Bob Chill

We need more teknal posts like this. Spot on

Trough axis right off the west coast and steady stream of shortwaves digging will do some damage. The EPS has been dead set on the idea for at least 8 runs in a row. It's not a long term disaster and far from abnormal. Just no fun and will take some time to recover if it happens.

The problem is bigger than that. The GFS/GEFS kept insisting that the TPV would drop down and create confluence/cold source while the Euro/EPS has been showing the TPV getting squished like a marshmallow and pushed west while mid latitude ridging spikes in the east. For now, the euro/EPS idea looks favored. And if it's right then we're going to spend at least a week waiting for cold to build again.

The EPS has been showing a crappy mid latitude pattern leading into Christmas for many days in a row. With the crazy gfs runs it's easy to ignore it but it kept nagging me and I've been expecting some frustration during the period.

The upper level pattern in the high latitudes is shifting the wrong direction on the gfs. If the 12z GFS brings that shortwave through here it's going to be rain. There's nothing to lock in any cold and mid latitude ridging will bring in the warmth.

All we can do is wait and see if the warm front gets here fast enough before the cold runs away. It's still a viable minor event. The runs that count will be over the weekend as the leaf of WAA is better modeled. Down the line I'm not too enthused honestly. I see nothing to get excited about over the next 2 weeks. Not super hostile or a true shutout but overall (imo only) things don't look good and my expectations are very low.

I remember that too. Posting the gfs sim satellite panels. Lol. That winter sucked in general.

Too much blocking. Happens all the time

Yep... there are others but lets not go down memory lane from hell. Thing is, we don't get many big beautiful coastals. We can go years in between. And to have all the pieces in place only to get rain is such a waste. I'm not getting any younger and there's only so many more chances left in my life. Only 2 storms have gotten me really bad thoughp. Boxing day 2010 and March 2013. The march bust was on the heels of a horrible multi year stretch. That was high level torture of epic proportions

I'm surprised how few hits there are on the 18z gefs considering the mean track. Too many are rain for my liking. I don't mind rain in winter because i get lots of it... but damn do I hate a good setup with blocking, good track, etc and get rain anyways...

Dude, we've been saying this for years... weather is suurius biznizzle Obligatory on topic post to set a good example: Medium range trend has been weaken confluence and move everything north. This one is ours. Even if rain like unhappy hour showed

You need to brush up on your pattern skills. We've been in a strong +AO regime since the end of Nov. The dusting was lucky and we should be thankful for it.

About 20 miles to the SW of your hood. Think it's possible that could shift north over the next 4 days?

That's all this event is. Scoring on the leading warm front before rain. Euro/GFS/CMC/ICON all close enough to keep it interesting but the potential isn't very exciting. I'm not nearly as interested in it as I was 2-3 days ago. 2 things that have consistently trended poorly as leads shorten are depth of cold and confluence. When this event first showed up there was a strong CAD signal in front of it. That's basically completely evaporated. Track of shortwaves has consistently shifted north during the same time frame as well.

Very nino-like this year. The entire seasonal progression since early Nov reminds me of a mod nino. If the current blocking episode is a pre-cursor to the rest of winter then we're going to get a couple decent events by default. It's entirely possible that the current blocking episode on tap has longer term implications. Very common for a strong -AO to last 30-60 days. We haven't had one hit in December for 10 years so it seems like it's impossible but the atmosphere never gives a crap about the past.

Yea, AO/NAO looks good through the end of the GEFS. Pac is messy d10+ but overall there is no sign of a disaster. Seeing the EPO ridge building is really nice. Would keep any pac flood situation short lived.

Would you expect anything different 10 days out on an operational model? Pick any random time stamp d10+ on Tropical Tidbits and click "previous run" at least 10 times. It will always be that way.

I'm not down on the longer range at all. Quite the opposite. But I do think (just like you said) it will take time for seasonal shifts to make it less difficult to snow in these parts. I'm not feeling too good about prospects before Christmas though and I do think we're going to end up in a shutout pattern down the line 10 days or so. Probably short lived but long enough to be annoying. That's just my gut feeling. I can see the "way out" of a shutout just like you outlined. And that could certainly happen. I can't shake the strong gut feeling that the final "bad pac trough" digs deep and scours NA followed by a -EPO spike and cold factory starts again which would mean things may look really good sometime between Christmas and New Years. Just a total WAG but that's what I think will happen right now.

Being honest with what I'm seeing... Ens are starting to converge on AN temps leading into and on Christmas. Still a lot of time for changes and not spiking any footballs but the pattern progression makes sense and imho it's becoming more likely as the days go by.

Seriously... just a little similar right?

Right or wrong, this panel is right out of the 09-10 playbook. Especially the first Feb storm...

Yea it did. Went even further NW.

@psuhoffman I don't disagree with your take on the bigger picture through the second half of the month. Unfortunately, I'm expecting some version of a pac flood in the conus during the week before Christmas. The EPS has been dead set on the idea for many runs in a row. GEFS shows how it can be avoided but I'm not thinking we'll be so lucky. For that reason alone, I'm rooting for snow of any way, shape, or form before a shutout period.

Gotta love the track tho. Nearly perfect. Just a touch more blocking and we're getting our first warning level event of the year. Weenie handbook says the front end thump will be juicier and quicker than shown. Best of all... only 5 days away...