Bob Chill

Exactly. All too often there are 2 modes of thinking here... wall to wall good or door to door turd lol. Through history the vast majority of our winters fall in between. A general mix of good periods and blind shitting. Simply guessing an in between winter is the highest odds and the most common outcome. This winter sure feels like an in-betweener to me

I don't follow anyone about long range stuff and usually stick to my own thoughts but wasn't Webb on the cold/blocking train just a few weeks ago? When all guidance was unified in the general idea? Of course it didn't work out and here we are but wouldn't it be the same mistake to jump all in on what lr guidance is unified on now? Long range weather is one fickle beast. If it was easy to predict beyond a couple weeks we could all just be energy traders and retire in a couple years. But it doesn't work like that. Not even close really. I never thought this would be some kind of awesome snowy winter but to marry the idea that it's "mostly over" already is a blunder imho. Analogs are nearly unified that the way out of the current persistence is a cold and/or stormy period in the east. It makes sense to me as the winter see-saw has been part of the personality already and likely to continue (imho only). I personally don't agree that things are dire and a persistent hostile snow pattern is here to stay. If anything, I expect a 2 week period in Jan to be pretty good for chances. Luck and timing hold the cards for production but my money is on real winter returning for a decent period in Jan. Guidance is currently starting to pick up on the idea late in the first week of Jan. I'm starting to expect that trend to continue. Wait and see for now.

Looks like ens are filling in with 2 camps now. The mean shows no major shift with large scale features but under the hood looks more promising. Fairly deep (semi stable?) trough diving down and height rises along the west coast. Could be the first sign of a way out of the current doh! pattern lol. Ops are obviously hinting at the idea with the 6z gfs going straight nuts lol

Pretty simple thoughts based on 2 things that my intuition keeps bringing up. 1) I expected blocking to be on the friendly vs hostile side and 2) we're over due for a decent coastal that gets everyone. Not a giant storm as they are pretty rare. Just a decent coastal that has a pretty uniform 1"+ of qpf and drops 8-12" across all 3 airports. I also don't think this nina is all that strong nor will it influence the winter door to door. Both of my snowfalls had a southern connection to precip already. Northern stream action is the bulk of our snowfalls and storm chances in every enso phase. Jan 2016 came onshore in the pac nw. The main shortwave was northern stream. But it tapped the southern stream when it mattered and went nuts. People get too hung up on northern stream being anti snow. It's only anti snow when the gulf or Southern stream is closed for business. So far this year, gulf moisture tap has been decent. I don't see why that won't continue at times.

The mechanism to build continental cold is alive and well. We don't need cross polar flow or arctic express stuff for snowfall. All we need is Canada to produce high pressure in the lee of the rockies. Where we get into serious trouble is when the trop PV is pushed over on the other side of the pole and Canada is flooded with Pac maritime air. Which has happened multiple times in the last handful of years. Right now the only serious problem is a persistent trough in the PacNW pumping up heights/ridging downstream in the conus. This bottles up cold high pressure to the north and storm track well to our NW. It's a crap pattern for snowfall here but it's also only one roll forward or retro move away from things being conducive for cold and/or snow possibilities becoming less hostile. For the time being it's a sit on your hands period and wait and see. It's not a multi step process to be back in the game. It's really just one step.

Analogs have been pretty consistent showing periods leading to cold and/or stormy stretches. Jan 2022, 2009, 2000, 2011 etc. Right now boxing day is showing up lol but I'm pretty sure that's only because of the NAO and not a legit storm threat inside of 2 weeks. I agree about the dagger -pna. The persistence and duration is frustrating but it's not unusual/uncommon and it's also not a sign of extended disaster. The winter see saw in that region happens more often than not and when it flips it can be abrupt. Not the same thing as a zonal pac jet destroying hopes and dreams for months. I was never bullish on snowfall this winter but I continue to expect enough action to keep this winter out of the turd category. A single lucky storm can tip those scales as well. Can't rule that out for a couple months.

Been quietly thinking the same thing. Taking my adult kids to my old stompin grounds in Summit Co, CO Jan 8th-15th. They had an abysmal start this year. I have some friends still living there and they said I used my snow shovel before them lol. They said it's the worst start ever and they've lived there since the mid 90s. Thankfully that's changing quickly.

It happened a lot last year too iirc. It wasn't a high snowfall winter but last winter was certainly more old school flavor than the last 15+ years. 2013-15 was an extreme/unusual pattern. Last year was different in that respect. Intuition has been prodding me last couple years that the decadal or whatever it is blocking cycle was flipping and this year is basically confirming it (for now at least). Doesn't mean every winter will be blocky but it does imply that 8 out of 10 or 10 out of 13 will be blocking friendly based on history. We can worry about that later after the NAO does some magic this year haha

Euro AI is rain to snow. Block and confluence flexing and forcing. I don't have high hopes for anything until the pac trough backs off but to get something to work we need a gnarly block and all models are showing something to that effect.

British Columbia with the mic drop lol

Ops have most definitely led the way picking up on flips at times but it's pretty logical. Beyond 5 days, ops are about as accurate as a single ensemble member. They basically are a single ensemble member. There are times when ops consistently diverge from the mean long range pattern and its the first sign of a change. Works both ways though. Sometimes ops consistently diverge from the mean at long range only to cave in that direction (for better or worse lol). That said, it always grabs my attention when ops keep spitting out a cold pattern in the lr when ensembles are grim. It can be the first sign of a flip that isn't showing on the means. You can take it a step further and sort through individual ensembles and see how big the camp is that agrees with the op and see if that camp starts growing over time. Gives more confidence to the idea. Make sense?

Persistent trough in the goa/pacnw is a bit of a dagger here without real help from the AO. Cold fronts can sweep thru the east but storms will almost certainly track far NW of us. Hopefully it retros and the pna rises within 2 weeks or the blocking hammer drops down. Patience for now....

Down to 13 now. It's been a heck of a winter run since Dec 1st. Nice to know we can still get legit fast starts. Dec has been a punt month for years lately

I don't trust the CFS all that much but it looks good for Feb. -EPO, +PNA, -AO, and a sprinkle of -NAO. Active southern stream/split flow....

19 and still plenty of wind but managed to see 2 meteors in 10 mins. Hopefully wind lays down by 10pm or so. Crystal clear night for watching the geminids