Bob Chill

The jackpot stripe is obscuring my yard so I can't tell how much I win by.

Cohen actually taught me a very good lesson about the spv and tpv. The tpv cannot be predicted at all from any lead beyond a week or 2. The spv actually can be predicted somewhat further in advance but what the spv does to the troposphere/sensible wx cannot be predicted at all so it doesn't matter if you get the strat right or wrong.

There's no way to know. Could flip on a dime with a pna or epo ridge popping up or it can persist for weeks. I always assume a minimum of 5 days to recover once flow is deflected away from the coast. I won't worry about a way out unless we end up in it first.

This shows it better. Here's d8-15 850 temp loop. The beginning of the trouble starts d7 so it's not all that far in the future.

Here's d15 h5. You can make a case for both good or bad down the line. The issue that I'm seeing happens during d10-15. A series of troughs in the epac scour nearly all of NA from cold continental air. Here's the d10-15 mean 850 anomalies.... If this verifies then it will take some work to recover.

There's definitely a way to make it work d7-10. No wiggle room as shown. I'm a little jaded with trends in the mid range though. The follow up rainstorm this weekend looked like a nice cad/snow event in the d8-10 range but it significantly devolved in the wrong direction as leads shortened. Each window is unique. Maybe something pops. After next weekend is looking rough.

Nice shift on the euro for mid next week. 50/50 blocks hp from escaping as the wave moves through the tn valley. IMO- if the progression happened exactly like the euro shows, it would be mostly or entirely snow/frozen precip. It's a good setup verbatim. ETA: this is a good panel showing what I am saying. This is a bread and butter snow and/or ice event setup

Euro a little quicker with the cold compared to 0z (I haven't looked at the 6z run). That can only help. QPF will still dance around but considering it's cold chasing precip, the faster the column gets right for snowfall the better off we are.

When we first saw this week's frontal wave, the period beyond looked really good. The ens mean h5 setup looked pretty nice for a chance at a decent event. That period now looks like crap. Not total crap but crap compared to what we were thinking a week ago. The cold front this week initially looked like a really nice push of cold air is going to verify as a weak sauce transient cold hp with a rainstorm on the heels. There does look to be another shot at something d7-10 so we'll see how that goes. My gut (unfortunately) is telling me that things will degrade with less available cold and lower chances at an event.

3k nam is encouraging with the column. At 1AM my yard is 36 but the freezing line is just off the deck. Precip knocks the surface down close to freezing with ease. Now does the cold really push that efficiently? I'd say not quick as nice as shown on the 3k but it's an interesting sounding either way.

I'd happily wake up to this Wed morning

@WinterWxLuvr The GEFS mean looks much better than the EPS but the underlying problem with the pacific is still very present inside of the GEFS mean. Here's the spread inside of the 6z mean. Notice how many solutions have a trough near the west coast with the pac jet running straight into the conus. Very few solutions with type of split flow setup that works here. There's not a single member solution that looks attractive below.

The biggest wildcard is whether or not the mid range blocking is a sign that the longwave pattern is shifting back to blocky for a longer period than a few days. Blocking can offset the unfavorable stuff in the Pac. Sometimes the pac will still overwhelm even with HL blocking and other times it's enough to keep us in the game. The ao/nao ens trends have been good recently. That's a bright spot. It's entirely possible things get so good above we don't have to care what's happening to the left. Gefs/geps are backing off from a hostile pac. Eps looks fairly atrocious. If the eps shifts towards the gefs/geps I'll feel a lot better.

It gets tiring sometimes. It's like we can't talk about mild risk because the second the topic comes up it suddenly morphs into winter cancel. It could be no mild period, a very short one, or a really long one. Don't know. That's why we open the discussion. To figure it out...

Not in the next 10 days and nobody knows for sure what happens after. There is decent agreement for an unfavorable epac trough setting up and filling the conus with maritime air but does it actually happen? If it does, how long will it last? Nodoby knows these answers for certain. Not even the most powerful weather supercomputers in the world. It's something to watch. That is all.

Cmc and gfs are very similar. Good sign when globals are that close 72 hrs or less from an event. Euro will prob look similar. Blend of mesos and globals gives much of the area between .2 - .4 qpf as snow with some lollies .6+. I don't expect my yard to be efficient with stickage. Hopefully 1-2" if things break right.

I think some version is coming. Seeing too much agreement. Could be wrong and it could be nothing but having a full latitude trough along the west coast of any kind starts a process that almost always takes 5+ days minimum to reverse. Again, I'm not saying I think anything is locked in and anything and everything can change. It's an important feature to watch over the next week. It's not a carbon copy. I never said that. It's completely normal for north america to get filled with maritime air at times during a winter. Sometimes it's short lived and other times it never goes away. But it always happens so don't expect any winter to not have some pac floods.

We better hope ens guidance is wrong leading into the holidays. I won't mind a warm Christmas as long as a quick end is in sight. If the gefs/eps upper level pattern is right then we might end up in an extended shutout pattern. No way to sugarcoat the upper air pattern the gefs and eps are showing.

Nothing personal or anything but I always put my yard above all else so please stay at school.

Eps and gefs really open up a mid latitude flood of pac air. The idea is gaining consensus. Prob temporary and nothing to freak out over if it happens at all but if a full latitude trough crashes into the west in 1-2 weeks and pumps the pac into the conus (or NA) nobody should be surprised.

One thing that has been very consistent so far this season is the medium range rarely ends up looking like what the long range says. So far things have broken in our favor more often than going the wrong way. Medium range blocking we're seeing now was never even advertised in the long range. Being honest, I really have no clue how the second half of the month goes. Doesn't look like prime deep winter nor does it look like a toaster bath. However, we pretty much always have a warm spell (5+/- days) in Dec. I don't think this month will avoid it.

These minute shifts in front orientation make a big difference right? Gfs and icon sped up the mid level push a little. That's important for the corridor and your hood.

A lot of signs on the ens that we lose the Pac in a couple weeks. Not saying I think we flip warm and stay there but it sure looks like (to me) a relax is coming for north america in general.

Agree again. We need a lot to go right to snow so even a half decent general pattern is still quite far from an actual event. The issue that I see prob wearing the board down over the next couple weeks is inherent chaos/madness in active flow. Absolutely nothing can be trusted beyond 5 days and even if we do pull something off it will unlikely be a long track or even medium track. Lol. OTOH- active/progressive flow loves to "surprise" us when we aren't even looking.

Not trying to sound cold or crass here but... it's been a waiting game for like 2 years so the news was more of a relief than sad. Suffering at the end is so much worse than the end. Holding both my parents' hands through their end of life battle was like 100x harder than when they actually passed. I think the biggest internal issue all this stuff raises is my own mortality. I'm getting close to next in line and I struggle with that sometimes. It's not like I'm super old or anything and should live another 20-30 years at least but still... see the "changing of the guard" over the last 10 years is quite unsettling at times.