Layman

High of 64.4 here today - what a day! Definitely a tale of two seasons. Had the same idea as you. First I got in my final mow, low and tight so any snow, and perhaps even a heavy frost, will start to get the ground covered. Then took the machines from mow to snow and blow. We're ready for the season to come regardless of what happens!

Every time a weekly's run a Bitcoin mints its wings?

Looks like they may be working on the base today. I'm always surprised to see how quickly some of these projects go up, but as you've said, it's getting pretty late in the season for this one to come together. https://www.attitash.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx

20.5 for the low around 6:30am.

21.2 for the low. Brisk and frosty.

I don't recall the 11/2002 ice storm. December 11-12, 2008 though, I remember that one. We were doing some Christmas shopping at the North Shore Mall or one of the other MA malls and as we got back into NH we stopped off at the Best Buy plaza in Portsmouth. When I stepped out of the car I slipped on the just-starting-to-freeze-up ice and laughed. Mostly because it was a decent day and I wasn't really expecting ice at that point. Told the wife and kids that our last stop needed to be quick so we can get home before the roads get too icy. Seven days later we got our power back...

Thanks. Supposing the GFS is correct about a Caribbean storm, do the general mechanics and evolution of a storm in that location impact where the ridges and troughs eventually line up in a consistent manner? Sorry if these are very basic questions and most here already know these answers. I'm interested in better understanding the predictions at longer lead times so I can relate what I'm reading from folks here to what I'm seeing on the models. I appreciate anyone who takes the time to explain these answers for the Nth time so I can attempt to keep up!

Are there any specific things you would be looking for (generally) that coincide with or reinforce this atmospheric pattern going forward? What would you want to see over the next 3-5 days that would build confidence in the pattern taking shape and eventually impacting New England weather? I'm assuming that the weather impact on New England would be of the winter variety...?

32.5 Nice and unexpected coating here. Our big oak lost the battle with the wind the past couple days but there's a few stragglers left on the lower branches.

Would someone be so kind to enlighten me as to what "R-wave" refers to? I tried looking it up but didn't see anything really relating to weather aside from a post referencing graphing temps as a sine wave.

Killington cams are looking a lot like March/April today. It'll be nice to see some more snow making and natural snow showing up during the cold shots.

Thanks - I appreciate the details from you and anyone who's willing to answer my often remedial questions. I deal with primarily black and white data where if X happens, Y is the outcome. There's also lots of meaningful influence involved and when a trend happens, it's likely to continue until another known and obvious influence affects that trend and creates another highly likely outcome. Weather and forecasting seem to deal with similar principles but dramatically more "gray" data and an infinite number of outside influences always working to impact an outcome. When people here say "it's going to be AN mid month on" or "rains to Maine", etc I'm curious where the conviction comes from to make those statements. I realize that this being the internet, there's a lot of noise as you allude to, but aside from straight up trolling I imagine there are data points people see that reinforce an outcome they have a high level of confidence in. Whether that's real and based on sound data, being puked out of a Maddoff inspired black box or completely made up out of the blue is interesting to me and where a lot of my questions come from. At some point a forecaster has to commit to an outcome and share it with their audience (assuming that's what's called for in their realm of the profession) and that moment in time where the decision is made, with the data and experience available is where my highest interest is. Simply because I find it "neat" and there's accountability, or should be, after that point to reflect on the decision, the reason for it and the outcome.

As a general reader, I interpret the above to say there's a (very tiny) chance that a winter event could materialize over the coming 10-14ish day range if everything comes together as you were alluding to. Assuming the underlying conditions that would prompt a winter-type event are reinforced in the coming days, is there a point in time, or are there specific conditions that lift confidence to a greater-than-50% chance? Or is that simply not how it works in this realm? Alternatively, is it simply that no matter how far or close in time we are to a potential weather event, there's the chance that the rug can always be pulled out from underneath? Since we're entering winter, and we're looking toward winter/snow events, this particular line of question is relating to that however, I'm generally curious if these kinds of things hold true to all weather events or if the dynamics change based on seasons.

Just took a peek at the North Ridge cam at 1pm on Saturday and it was MOBBED. Every seat on the lift was at max capacity for the entire duration the cam was up. I let it run until it clocked out on it's own. Looked like good conditions and temp at 41. Really nice day to be out there.

