Bob Chill

It's legit unfortunately. I don't think it's possible to start off with a much drier airmass than this one lol. Especially this far south. That said, it's not a clipper and the front side of the snow is WAA and it's super juicy to the south. It may not take too long to get things saturated. Ratios may start off kinda weak then fluff up as we go into the night. 10:1 seems like a safe bet unless there's an enhanced band of lift with staying power. This is a good example sounding of what I'm thinking. Flakes won't be big and fluffy with those omegas. Last couple hours of snowfall look much better though and time will tell like always.

Hot springs is about 100 miles to my NW. Different world out there though. Appalachian counties have their own climate. Closer to WV than blue ridge areas.

Love me a good edible. Just the taste though. I don't actually eat them. I learned that from Bill Clinton

As the LW flow transitions away from Atl blocking to EPO, we're going to lose mid/long range tracking of discrete threats. It's been easy to see windows in the mid/long range last few weeks. Be prepared for that to go poof. Progressive epo patterns can have threats materialize out of thin air inside of d5 and anything showing beyond day 5 can be a total ghost. Run over run changes of storms and their tracks can and will have wild swings and it should be expected and not blamed on "awful models" Models are just tools. We say this all the time. Using any tool requires practice and skill to use it properly. It'd be a good time to practice a little first before blaming models for stealing your snow

Appreciate it. Been a long wait to see this area with a cold blanket of snow. I'll take 100s of pics heh. I'm not seeing a high chance at 3-5" widespread. That's 10:1 and higher end of qpf forecasts. Airmass is super dry too so virga and stuff. Our penhook place is at 930' so less virga but still..... virga... lol

Been surprisingly cold since the snow/ice. Trees are still holding ice in shaded areas today. Smith mtn is frosty up top. This is the east side around noon. Most of my pics lately have been west side. There's a nice sized hawk sitting on a branch enjoying the view looking for lunch. WSW for 3-5" down here. Seems top end even with being closer to the juice but a 5" storm would be pretty damm awesome.

Been an interesting year. Feels like a changing of the guard from the persistent hell last 7 years or so. We don't even talk about the pac jet this year heh. Agree on your mjo posts. Imo- When the mjo is persistently bad, it's not the root cause of our woes, it's just another instrument in the symphony working against us. Works both ways too. LR models have busted badly breaking down a favorable mjo too quickly. I see the mjo as a persistence indicator. Like when it's being stubborn in general and it coincides with delayed or busted prog'd pattern flips in the conus. That's a really bad sign but it's certainly not all caused by the mjo. Persistence trumps climo and long range models are very climo based. We see this over and over. Majority of winters have 1-2 dominant features and they don't always line up with enso climo. Figuring those out in advance is hard of course but these features can often dominate a winter no matter what lr models say. Imo- things are lookin pretty good for us down the line

Yea, for my yard, more than half of the modest qpf is waa/warm front. A colder/weaker but similar setup to the last one. 10:1 with waa is top end. Lift is weak/modest in the cold side too. Snow growth will unlikely be optimal so 10:1 on the cold side is prob top end too. Some of the juicier runs this AM are sweet but I'm feeling conservative here. Topping 4" even with .4 qpf is unlikely. Not complaining. Still totally stoked to see this area with a fresh blanket of cold snow.

It's pretty interesting really. If we stay cold d10+ it will be for different reasons. So we currently have a pretty epic/classic block period that looks to relax into *potentially* a +AO and deeply negative EPO. It's like a highlight reel of the large scale longwave patterns that bring us cold temps and maybe ok snow lol. Historically, a progressive -EPO isn't something we want for snowfall but the 2013-15 stretch is either a clue that it's more favorable nowadays or it was lucky AF and a return to regularly scheduled programming of warm/wet -> cold/dry is more likely lol.

The guy who's wrecked by Columbus day is worried about your 4 posts and the hidden meaning behind them, friend.

I disagree

I was thinking most of us can read and there was nothing to realize or not realize regarding Celsius

None?

When I lived in the rockies we got used to cold down to -5 regularly. You can dress for it and keep the wind off you so it was "workable". But when arctic air did drop down (not as common as you would think), we'd have like a week straight of lows in the valleys at 15 to 25 below. -25 is dumb. There is nothing good about it lol. I once had a tear freeze my eyelashes together and couldn't open an eye. My bare hand stuck to the steering wheel once lol and whenever you breathed through your nose, it would freeze your sniffles instantly lol. It was novel but not much fun. Plus it couldn't really snow much below zero. Air was too cold to hold enough moisture.

If ens got d13-15 right, it will be pretty cold but progressive. I know you know this but when models start spitting out rain chasing fleeing cold others (Ji...) should be expecting lol. It can dump of course but it's an awful pattern for long lead tracking lol

Yessir. Temp wise the pattern looks pretty much climo norms with a bias towards colder to me. But it also looks like the storm track could be anywhere along the eastern 3rd of the country. We are in the heart of cold snow climo with the minimum temp anomaly required. Timing is good for the general setup. Down the line keeps looking more and more like jan/Feb 2014-15 lol. The ultimate progression would be a couple weeks of the +tnh pattern followed by a -AO/NAO reload. Hahaha

Looks like at least some snow is favored in the majority of the juicy solutions but they are likely mixed events. Unusually trong agreement d10+ that a precip maker hits during the 20th window. Pretty tight grouping for long range. Should consolidate over the coming days. Hopefully the snow idea consolidates with it lol

If you don't mind, post the same with precip and not snowfall. Would give a good snapshot at rain risk with juicier solutions.

It's easy in the sense that it's overrunning along a boundary and not a dynamic low pressure system. This isn't really a storm as much as a modest precip shield gliding thru. Different variables and far less dynamics makes this more cut and dry

Things haven't wavered here much. Different perspective than what you guys are looking for. That said, this is an overrunning system more than anything. Moisture streaming from the SW with modest lift in the general MA area. Would take very little to get the 2-4 line running thru at least DC. If models keep adding to the northern extent today and tomorrow, it's unlikely for them to go poof again.

The boom potential is prob just simple moisture transport. How juicy can it get before deteriorating upper levels? Neutral or neg tilt seems near impossible at this point so just need the slug to be coherent as it pulls north. Won't be fun watching it weaken as it approaches but not much you can do about it

I'm rootin hard for a nice event in my old stomping ground. Why? Because it means my new stomping ground is doing even better.

Hard to not like this trio of ens mean panels even though it's late in their runs.... Crazy similar for d12+. Uncommon for sure

Agree. Something can still wiggle thru but there is little if any chance at an organized system for the next 10-12 days. Interesting after though. Plenty of residual cold and no big mechanism to kick it out. A basic cold front would be enough to flip to snow ready if we go warm for a few days. Ens mean precip panels pretty much agree that the next organized system is coming out of the deep south so gulf appears open. CAD/west tracks could work "ok" if we can't get something more classic. Optimism is pretty high for me even if things get a little messy

What's your favorite flavor? I like magenta