Bob Chill

Agreed. One of the better h5 looks of the year right here. Legit 50/50 and -NAO.

It prob won't work that way. Something will pop up in the medium range after we already wrote it off in the long range. Flow is very busy. Has the feel that something will work out. Might not be clean or pretty but the pattern is way better than a shutout and it's not terribly hard to get an event mid Dec onward.

It does and we use the term loosely to describe any blocking low pressure near the martimes. The one in question is transient and on the move. A true classic 50/50 is held in place by a -NAO and that's how we typically get the really big storms but we've had many events work out with transient ones.

18z ICON shifted much closer together with the 50/50 and plains shortwave. This looks pretty good to me and it's not weeks into the future.

I'm not exactly sure what you're asking. Is there a panel you can post showing what time frame and area of lower heights you're asking about?

Snowing at Deep Creek now. Looks like the front is crossing through Cumberland.

Quick scan shows typical wide spread but def a cluster that delivers on the waa piece (control run included). Not too many flush hits with a nice track but I liked seeing a good # delivering measurable even with the west/overhead track.

Yea, there's a clear path to victory and the 50/50 won't be resolved for a few days. Interestingly, the euro is tanking the NAO leading into the event. Next panels are better but it's clearly building by hr144

This is a better view of the spread. About even with all rain or mixed. All snow is possible but least likely imo.

GEFS had a couple euro'ish solutions. Wide spread across the board though. Being honest... this has the feel of slipping away to the NW so if that's going to happen lets just get it over with and stop being teased.

Yea, last time I checked the NWS mission is to make sure there are no surprises when it comes to hazardous weather.

That's ok. It could take a decade or more for a storm to actually happen like the d10+ gfs is showing

Maybe it's just me but I have a thing for epic simulated southern stream panels

The entire 500mb height field shifted north so you could see it coming pretty early. Many days of mid-range shifts coming up so maybe this breaks in our favor. If it's going to track west at least give us some waa love. We have a decent cold hp and a 50/50 setup. Wasting that on not getting a single flake would be exceptionally lame.

No doubt the most attractive setup at a non-fantasy range we've seen so far. I like it. The main worry is how far north the shortwave tracks west of the MS river. There is a transient block in place to keep the hp locked in. Would suck if the shortwave tracks overhead and areas north get their second nice event of the year while we twiddle our thumbs.

Gfs juiced up and shows more of a banded structure like the mesos. Gfs likes SoMD for a nice band this run. I'm really liking the 0z suite. The heaviest stripes will keep moving around but bands of heavier qpf may make some happy weenies

I really like seeing the heavy bands showing up as leads close. There's good jet support and lift. Need that to coincide with the best moisture. Like this panel...

Icon with the best run in days. Moving towards the rgem/hrdps as well...

3k no doubt is moving towards the ace mesos... HDRPS & RGEM are locked

10 days ago we discussed in detail how this week looks to have the best potential for snowfall this winter so I respectfully disagree.

They basically tell us nothing other than long duration extreme wx patterns are unlikely. Imgur app isn't giving me direct links so I can't embed but here's the 30 day mean for d15-45. I have never seen such an ambiguous panel. Lol http://imgur.com/a/XKJR0Yp ETA: @psuhoffman. Lol- identical thoughts again. Uncanny at times

They look good enough. Very seasonable start to finish with no major torches or ice boxes. The MA region oscillates equally between slightly above and below normal temps start to finish. If anything, the entire 45 day period looks just like the next 2 weeks. Not great, not a shutout, and should provide chances off and on. One thing I noticed is there are no strong 500mb height anoms parked anywhere. No strong teleconnection signals either. That tells me that inside of the weekly's mean panels are equal distribution of every possible outcome. Lol.

It's no doubt going to be the biggest event of the year. Yuuuuge

Nailed it Yep, but don't tell psu i have a flatbed trailer and a front loader hitched up to my truck so i can sneak up there and steal all his snow before he wakes up. There will be a 6" lollie in Rockville no matter what.

I posted yesterday that guidance is converging on .2 - .4 qpf as snow through most of the region with some .6 lollies. That didn't change today. With the obvious temp issues but good timing in the middle of the night it's still perfectly reasonable to think 1-2" in everyone's yard west of 95 and outside of the heat island areas.