Picard
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Everything posted by Picard
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What model do you think performed best? It looked to me like the NAM picked up on the sharp cutoffs to the west and the 10" I have here are maybe a bit over what it's last couple of runs showed for western NJ, but definitely within the range.
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Try resizing them on your phone before uploading. Android makes it pretty simple to do, and you can usually get them under 1 MB.
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Measured 9 3/4" at 7:45 AM, but it's a little hard to measure. I had 4 3/4" at about 10:00 pm last night, so only received about 5" overnight. Currently lighter snow and 27. Congrats to the folks out east and down the shore!
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2 3/4" new accumulation. 1" per hour rates.
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there is reason to be a bit skeptical of the big totals west of 287. Especially because a couple models seem to have ticked east with the heaviest earlier today, and unless we get big time banding out here, 20+ is just a dream. I'm still thinking high single digit/low double digit totals are within reach.
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Light to Moderate snows in Sparta, starting to stick everywhere.
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Western parts of the area aren't far from of a 4-6 inch snowstorm if she were to wobble a bit further east, so it's really a nowcasting, watch the radar time. I am confident some areas will get 18+ and really jackpot, and it will be interesting to overlay actuals with the models when all is said and done.
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Watching the models, +/- 30 miles will make a big difference up here between less than 6" or more than 12". Personally, I'm routing for 6-12" and watching the costal areas get dumped on. I'm actually OK with not getting 18-20" up this way, but we'll see. Not looking to jinx anything, just giving my personal take.
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School has called a delay for tomorrow morning due to forecasted ice. Where is the precip coming from? It's mostly dissapating as it heads east.
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0.6"
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If the moisture column saturates in time to reach the ground before it's halfway over, and IF rates get heavy enough. Two big IFs, especially northern areas.
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Doesn't look like much of anything coming north of 195, or is that because the radar is down?
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The D2 drought category had been removed from northern NJ and eastern PA after the storm 2 1/2 weeks ago, only to be added right back with this update. Dryness continues.
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Flurries have developed here.
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Looks like we are going to stay socked into the clouds today up this way.
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Down to 6, with a wind chill in the -10s. Half to 2/3 inch of snow is a best estimate. High Point may remain below 0 all day. Wind chill -30s up there.
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I keep two humidifiers - one in each bedroom to maintain around 30% for sleeping and healthier sinuses. The rest of the house has been running 10-20% the past month and my one at work has shown single digits on a few days. Maybe deeper water?
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Of note is that the drought monitor still shows widespread drought conditions, even after last weekend's storm. I'd bet money January was below normal in many places despite the storm, and February may end up the same or worse. All of the relatively minor events in the past or yet to come won't add up enough to reverse long term trends.
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UP to 13 with a cold wind howling. Low was 2. Irregardless of the snow we may or may not get, this winter will make me apprciate spring.
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Have reached 20 degrees. It's quite bearable outside without the wind and bright sun. The sun angle is already noticeably higher and stronger than 5-6 weeks ago.
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"Warming" up quick off the morning lows. A couple of places are already up 25 degrees off the low. Funny thing is, standing outside in the sun with no wind is actually quite bearable for a few minutes, even though it's only in the teens.
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-1.5 in Sparta before I left for work. I got all the way to -13 on the car driving through the low flat spots in Lafayette which are plentiful on the north end of town toward Rosses Corner. Random nerd land question. What's the "official" meteorological protocol for rounding off the negative numbers? +1.5 would round to 2. But what about -1.5? Typically five and above rounds up, which would actually mean -1. Are they rounding based on stated value or absolute value? My home weather station seems to prefer the first method. I noticed early this morning -0.5 was rounding off to a low of 0, but as soon as it clicked to -0.6, it began reporting the low as -1, so I am curious.
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A fun experiment to do on nights like these is take a temperature sensor and stick it right on the surface of the snow in an open area that radiates well. Even an older style mercury thermometer works. The air temp at standard height could be 0 degrees, and the surface of the snow might be -10 or lower. That explains why our dog is having so much trouble walking outside with the cold snow surface. We got her snow socks, which of course, she won't wear and slinks away when we try to put them on. Go figure.
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Low of 2 in Sparta. Lots of variability in the lows. Walpack bottomed out at -17! They might do better than that in the next couple of nights.
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Now I'm questioning my own 12.2" total because it does seem a bit low compared to others around me. Admittedly, I did not do the clearing technique which I should, so it was probably more (say 13-14") but it had compacted. Mom in Lafayette is telling me 16" but admits it was hard to measure. Either way, I'll take a foot plus. It was a fun storm.
