Picard

Someone might end up quite disappointed tomorrow, even if that front sets up 20-30 miles different from what's forecast, that's going to be a HUGE difference in temps.

What is that, like 80 in Sparta and 50 in the city?

Actually a nice day today with not too much breeze. High 47. I was expecting clouds this afternoon, but the sun stayed out, enough for a short hike that wasn't too cold.

It's damn lucky the outcome wasn't worse. That bus is destroyed. This wind is becoming tiresome. I don't recall seeing any wind advisories posted.

0.75" overnight. Not bad, matched most forecasts for my area.

So, what exactly are we looking at tonight? Almost looks like a lot of it misses this area unless more forms. Central, northern NY state and Central PA are getting hammered.

22/70 out at the Walpack station yesterday, Sussex County. 21/68 the day before. Walpack can really go nuts this time of year.

A couple of points: There's a good conversation to be had around prescribed burns, especially because a percentage of the brush in this area is invasive. But that takes planning, political will, competence, and funding. And at least 3 out of 4 of those things (you decide), are in short supply. I do fear an LA-like event is possible here, especially in areas like Morris County where it is simultaneously still heavily forested and heavily populated. Adjacent to the point above - do any good data sets exist that track average winds over time? It just seems to me that there are more clear day extreme wind events than before, and last night/today is no exception.

Where everything is planted is in direct sunlight all day this time of year. It only ever takes about three sunny days in the 40s come late February and there they are. I had shoots in late January two years ago during a mild stretch. They actually made it all the way through to bloom.

My crocus are up about an inch and a half already. Everything else has just popped through with the thaw, including hyacinth, daffodil, and tulip. Won't be long now and last night's rains were much needed and welcomed.

Nice day out. Most precipitation is taking it's very predictable path - northeast movement up through central PA and into NY state, leaving little if any for the coast.

Gorgeous day. Temp 36, but it feels 15 degrees warmer in the sun.

Single digit and low teens dews any problem for this afternoon?

Also notice the dews are once again 0 or even a little below in much of NJ this morning. The northern fringe of a disorganized system isn't saturating that.

This winter continues to be dominated by cold, windy, and very dry days, as noted by the state climatologist. My skin can attest. The drought monitor still shows D2/D3 conditions, especially southern NJ. Maybe this past weekend put a slight dent in it, we'll see on Thursday when the new report is issued. It's noteworthy how the drought map seems to correlate nicely with a general difficulty to get precipitation to the cost, an issue dating back months. We do see a lot of radar movements generally northeast through central Pennsylvania and into NY state, and those areas are not showing nearly as dry on the monitor. Looks like the Wednesday-Friday prospects are off the table. If anything, another dusting to an inch, followed by more dry wind as the storm passes off well to the south.