Bob Chill

Took the dog out for a long evening walk and man it was nice. Winter appeal everywhere and really got me in the mood for Christmas. Hope it looks just like this

I've always thought that. It was just incredibly bad luck. The WAA piece was mature but it completely fizzled to nothing on the transfer. Usually when it's mature like that, the metros get some ok accum snow before the skip over and pounding NE. Boxing day was some sort of payback for 09-10 lol

That specific storm isn't showing up for now but it was a wintry month just with some bad breaks in the MA. Interestingly, Dec 1995, 2010, and 2013 are all showing up in the mix.

Dec 2010 has been showing up on the analogs last few days. I was going to post about it except there was a certain storm near a certain holiday that certain people spent lots of money on ptsd treatment and drugs afterwords.... but here we are... bring it. My new yard enjoyed that month.

Train tracks, atmospheric memory, butts and horseshoes, and stuff like that.

12/2: T .003" zr and 5-6 sleet pellets 12/5: 3.0

Final total 3". Wintry scene out there. Skunk ratter off the table.

Still snowing but I don't think it will accum much additional. Lucky event down here for this early in the season. I'm building a large retaining wall and I'm pretty beat up from the last 2 days. A snow day is therapeutic for reals lol

Looks awesome! I got about 3" here. Very scenic with it sticking to everything. Not a high ratio event. Was a bit too warm when it started.

Nope, there is no advantage in any enso other than dumb luck. Small storms have small stripes and I'm getting lucky. No other factors to consider.

I don't have a lot of friends today except for my bestie... 12z gfs

I got 11" last year and it was the best of the 3 since we bought property here. 2 previous were basically shutouts. Sounds awesome right? Lol

Lol. Usually keep a grapple on the front of my tractor but I switched it to the bucket today... to move gravel...but you never know lol. Could bomb off the coast and drop a foot. I'm sticking to gut call of 1-2" but would gladly accept the 18z gfs or 12z low res nam haha

I'm not feelin a nam like solution with qpf but I do like all guidance running a measurable stripe through my region. Pretty sold on the 1-2" potential. Above that is possible but light events are what they are. H5 is pretty flat. 100% stoked that it's a daylight event with a start around sunrise.

Over the last 10-12 years we've had a lot of a zippy busy northern stream action when we're in the game. Lots of mid range flip flops and phantoms. The good thing is the phantoms break both ways and what looks like a nothingburger at d5+ can become a somethingburger at d4- lol. Tracking can be frustrating because any second or 3rd or 4th or whatever shortwave in line is never locked in. I no longer get deeply involved or overthink in patterns like this until a potential event is first in line. Otherwise it's just an exercise in chasing tails and kicking rabbits