Bob Chill

I prefer Climax gradients. They're more fun and I live just north of it lol

Gotta chain up before the grade to Mt PSU or get a ticket bro

Once we get into Jan, thumps to dryslot/west track work here (and waaay down here hi!) without a -30 airmass needed in advance lol. While not ideal, who cares because ideal works less than a third of the time anyway. Even that might be a stretch too lolol. Imo only, if ensembles are right....., early Jan is a heater pattern for the MA. Doesn't mean big storm but small stuff in succession is the next best thing

I like everything I see right now but no cold and no snow (for nearly 3 years lol) makes bobchill go something something.... Imo- as depicted, it's not a dry pattern and sets up the gulf/TN Valley connection. Broad bowl shape trough with blocking. Has the 8:30am-2:30pm trajectory look to me. I'm not sure further north than say Philly should like this setup except for cold. Not a big storm look up north and 3-6" only makes SNE'ers angry, apparently lolol. It's also not a nina pattern. There has been minimal classic Nina stuff at all so far imo other than NS activity. NH flow hasn't followed the rules and continues to look like a rebel. Current ens guidance looks like a nino lol

Crossed my mind. The last minute ticket game is fun. Last game I went to was in a Corp box. I think Amgen. Some guy got 4 tickets for free at work and didn't want to pay taxes on the gift so he sold them for $300. There was a fully stocked bar/kitchen lol. Corp execs did show up but they didn't give a crap about why we were there. It was a blast. Never forget it. Wiz beat Brooklyn to cap it off lol

Surface temps aside, that height pattern in Canada that all ens are showing down the line is prob a shutout pattern. At least for me down here. The quicker we see the other side of that come into focus the better. On another note, I'll be in Bethesda for Xmas. Not all that jazzzed about returning to the fray but at least I know the local customs and my way around lol

Just spitballin but nino hangover is making things muddy imo. We need to work through the tug of war before worrying much beyond that. I personally expected Dec to provide few chances for snow. Really hard here for early season northern stream stuff in any enso setup. That said, we've had the ingredients flying around already and guidance says that isn't changing yet. Get enough chances and you can stumble drunk into something if you try hard enough lol. Imho, Jan will feature a "hammer period" with cold and snow but it will primarily be NS driven (stating obvious) so my gut says a chaotic take what you can get versus tracking an actual big storm pattern. So far things have been moving along pretty close to what I was thinking in the fall.

Sup

In a nina or cold neutral, you kinda have to root for a +tnh pattern in general unless a real blocky winter pattern shows up. That's why I've been aligned with the idea since fall. It's not just temps, it's prob the best way this season to get anything in the NS to track under us or at least approach from the south. 95-96 is not walkin in the door imho so the next best way to keep the SE ridge or any semblance of such out of our faces is getting it smashed down by a progressive -epo/+tnh longwave pattern. In some ways, it's a best case scenario in a winter that is highly unlikely to overperform. I don't think anyone is expecting anything close to a big winter. We just want to drink a little sweet lemonade instead of other yellow beverages that keep getting served lol

This is the type of +tnh we need in Dec. Axis is broad. Has more of a bowl shape instead of a vase. I don't like vertical patterns much but CAPE has been on a heater with those later in the season lol. I say this often but the 8:30-2:30 trajectory with energy tracking thru the TN valley is a prime setup for us at any point in winter. Especially early. All this said, I hope the cfs is right for Jan.... 2014 vibes

Mixed enso signals are unsurprising. At least to me. Prob persist thru first half of met winter if I had to guess. The +tnh general idea is what I was hoping to see when I engaged in the fall. Doesn't mean easy snow lol but it does mean that cold air intrusions can support snow if everything else cooperates. Early season is pretty tuff tho. Carving target practice is already small strike zone at any point in winter. Cold chasing precip or trailing waves is more of a JFM thing in the closer burbs. If I see anything that looks like it could set up something more flush I'll jump in. Doesnt have to be fancy. Just need mids to be feeding from the north as precip approaches. In Dec, if the cold isn't feeding when it's precipitating, it gets really hard for lower/easter elevations to do much.

Seems like Dec is trying to show its hand but early season is always volatile. If the warm can truly gets kicked, confidence increases. So how does it snow? Probably something like the early Dec 2013 storm. A good fresh cold blast and a quick follower. Idk about the next 10 days. It could line up like that but we prob need a deeper carve in advance.

It was a welcome surprise. I paid no mind b4 I left. Gotta run back to VA in an hour. Maybe I'll get 2 events in one day

Good grief. We're already talking strat warming? Lol. Considering our history of actual strat warming events over the last 10-15 years.... it's probably the last thing we want. I thought it was an unwritten rule that SSW talk is reserved for the final flailing gasp of air before we drown in a hopeless dumpster fire of winterless wonderlands Jokes aside. Watch the AO. A Dec avg below -1.0 is probably the clearest long range indicator we have of having a winter that...um...well... is actually a winter. Below -1.2 is nearly a lock that some acceptable snow and cold snow will make an appearance during JFM

Had to run to Johnson City TN this morning. Sounds far but only 210 miles from where I live. Snowed off and on for the last 90 miles. Some places had over an inch. Pic is near Mt Rodgers on I81. Accidental chases are the best lol