Bob Chill

@MillvilleWx would get a foot of ice before me. That sucks. All I want is a cat 5 up the potomac and a foot of ice. 2 very simple things and I'm not getting any younger so it better happen soon

Imagine it? We've lived it more times than anyone wants to imagine or remember. Half a dusting kicks my yard's ass though. I have half a swamp so at least I got something

But you said the southern stream was dead

These types of setups are notorious for underperforming. The disjointed surface and upper level low aren't in sync. Not much heavy/banded precip. If the airmass was cold it would have been half decent almost everywhere but fighting marginal rates at 33+ degrees is always a bummer. We do that really well here at times. Lol

I haven't looked too close but it sure seems like a pretty big I95 bust north of us.

No persistence to rely on yet in North America so our brains can't see through the computers. lol Had a blocky pattern in general going for a few weeks that's evaporated and now looks like progressive is going to take over for the next few weeks. Both were modeled "ok" in the D10-15 range so we can prob trust the current d10-15 general pattern showing up. Which isn't very exciting but if anything (as you've already said), the big warning flags in the long range keep getting muted and delayed. Could be a clue that the general NA pattern has a tendency to be more amplified.

Everything is right down the middle. Not bad enough to worry and not good enough to like it. lol. I'm not thinking we have much of a chance for the next 2 weeks unless something runs the gauntlet. Would be nice to get the atl & pac to play nice together this month. Sometime around the 24th-25th would be acceptable.

It's a shame today's band of ULL enhanced precip is just a little too warm. This could have easily been a light event for most. OTOH- we generally need multiple chances before something happens. We've had a few already so if the variable pattern coming up isn't too hostile maybe something pops up before mid month.

Exactly and your OP was poking fun at grossly overstated red flags and not agreeing with it

It's always perspective. I was never impressed overall leading into this year and expected Dec to really suck until recently. I'm with you. If we don't torch second half and have some winter wx of any kind during the last 10 days of the month it will be satisfying. It's a bit of a shame the current storm didn't happen 2 weeks later. We'd be shoveling 2-6" right now. Heh

If this spread is where we are in 2 weeks then we're in the game at a time where we don't need an impressive airmass No signs of the stout blocking we've recently had returning anytime soon but I'm not picky early season and what I'm seeing is improving chances for some sort of event as we approach mid month.

The only thing wrong is the WAR (west atlantic ridge). That usually causes storms to cut west of us. Even with that it's not a shutout look. Not exciting but not a disaster. It's also not terribly far from a good pattern.

Long range looks like perfectly typical early winter in these parts. Not too warm, not too cold, and not snowy without a fluke. As we move later into the year, the same type of pattern has an easier time working out in some fashion. For now we just sit back and wait. Prob for at least 2 weeks.

Hrrr is rippin fatties in mt airy at 10z. Image won't embed or I'm dumb but here's the sounding https://imgur.com/a/SVaZ9WN

This is the complete game Turgeon has been looking for to back up their ranking. I've watched most games and the Terps have had too many slow starts and sloppy play. Start to finish great game today.

Nothing is coming easy anytime soon and I think we can all agree on that. Not impossible tho so just letting the tape play out for a couple weeks and letting the chips fall is about all we can do. December is a pretty low prob winter wx month. Especially the first half. Imho- the next real window will be a progressive +pna period. Not optimal but workable. Just a guess.

In some dead space with no imminent threat worth dissecting and huge spread in the long range so we don't really have much to discuss there. However, the pattern in general isn't a shutout so something interesting can pop up any time. Until then we quiet. It is kind of amusing that we start Dec tomorrow and nobody has a clue how the month will shake out in the end. Dec events don't come easy but gut hunch is saying we'll get a couple shots during the second half of the month. Maybe a 1-2' NC to Philly coastal on the 24th. Big block will keep sne under blue skies.

Yea, dryslots will kill your soul when they happen. Especially unforecasted. Your yard's climo can be in a tough spot sometimes with classic track coastals. Otoh- you've had some good luck with scrapers so prob all evens out.

Yea, not being in the game at all is a good thing sometimes. I did an amazing hike at Devil's Den Preserve yesterday with my bro in law. If you're ever near that place I highly recommend checking it out. Basically no people and a thousand acres of trails through rugged terrain. Talked to the only person I saw on the trails and he said people go there and cross country ski and snowshoe when it snows. Prime Jebwalk location.

Just arrived back in Rockville. For some really dumb, weird, and strange reason I couldn't talk anyone except my dog into staying in CT tomorrow for the storm. So I was left with the only option of chasing front end cold rain and possibly some random really warm snow falling on soggy muddy ground. I'm rooting for everyone in CT to get dry slotted and warm nosed except you. Hope you get crushed dude.

Yea, recurring theme with ens showing the pna going up and it's logical. Prob fight through some crap first but I'm expecting a +pna period of a week+ sometime in Dec. Happens often after a storm cycle in the west. Rockies/Sierra etc look to get a steady stream of good storms. When that cuts off we'll likely see a big ridge out there as everything rolls forward. I'm patient and have no problem waiting until mid Dec or beyond before we get some legit chances. No real troubling signs anywhere. Heck, ens show a closed epo ridge in 10-15 days. We know exactly what a +pna/-epo/+nao can do because we've had a lot of that last 4 years. It's not perfect and good events don't come easy but keep that pattern going for a week or 2 and odds favor some sort of event.

Agree. Concerning is when we're staring down the barrel of a toaster bath pattern. I'm not seeing that. Quite rare to stay below normal temp wise when the AO flips positive and that's pretty much a lock. Pattern doesn't look worse than 1 step away from something workable though. Much better than needing 2-3 weeks and like 4 steps to get into the goods. If NA turns into a giant bubble of warm pac air I'll get concerned.

Keep it simple and just look at the height pattern itself. Majority of ens members see an Aleutian trough, +pna ridge and trough in the east. Some hints of a -AO as well. Just envision how that general pattern translates to sensible wx in the east. Decent right? Long lead mean patterns are very smooth and rounded due to large spread. Weather itself never looks all smooth and rounded so use ens mean panels in a very general sense and not verbatim.

Of course I'd much prefer a -ao but the long range doesn't look bad at all anymore. There will likely be a shortlived period of zonal/pac air next week but there's universal agreement on the pna going up and keeping us in a "non-shutout pattern". My gut hunch is the epo will not be hostile either. I'm also not sold on a long duration big nasty +ao setting up shop. A lot of hints being dropped that blocking (of some kind) will be close by. We all want a perfect pattern 24/7 but that's no how it works. Ultimately we just need to spend as much time as possible in a non-shutout pattern and just let simple odds take over. Our area typically needs 4 legit chances per event that actually delivers. Keep the non shutout pattern going, the chances coming, and we'll score. There's nothing worse than a 4-6+ week shutout pattern setting up during met winter. I'm not seeing that threat at all right now and that's a good reason to have a happy weenie

Not trying to insult anyone because the strat is complicated and there are some sharp people that know a lot about it.... but... I've read plenty of strat analysis over the years and imho we'd be better off ignoring it for the most part. The connection to the trop is too volatile and unreliable. A lot of false hope and/or unexpected outcomes. The SPI (strat posting index) is dead nuts reliable though cuz when the strat gets more attention than the surface we're in a close the blinds pattern nearly 100% of the time.