Bob Chill

My biz partner is a master at gaming any system. He's been prodding me to cut cable for a year. You game the internet system by buying your own xfinity and verizon compatible equipment then switch back and forth every 12-24 months. I had Fios for 17 years and Verizon had zero interest in giving me any kind of deal to stay so I switched to Xfinity with 600mbs speed for $70/mo for 24 months. Sometime between month 12-24 I'll switch back to Fios under a new customer promotion and keep doing it indefinitely. Live TV streaming competition will keep getting more fierce so prices should hold or decrease. Internet costs are already on the decline (generally speaking).

I finally got around to cutting the cord a few months ago and get rid of cable. I wish I did this the day youtube tv came out. Between that and my kids friends' logins for hulu and netflix I got everything I need and more. Saving $1,200/yr and that includes a much faster net speed. If anyone is on the fence just do it.

Reading between the lines and taking excessive liberties in my interpretation... it looks like pac shortwaves do keep digging to san diego but flow gets split with weak ridging above it. This allows the NS to fight back a little instead of an unmitigated powerwashing of the mid levels basically all the way to Canada. I just want it to snow. Big dogs are great but rare AF. Let's just have flow that supports any sized event that includes frozen precip. It's possible we get back to that this month if the atl really asserts itself. It's a process and patience is required. My patience meter goes way up when I see a way out that doesn't keep getting kicked down the road. Maybe today is the anchor where the end holds in time and gets closer every day.

If this is where we end up it will make the Pac hosing much less bothersome. Pretty much a nino look. Not cold but prob just cold enough. Split flow and active stj with a half decent atlantic. Eps and gefs are both similar in how they "carve out" the atlantic. Starts happening in about a week so we have something to watch at a reasonable lead.

Keep his location (NJ) in mind. I agree that things may make a move for the better sometime between xmas and nye but the way it gets better is backdoor type cold fronts helped by the atlantic. It's absolutely possible the available cold presses through our region but the NE is def in a better spot to have things line up. If we can get out of a shutout pattern before the end of Dec I'll be pretty happy. At least we can track fantasy fails to kill time

Someone is going to have to jar my memory because I can't remember what event but in the not too distant past we had a similar blocking ridge in Quebec with a strong +AO. It's on the tip of my brain but the cobwebs are holding me back...

Dude, what a save... This is like the ONLY way to get a workable pattern going considering all large scale features. This type of pattern won't work early in the season but by late Dec it's possible for temps to cooperate. ETA: don't confuse this with a good pattern because it isn't. But it's just outside of shutout parameters. lol

There's no SE ridge so there are ways for things to accidentally work out in an otherwise nasogood peroid. Verbatim the 12z euro is a rainstorm beyond d10 but there is a very strong surface HP nosing down from the ridge in Canada. Get a little tighter spacing between shortwaves and this general pressure pattern could supply CAD.

The big ridge near hudson/quebec can act like a block so even with the hostility going on in all directions the storm track could have some sort of mechanism that suppresses it. Euro has the best version: The only reason the GEFS looked ok for a time was a cluster of members dropping the TPV down into SE canada. EPS never wavered with the TPV migrating westward near the pole. Now that the GEFS agrees the encouraging signs have vanished. It's possible that the entire regime abruptly flips on guidance down the line but I've conceded the rest of the month and have no reason to be optimistic into early Jan other than blind hope. Saying that models can't be trusted d10-15 isn't a reason for hope. Models seem to have nailed the upcoming hostile period way out in time and they all agree with the general hemispheric pattern through the end of Dec. Sometimes you can trust long range guidance and imho this is one of those times.

So we should lock the long range thread and reopen it when it might snow within 7-10 days?

12z did look good but the it had no support with the eps and was on its own. Now they both look the same. EPS picked up on the warmup near christmas from 15 days out and has never once wavered and unless models completely blow the current mid range guidance the eps did an excellent job from 15 days out. That pretty good even even though we hate what it looks like.

