Bob Chill

Gefs general idea is a decent invasion of arctic air. The spread shows all outcomes with the cold centered westerer and easterer.

It's never a lock of course but the next 10 days don't look good and there's universal agreement. The eps first picked up on the pac flood and never wavered and now everything agrees so there's well above normal confidence imho. The way out is much muddier and nothing is a lock there at all. At least we're seeing signs of improvement now.

Lol. Cashing top end with all the marginal mixy storms will more than make up for it. I prefer active and # of events over jacking the rare big ones. I'll fit in just fine in your slice of the region.

Some decent trends in the long range. Epo ridge gaining traction and now both the eps and gefs are trending towards lower heights in the east and 50/50 region. If the northern stream starts trying to dig down into eastern canada it could potentially offset the terrible pacific. There are hints of colder weather sliding through while the san diego troughs keep digging. This is a pretty good mean h5 panel. If it's right our chances for winter wx are avg or even above avg. If we can see the way out and it holds in time it will make the next 10-15 days much more bearable.

Yea, feels great. Need to get the grads off my payroll asap. The grad from the spring isn't trying hard enough and the one today immediately starts full time as a director for a cheer/acrobat facility. She got her degree in Kinesiology so it all makes sense. Once I get my kids off the payroll I can semi retire. Counting the days man... some people dread empty nest and others can't wait for the freedom. I'll kick them all out if they take too long doing it themsevles.

Yea, 40 miles from my house and 50% more snowfall. I avg around 22" and Parrs area in general is 36+ avg

Feeling pretty good. Second kid graduated from UMD tonight. Two down and 2 to go. Once the second set is in college it's time to sell the house in Rockville and move to Parrs ridge (not joking). Can't wait to post storm obs. Lol

Road spray from the brine is salting the air and dropping the freezing point into the upper 20s.

Vegas is setting the over/under on Christmas @ 60. Place your bets.

12/4 T 12/11 0.2" 12/16 1.1” Total: 1.3”

I'm not sure there's a path to frozen even if it does climb the coast. Without some sort of northern stream interaction the mid levels are scorching all the way to Canada.

@psuhoffman @C.A.P.E. CFS weeklies have consistently improved for Jan. It's an interesting pattern and it fits what we're seeing on the ens late in their runs. The EPO ridge axis isn't optimal as it's a bit too far west but the Atl looks to offset some of that. Very gradient like pattern showing up and not that far away. Precip anomaly plots imply normal to above normal QPF from weeks 3-6 Weeks 3-4 look workable and the weekly trend is colder as you go out in time so weeks 5-6 are better than these:

Getting the ridge above the san diego trough is step #1. IMO- step 2 is rolling the trough in the west forward while the TPV presses down from above and we're right back into some semblance of a pattern that can produce. We can work with a trough in the west as long as it's not dropping down from the GoA hosing the continent in the process. D10 GEFS implies the end of the pac hosing and the beginning of the cold factory getting back to work. Getting out of what we're seeing over the next 10 days is a multi step process. It won't go from epic disaster to ripe in a blink.

Fairly big shift on the GEFS building the EPO ridge by d10. Would imply the potential "flip" may happen sooner rather than later.

That's actually showing on the ensembles as well. There's a camp that pushes a back door front through our area right around Christmas. Certainly possible but would be nothing more than an intermission between some pretty mild Dec wx.

It's a process. Looks like at least 2 large scale intrusions of maritime air between now and the end of the month. GFS shows how fast things can turn around. D10 looks awful with temps but by d16 there's expansive cold in our source region. I'm not hunting a big dog or even a small dog... I'm hunting the way out of the "snow? hell no!" pattern.

FWIW- 12z gfs is showing a version of what the ens are trending towards irt the EPO ridge and TPV moving over Hudson. This is not something to get all excited about but it's the fastest way out of the mess so encouraging in that regard

Time sensitive but oh man what a nice scene on top of A basin...

Chihauhau! Been all over above Montezuma area. Cadillac chute is one of the biggest descents in Summit Co. All day affair tho... Easy access via snowshoes or trekking gear on an old mining road. Nothing dangerous on the way up. Just stay out of the steep areas. Peru creek is extremely peaceful without leg/heart killing inclines. Have a blast dude. Brings back memories.

Yea, recent storm cycle was quite large for Dec. Resorts are killing it early season. Always nice to see even when my yard is mud and slush. Enjoy!

No matter how you slice and dice it... current trends are towards a look that is magnitudes better than the next 10 days. Is it perfect? Far from it but you gotta start somewhere

First clean inch of the year @ 1.1". No complaints from me

Imo- you and winterwxluvr have a legit shot at 3". If I get an inch or more I'll be pretty happy. I'm down to 35 and consistent with hrrr temps. Hrrr doesn't get me down to freezing until 3am or so. If I get below freezing by say midnight then expectations change.

If temps bust low in the wee hours the extent of sleet and zr will increase at lot. Many areas south of I70 including nova are progged for 33-35 temps in the AM. Get those down to freezing and winter wx can hold on longer.

The epo ridge is our fastest way out of the crappy period coming up. We can work with the repeating "san diego trough" if we can get some cold to build in nw canada. The atl looks workable start to finish on all guidance. We don't need a perfect pac but it no doubt needs to improve considerably before we start getting chances again. A ridge somewhere/anywhere north of say...San Fran would work. Split flow and a source of even just normal continental air is workable. Especially late Dec through mid Feb.