Jump to content

Bob Chill

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    35,956

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Yea, I don't think that's the most likely outcome with the track as shown. It's a very good look for these parts. I like it.
  2. Bob Chill
    I like the euro progression a lot. Temp problems verbatim but that type of progression is perfect for a moderate event in these parts. I'm not worried about the mix stuff as shown. 12z has been good today.
  3. Bob Chill
    Euro def weaker/sheared/south from 0z
  4. Bob Chill
    GEFS made a big move towards a pretty sick west based -NAO in the medium range. If that's real then we can discuss a KU as it relaxes... lol
  5. Bob Chill
    12z GEFS shifted in the right direction with a faster plains shortwave and better confluence/cold in our region. Still clearly favors a west track but a step in the right direction.
  6. Bob Chill
    Just prioritize your worries. Right now the entire thing can easily track to our west with limited frozen and lots of liquid. Let's get rid of that worry before worrying about too much of a good thing.
  7. Bob Chill
    As is right now... what the 6z EPS and 12z ICON/CMC are showing is a bread and butter MA moderate event setup. Overrunning streaming up from the TN valley into cold air is probably the most common way our area gets a 2-4/3-6 deal. Some mix/flip and others skid across to our south and quietly out to sea. For d5 leads I really like what I see.
  8. Bob Chill
    @psuhoffman Yea, I thought the 6z EPS run looked really good. CMC is coming in flatter/colder/less phased as well. When do we start talking about a miss south? lol
  9. Bob Chill
    For reference, the 6z euro control run is weaker/further south with the progression. This is as far north as it comes before jumping the coast: Here's the WAA snow totals: Will be interesting to see if 12z goes along with a weaker/further south/less phased progression. The trend is intact for now.
  10. Bob Chill
    Nice subtle shifts on the gfs with confluence, lower heights, more effective 50/50. Not going to be enough this run of course but certainly a step in the right direction.
  11. Bob Chill
    Yea, there are a lot of options. No phase would be the coldest with best chance of all snow but juice could be lacking. My total WAG is the biggest snow totals would come from a mixed event with SLP tracking over or to the west.
  12. Bob Chill
    It's the same shortwave that cuts west on 6z but it's further south and cold is better entrenched in the east. My early guess is the GFS is coming south from 6z
  13. Bob Chill
    ICON didn't phase at all. If we want a good track and all snow then we can't afford to have stream interaction. A weaker/unphased/sheared solution will cut down on QPF so there's a tradeoff. IMHO- the easiest way to win here is to have a middle of the road solution like Ralph mentioned and have the WAA piece hit us flush. If everything shifts to unphased/weak then we run the risk of little to no precip at all as everything slides underneath. Always a dance with this stuff.
  14. Bob Chill
    So far there has been a tendency to phase/amp more this season as the lead shifts from medium to short. I like seeing a run like the ICON because too much amp/phase could ruin everything for the MA. I'm totally good with a mixed event as long as the front side delivers something more than a conversation. ICON was still pretty close to a nasogood solution. If the GFS and Euro back down a little things will get pretty interesting...
  15. Bob Chill
    ICON stepped back quite a bit with the strength of next week's shortwave. Similar to the 0z CMC's version but even weaker. MUCH weaker than what the GFS is trying to do
  16. Bob Chill
    Sporadic slush missiles in Rockville.
  17. Bob Chill
    A number of 3-6" events have happened over the years like the icon is showing. Euro control was similar
  18. Bob Chill
    ICON looks like the eps members that hit us with the waa piece on the next one. It's a decent setup if things are spaced out right. A little more push from the 50/50 and this could be a big hit
  19. Bob Chill
    I was checking the CC loop thinking it might be sleet... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0C-1-12
  20. Bob Chill
    Looks like some enhanced precip rolling north through C VA. I won't flip until close to midnight at the earliest but the northern crew may get into some respectable rates in an hour or so
  21. Bob Chill
    Yea, you could feel it in the first half with turnovers and sloppy offense. PSU is a good team. It's not like they weren't going to lose a game so it's good in some ways to get a loss and see how it feels.
  22. Bob Chill
    A little ahead of schedule. This is good.
  23. Bob Chill
    Mesos say Winchester should start flipping around 10-11pm. Should be a good guage on model accuracy here shortly
  24. Bob Chill
    Yea, it's pretty massive but it also doesn't start forming until d8+. GEFS has some support for the idea but not enough to favor the idea.
  25. Bob Chill
    For 10-12 days out, this is a pretty good storm signal. Some legit coastal nukes mixed in with the rainers.
×
×
  • Create New...