I'm absolutely not pooping on the whole season. I know you already know that. Just don't want my post taken out of context that I think we're seasonally F'd. We've had a better Atlantic so far than any year since 2010 so that's a good start. I don't mind the Pac messing things up because it's normal for the pac flow to oscillate between good and bad all year. What the eps and now gefs show is a crappy altantic and pacific simultaneously. Can't work with that as we need one or the other at a minimum. I don't like where the tpv is now on the gefs/eps though. If we can't have the atl working for us then we at least need the tpv to play traffic cop in eastern Canada. Gefs was fairly gung ho on that until the 18z run today. There's a ton of time for things to work back in our favor but right now the end of the gefs and eps runs aren't encouraging. That general setup is at least another week away from anything good. I like tracking storms (even if fantasy range) far more than I like tracking pattern changes 2-3 weeks down the road. Lol

When the pac onslaught first started showing up my first thought (other than uh oh) was it might last longer than our nerves can handle. And unfortunately as it stands right now... my hunch may end up being right. Ens agree that some sort of front/continental airmass will roll through between Christmas and New Years so I doubt we straight torch for the last 10 days of the month. Snow prospects look grim though and that's the primary reason we participate is this stupid hobby. Lol

Dammit! 18z gefs looks just like the EPS now. If this is where we end up in 2 weeks I'm taking a break.

I'm not sure I can agree that there isn't clarity beyond Tues right now. Once the cold shot rolls through we're in the grips of a pretty rough shutout pattern and it isn't going away until sometime after Christmas. Ops and ens are locked in pretty much through d10. Beyond that we gotta put all our chips on the gefs. I can honestly say that right now (imho only) the chances for snowfall in our area before Dec 30th are near zero. How long that continues will be picked apart daily. Lol. Let's just hope we can get back to something stable/workable sometime during the first week of 2020.

EPS remains worlds apart from the GEFS irt the TPV dropping down into the HB area. Honestly, the d15 mean h5 panel on the EPS pretty much sucks so I'll ignore it and hug the GEFS

Yea, there's a lot of areas we're interested in. Basically draw a line from Union Bridge > Westminster > Monkton and everywhere north of those towns up to the PA line is the area we're thinking. Might do a full rehab on a beat up old place if the math works. A minimum of 6 years away so plenty of time to figure it out.

One unfortunate thing both the EPS and GEFS agree on right now is there is little if any chance for snowfall through the end of the month. Not surprising given where we are going over the next 10 days.

I don't disagree with the numerical data but visually it's anything but a notable Nino. PDO keeps improving though...

Yea, March 13 may get the nod. Being on the heels of an epic snow drought and the huge lead up to the event had us all hooked deep. I remember staying up late with the wife and walking around outside around 1am with WAA snows coming down and the ground covered. Radar looked amazing so I went to bed expecting to wake up to a big winter scene. Well... that didn't exactly happen. The post mortem was interesting. The Euro was the only model with the SE jog of SLP. That jog + the intensifying upper level low stole all the goods from us as the NW Ric burbs got destroyed. The daytime was even more depressing. Warm temps, crappy rates, and no hope to recover.

I've said this multiple times over the years but there have been only 2 storms that had a strong effect on me emotionally... and not in a good way... Boxing day 2010 and March 2013. I'm not sure which one was worse as they both had their own unique dagger in the heart.

Yea man! That's a GREAT link. No doubt the best insight into the member suite I've ever seen.

@griteater linked me up to the full member suite. Check out all 20 GEFS members. 17 are either a winter pattern overhead or very close to one... Either the GEFS is off on a wild tangent or it's going to score the coup on this.

9 years ago we were only 8 days away from one of the most gut wrenching weenie stomping busts of any Dec since I've been alive

Yea, pretty big war setting up. I'm not just being a weenie by saying this but I do believe the GEFS might have it right. There's increasing agreement with a TPV displacement SE into the hudson/quebec area. Check out the member spread on the 6z gefs.... a whole lot of solutions that would imply sig cold overhead or nearby. Looks pretty damn good right and not just some random solutions. Supports the current CFS weekly & monthly guidance. Pretty good consensus here and the evolution makes complete sense. Maybe it's too fast but imho I believe we're heading in this direction in early Jan. If the GEFS has the timing right then the EPS will start caving here shortly. ETA: here's the current CFS week 3 mean. Looks just like many of the solutions in the 6z gefs suite. CFS says the pattern is here to stay for all of Jan. It's not perfect or a classic big storm pattern but it's no doubt very workable and should provide chances.