is possible but light events are what they are. H5 is pretty flat. 100% stoked that it's a daylight event with a start around sunrise.

Over the last 10-12 years we've had a lot of a zippy busy northern stream action when we're in the game. Lots of mid range flip flops and phantoms. The good thing is the phantoms break both ways and what looks like a nothingburger at d5+ can become a somethingburger at d4- lol. Tracking can be frustrating because any second or 3rd or 4th or whatever shortwave in line is never locked in. I no longer get deeply involved or overthink in patterns like this until a potential event is first in line. Otherwise it's just an exercise in chasing tails and kicking rabbits

I'm cautiously optimistic for an accum event down here. Trajectory and strength keeps the typical waa risk in the mid levels at bay. Surface temps look surprisingly good. Current cold rain event bucked the lead up dry trend we've been seeing for basically months. Ingredients are there for an efficient accumulater. Limited max potential though so 1-2" would be a reasonable expectation at this point but there's not a lot of wiggle room for mixing problems in my hood and those problems seem to find any way possible to show up no matter what the lead time is lol

A little neg ao/nao goes a long way. Closed ridge over GL and closed low over NF is a pretty classic way to get something to work in the MA/SE. Especially in my hood.

Never was in the game for snow but it's colder than forecast down my way. Sitting at 30 degrees and precip should start around 3am. Frozen is frozen or something like that lol

I was just going to post this response lol. NAO has been mostly positive since 2011 lol. Majority of times we've had a -nao it was bootleg and not really classic. Jan 2016 was a good west based one. We wasted a few others but if you look at the #s it looks like we wasted some good ones but they really weren't that good in reality. #s don't tell the whole story. A good -AO (which has also been lacking) pushes the northern jet south entirely so colder air is more entrenched over a much larger part of the conus. That works too even when the nao isn't friendly. Stale air is still cold in the mids and not running away like a scalded dog. There have been some pretty big stretches in the past with mostly +AO winters but the current one is def on the long side. Would make a huge difference to have a good 30-45 day -AO. If it was right now the current storms coming over the next week would be whiter than wetter but it's not breaking that way. Cold is running away pretty quick and it's not very deep to begin with. Dec 2013 had a big artic high that pushed way south before heading east. The cold highs over the next week or so are pretty shallow and on the move. That's dicey in January.

Hope all my old digital friends to the north have a great holiday. 3 of our 4 kids made the trip for the weekend and we're eatin' good tonight. 16lb brined and spice rubbed bird just came off the smoker. 3 hour cook using lump charcoal and a couple chunks of apple wood in the mix. Havent had any yet but pretty sure it's going to be amazing

BWI: 19.2" DCA: 11.6" IAD: 22.3" RIC: 9.8" SBY: 11.7"

Oh yeah