Bob Chill

As the days go by the less we know about Dec. Lol. I'm not mad at the weekly plot you posted. It's not that far from something that can work. Better than last year's no chance in hell pattern

All major teleconnections can be stable or volatile. I'd say the PNA and EPO are similar in their inherent stability/volatility. Sometimes one phase dominates for weeks/months and other times it bounces back and forth. Right now is a transition month so there's too much inherent volatility to predict anything beyond 1-2 weeks. It's entirely possible that the PNA spends more time - than + during met winter. Seeing a -PNA during late fall or early winter is very common and imo isn't a much of a clue for long lead guessing.

Yep. Looks like a typical -PNA period where the western ski areas get dumped on for a couple weeks. Not warm here but still far from a good snow pattern here. However, the PNA typically oscillates so even if the EPS is right it's not unreasonable to expect the PNA to flip back + after the storm cycle. These types of patterns commonly hold for 1-2 weeks. We're still a month away from our climo not fighting us with every little detail. I'm good with everything as is and can easily envision how it could improve at a time when our area stands a chance at a snow event.

A little digital snow and some mid winter lows got the game started early this year. DCA often doesn't hit freezing until Dec. Lol

We still pretty much still have no idea how Dec is going to unfold let along met winter. Doesn't matter if it's 80 degress this week or if we get a foot of snow. Dec will be here soon enough. I just want to have at least 1 decent event in Dec. A simple 3-5" event in Dec. Statistically that would put this year in like the top 20%. Lol. If Dec sucks it will be just like the other 80% of sucky Decs

Yea, when a long lead forecast works out the internet warriors make sure they yell it from the tallest mountain day after day. When they bust they slink away and go radio silent or spend days saying how the "forecast was correct BUT....". Lol.

Redkskins need to draft a new owner in the first round.

Exactly. Seasonal guidance has been rock steady at Dec featuring a mostly to exceptionally bad long wave pattern. If we kick off Dec with a non shutout or even a good winter wx pattern then it's a pretty big win all things considered

Doesn't it seem exceptionally early to be riding the model roller coaster like it's mid winter? I'm still completely undecided on whether or not Dec is going to be a complete disaster shutout pattern or something less hostile. That's all I care about. Worrying about a 2-3 day warmup in Nov seems over the top even for the MA sub. We'd probably be better off if it never got below normal this month. The second we had lows in the 20s the bar was raised from just getting a freeze out of the way to expecting a sig snow event. Lol

All the ens are doing is finally agreeing on the timing of a trough in the west and subsequent height rises in the east. Normal fall weather... The progression has been hinted at with both ops and ens for days with the main disagreement being timing. That's being resolved now. The only thing I didn't like seeing is the AK trough/vortex on the 0z eps d10-15. It's the typical feature that can screw up blocking (think 12-13). It's mid November though. Lol. Did people think the current cold pattern was going to lock and load for 100+ days straight? It's almost 100% certain Dec will feature a warm spell. Why? Because it happens almost 100% of the time. The big question is will a shutout pattern show up or not in Dec? I'll wait until I finish my pumpkin and apple pie before deciding that

I'm out. Time to open the 20-21 winter thread.

I like this site. I haven't seen dacula's page so might be similar https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml ECMF has the highest verification scores but I look at all of them and see the spread. Sometimes they all look similar and other times very different. When in doubt hug the ecmf

Bristow is close already and the ens runs look great. Lol

Dude, if you find the 18z gefs troubling the you must be trying hard to find something wrong. It's another great run and implies cold to very cold temps will kick off Dec and continue. Snow in Nov is always great but unlikely. All I see is an amplified cold pattern setting up in early Dec. We havent had that since 2013.

Exactly. Tropics are a true heat engine and no doubt have a deep and lasting influence on precip and pressure patterns downstream. I think ssta maps can be deceptive visually with northern waters. In many cases the water around those bright orange temp anoms are in the 30s and 40s. There's not much if any heat to release and change weather patterns. Anomaly configurations themselves are important clues as to what's going on above though

I'm in the camp that beleives the troposphere drives the anomaly way more than water temps. Anomaly maps look like the water is boiling but ground truth is water temps are still only in the low 40s at best. It's one thing in the EQ region but the npac is never really "warm". The "blob" in the GoA during 13-15 was ssts in the low 50s. Can 50 degree water actually create a stable upper level ridge? I'd say no, not at all. Maybe helps with feedback?

I'm becoming interested in the holiday week. NAO relaxes while the EPO/PNA gets erect. Amplifying cold with a relaxing block makes me think the period is ripe for a coastal/Achambault type event. I'll be up in SW CT so my temporary climo will be greatly improved. We'll probably start seeing some digital fantasy storms as leads shorten.

I'm surprised how positive the ao and nao are. Ignoring everything else it's never a good sign and not one I want to see in Dec as it can be a bad omen if it were to happen. Maybe it's the opposite of last year and weeklies/seasonals keep showing a flip to +ao/nao that never verifies.

I've been too lazy to sign back up with wxbell. Someone needs to post weeks 3-4 from the euro weeklies unless they look like turds. I'm ignoring all bad looks until further notice

I just look at the areas with the strongest height anomalies as those features are what the model suite is seeing as the highest probability. Lowest heights north of the Aleutians and in the NAO region and strong ridging north of HI is a really bad combo for snow in the eastern half of the conus. The CFS implies a warm conus pattern with a storm track to our west. If the cfs weekly or monthly pattern is right then the hottest thread in our sub will be the panic room. Lol The good thing is seasonal guidance totally missed the Nov pattern. Especially the AO/NAO region. Another reminder that long lead models are unreliable and cannot be trusted. I love what I see right now in real time through the next 10 days. Gets even better d10-15. If that becomes a persistant pattern then the panic room might go out of business.

Bodies are very resilient. They can handle a lot of abuse and still snap back even when you're old. The most important thing you can do is eat right. It's more important than regular exercise. Never try and fix everything at once as it's not possible. Humans are serious creatures of habit. Start by changing things one little thing at a time and it will all fall into place. I'll be in SW CT for the holiday later this month. Starting to think there's a chance for some snowfall while I'm there. If so I'm logging it in my yard's seasonal total.

GEPS jumping on board too and throws a -NAO in just for fun. GEPS has a really nice mean pattern. Cold supply, -EPO/NAO combo, split flow/bagginess in the SW undercutting the PNA ridge, and a 50/50... I mean what's not to like on this panel other than the fact it's the GEPS? lol I had a hunch the EPO would play nice at times this winter. Not claiming I thought it would happen out of the gate but nice to see the general idea may show up pretty quick. \ I'm waiting for the CFS weekly to start to cave on week 3 but it's steadfast showing a dog doo pattern in early Dec. I put a lot more credence in the global ens than seasonal stuff but considering we're still talking 2 weeks out it's hard to hug any outcome yet.

-EPO signal keeps getting stronger on the GEFS as we close out the month. Something to watch for sure. It's one way to defeat climo temps that normally make it hard to snow early season. A lot of members have either sig cold in place or nearby as we enter Dec

Yea, I don't like thinking about it. I've been successful so far just by being smart about it. According to my doc/insurance I have to get the injections next before anything else. $900/per even with decent insurance and they may not work at all. Getting old sucks man. If I knew I was going to live this long 30 years ago I would have taken better care of myself.

Based on the last 10 years. Going AN in our area in Dec is a high probability call just cuz