Layman

I find this topic very interesting so I created a thread hoping that a discussion can occur sans whining and sobbing about current weather:

Thank you @RDRY for posting this interesting Barron's link regarding the GenCast AI weather model: https://www.barrons.com/news/google-says-ai-weather-model-masters-15-day-forecast-cdc5793d Will, or can, AI improve forecasting reliability? What are your thoughts, opinions and/or experience? Will there still be a need for human interpretation of models going forward? AI is progressing at an incredible rate and continues to positively impact massive data processing: https://x.com/FutureJurvetson/status/1863649174358831312

Clark? Is that you?

For the record, I poke fun at some of your missives because the weather verbiage is way over my head. I appreciate the time and effort you put in to explain your perspective even if I don't understand it. It gives me something to look into, learn more about, consider, form my own opinions on, etc. Others here also take the time to explain what their thoughts are, how things may play out and why they think that may be the case. It's all appreciated and I'm sure there's a quieter group on here that takes the time to read the well thought out explanations and never responds, sarcastically or otherwise but benefits from the analysis. I'd encourage you and others to keep it up, in spite of some of us dbags because any off color reply is only in jest (or should be!) and we all learn from your explanations.

Due to data overload? Poor model programming? Overly dynamic weather patterns? Something or "some things" is affecting the longer term accuracy it seems. It would be interesting to get a solid grasp on what that, or those things are.

I hear they're delicious: www.dickspotatochips.com

I've been complaining about lower glaam scalar values being expressed as faster geogstrophic winds for years and it always seems to fall on deaf ears. Glad to see someone else is onto this as well. /JK!

I was mentioning this storm to my wife just the other day. We had taken the kids to the North Shore Mall for some Christmas shopping and got back to the Portsmouth area right around 6pm. It had been misting/drizzling on the way back and we made one last stop at the Best Buy plaza in Newington. Came out to the car and slid on the thin sheet of ice forming on the pavement. I laughed out loud and said "made it back just in time!" No issues driving home from there w/AWD and Blizzaks. About 6 or 7 days later we got our power back.

I can't believe you guys would forego battling the throngs of humanity for cheap imported goods to instead enjoy carving sweet lines in great conditions amongst the beauty and wonder of nature. Some people...

LOL - they’re definitely jumpy today. They were running away when I took this pic.

36.1, 0.12” of rain and climbing plus some apropos visitors.

Looks like they’ve got 5 cams running up there and a snow stake to track the fun. https://www.mountsunapee.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx

Thicc

Looks like we're officially in consistent snowmaking season now. Looking forward to getting some early December runs in this year. It's been a long time since we've had the time and motivation to make the effort but we've got the whole family kitted out this year and the wife and I are ready to get back out there and enjoy ourselves on the slopes again.

Is there a baseline ocean temperature "required" for consistent snow on the coast? Or, a gradient where it's more likely at or below a certain water temp? .07" of rain on the day so far. Forecast was for between 1.25" - 1.50"ish but it's still early yet.

Am I seeing right that Killington is opening this Friday 11/15? Got a text from them but not sure if they're going to be servicing any trails. Looks like Superstar may be rideable on the cams.

Got hit pretty good with the late day storms yesterday. Not as much hail as Dover but got a good dose of dime-sized stuff that accumulated about a 1/3 to half the amount in the pic of the Subaru that was shared above. Rain really came down for a bit. PWS claims just over 7" per hour rate. Went from zero to over 2" real quick. Branches and leaves down everywhere but no real damage. Left the house just after the 7" per hour rate was recorded and saw a guy riding his bike on my road. He looked angry. Probably a wet and painful ride to remember!

2.5-3" on the ground. 33.4 and seems white-rainish. Winds have been crazy but anemometer STB in a big gust this morning so not sure what speeds we're dealing with. Likely not over 40mph but with branches and precip blowing around it's got more oomph to it. Power still on at least.

36.5 0.12" Rain with Pellets mixing. Gust to 22.8mph earlier but reasonably calm now.

OVC. 40.6/35.5

Curious about this - what kind of system were you replacing and what did you go with? Assuming you replaced a traditional oil burner boiler?

1.52" overnight. 3.61" so far in March.