Bob Chill

Getting the ridge above the san diego trough is step #1. IMO- step 2 is rolling the trough in the west forward while the TPV presses down from above and we're right back into some semblance of a pattern that can produce. We can work with a trough in the west as long as it's not dropping down from the GoA hosing the continent in the process. D10 GEFS implies the end of the pac hosing and the beginning of the cold factory getting back to work. Getting out of what we're seeing over the next 10 days is a multi step process. It won't go from epic disaster to ripe in a blink.

Fairly big shift on the GEFS building the EPO ridge by d10. Would imply the potential "flip" may happen sooner rather than later.

That's actually showing on the ensembles as well. There's a camp that pushes a back door front through our area right around Christmas. Certainly possible but would be nothing more than an intermission between some pretty mild Dec wx.

It's a process. Looks like at least 2 large scale intrusions of maritime air between now and the end of the month. GFS shows how fast things can turn around. D10 looks awful with temps but by d16 there's expansive cold in our source region. I'm not hunting a big dog or even a small dog... I'm hunting the way out of the "snow? hell no!" pattern.

FWIW- 12z gfs is showing a version of what the ens are trending towards irt the EPO ridge and TPV moving over Hudson. This is not something to get all excited about but it's the fastest way out of the mess so encouraging in that regard

Time sensitive but oh man what a nice scene on top of A basin...

Chihauhau! Been all over above Montezuma area. Cadillac chute is one of the biggest descents in Summit Co. All day affair tho... Easy access via snowshoes or trekking gear on an old mining road. Nothing dangerous on the way up. Just stay out of the steep areas. Peru creek is extremely peaceful without leg/heart killing inclines. Have a blast dude. Brings back memories.

Yea, recent storm cycle was quite large for Dec. Resorts are killing it early season. Always nice to see even when my yard is mud and slush. Enjoy!

No matter how you slice and dice it... current trends are towards a look that is magnitudes better than the next 10 days. Is it perfect? Far from it but you gotta start somewhere

First clean inch of the year @ 1.1". No complaints from me

Imo- you and winterwxluvr have a legit shot at 3". If I get an inch or more I'll be pretty happy. I'm down to 35 and consistent with hrrr temps. Hrrr doesn't get me down to freezing until 3am or so. If I get below freezing by say midnight then expectations change.

If temps bust low in the wee hours the extent of sleet and zr will increase at lot. Many areas south of I70 including nova are progged for 33-35 temps in the AM. Get those down to freezing and winter wx can hold on longer.

The epo ridge is our fastest way out of the crappy period coming up. We can work with the repeating "san diego trough" if we can get some cold to build in nw canada. The atl looks workable start to finish on all guidance. We don't need a perfect pac but it no doubt needs to improve considerably before we start getting chances again. A ridge somewhere/anywhere north of say...San Fran would work. Split flow and a source of even just normal continental air is workable. Especially late Dec through mid Feb.

Me too. He's been a miserable F all day. And he's a skins fan who picked them to cover in my pool. Epitome of the weekly bad beats clip.

Starting to look like the only way we aren't at least warmish on Christmas is if it rains. Lol. Maybe a backdoor front pushes down. I don't get bummed when winter holidays are warm as long as I can see winter returning not too far down the road. Maybe we're tracking a legit event come Christmas.

EPS says maybe there is hope that things improve before new years. Maybe today marks the valley of lowest lows for the season.

Ok, I found some crumbs out in the distance that could imply the cold factory may start building before the end of Dec. GEPS likes the idea of better height patterns in the epo region: EPS made a pretty big run over run jump towards the same idea. Not a great look overall but moving in the direction of decent at least. Eta: Adding one more panel. This plot shows the run over run height differential from 0z. If you read between the lines you could say the eps is shifting towards a -epo/-nao + 50/50 low.

I (everyone) always want to be right when predicting wx but I also very much want to bust badly. Everyone can make fun of me as they shovel their driveways.

It's a fluky/flawed setup in general so you can point a finger at everything. These are those types of events that you thank your lucky stars when they work out because they technically shouldn't. And the vast majority don't. I never felt this had much of a chance and that's why I barely posted about it.

There's a literal upper level wall keeping the streams separate. Zero chance of helpful ns phasing.

Oh, I'm def not pooping on the whole season. I generally only look at a couple weeks out tops. Pattern could get crazy stupid good in early Jan. Persistant shutout periods are a peeve of mine. Prob #1 peeve because it ruins all the fun of what I focus on. Tracking a pattern change out of a shutout that's 2 weeks or more way blows. I'll become Deb Chill if it continues into Jan...

Ens means are very smooth way out in time so you can't just look at the height isobars by themselves and interpret that as sensible wx. Think about the mechanics/jet alignment of the ens mean panel. Pac jet is blasting in underneath the trough in the west. That's really far south and just pumping maritime air right into the conus. Here's a sensible wx version of what the d16 gefs panel is showing. Basically the gefs is implying that we get a repeat and/or continuation of this setup... ugh

Yea, all the atl will do is trim down how warm the pattern could potentially be. The wildcard is the tpv. The atl can't fight a jet alignment like that by itself. If the tpv migrates underneath a -nao we are back in business. Total unreliable fantasy range but the 12z gfs op is moving that way. We can only hope....

I've had them raised... As soon as I saw an extension in time with troughs digging into san diego I figured we're in some trouble. When it first showed up it appeared transient and everyone dismissed it. Not looking so transient anymore unfortunately.

Gefs and Eps look basically the same at the end of Dec. This is a pretty ugly panel. Would imply a continuation into Jan.