41.7 for a low this morning at sea level about 200 miles southeast of you. A relative of mine in Wolfeboro at 800' ASL is routinely 10ish degrees cooler than we are and gets significantly more snow. We've been at the same temps or colder than him so far this fall which has stood out. Don't think it necessarily means anything but it's a noticeable difference from the past few years.

Is there anything specific to a warm airmass that inspires the confidence in it happening or could/would the confidence be the same with a cold/frigid airmass assuming all the model signs were equal? Kudos to all of you who do this for a living and dynamically reevaluate this data every few hours. It must be a career you're passionate about because I imagine it could get exhausting!

The two date ranges I've seen mentioned are "mid-month November" and @ORH_wxman referenced the first 10 days of December.

Suggested updates/edits made to post.

Sorry if this has been discussed ad nauseam here....But, with all the talk of a pending warmup, why is there typically so much confidence put into it playing out? Are there elements to a warm air mass that allow it to dominate over other scenarios playing out? Is it due to being something that can be simply and easily verified (temp readings) and easy to track west to east? Also, another remedial question that's related: is there a standard time period for air masses and/or weather systems to travel across the globe? For example, if there are specific temps in Japan today, does that have any bearing on what our weather may/could be in X number of days? I know it's not this simple but am curious if this kind of thing plays into an overall look and evaluation of North American weather forecasts.

Is there a thread or sticky anywhere with links to all the local ski area cams? If not, would it be helpful to have one? Possibly broken down by state? Just in case there isn't already a thread, and it's something people would find helpful, here's a few to start with if it's helpful. Additional known links can be added to a sticky if/as needed: VT Killington: https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain Okemo: https://www.okemo.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx Stowe: https://www.stowe.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx or https://player.timecam.tv/express/index.html?C=D786BEJG4F5A Stratton: https://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/stratton-mountain/webcams Sugarbush: https://www.sugarbush.com/mountain/webcams Jay Peak: https://jaypeakresort.com/resort/photo-day Mad River Glen: https://www.madriverglen.com/live-web-cam/ Bolton Valley: https://www.boltonvalley.com/the-resort/web-cams/ NH Loon: https://www.loonmtn.com/mountain-report#webcam Waterville: https://www.waterville.com/cams Gunstock: https://www.gunstock.com/discover/webcams/ Bretton Woods: https://www.brettonwoods.com/Activities/photos_and_cams/live_cams Attitash: https://www.attitash.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx Sunapee: https://www.mountsunapee.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx Cannon: https://www.cannonmt.com/mountain/webcam-daily-photo Wildcat: https://www.skiwildcat.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx Cranmore: https://cranmore.com/cams ME Sunday River: https://maine-webcams.com/sunday-river-webcam or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J98tW5YX4Z8 Sugarloaf: https://www.sugarloaf.com/mountain-report Saddleback: https://www.saddlebackmaine.com/mountain-report/webcams/ MA Wachusett: https://www.wachusett.com/the-mountain/media-center/webcams/ CT NY Gore Mountain: https://goremountain.com/the-mountain/summit-webcam/ Catamount: https://catamountski.com/winter/mountain-conditions (scroll to bottom of page)

Thank you for the detailed replies, I appreciate it. I have the thinnest of grasps on interpreting weather model data but find the evolutionary process across our hemisphere and the globe fascinating. So many moving parts coalescing to a space and moment in time that's important to us, our region and our backyards - sometimes mundane, sometimes intense and dangerous but always interesting.

I'm curious about something related to this overview: In the past I've seen analysis of model runs where the confidence seems to be higher for a specific outcome that's 10-15 days out in time. Are there factors that are recognized to reinforce the idea that "yes, this outcome seems likely to happen in 10 days time"? What are some examples from prior storms/years? Piggy-backing on that, my understanding is that (obviously) most 10-15 day outlooks have a low confidence associated with them. From 0-100%, is there a typical level of confidence one maintains for a 10-15 days outlook? What percentage would indicate a high confidence in an outcome that presents itself in this time range?

Seacoast as well. Red squirrels have been harvesting them from up on high, dropping them to the ground then scrambling off to who-knows-where with them.

I'm starting to get concerned that I may not need to mow once more this month...

If you haven't tried one of the Fiskars axes, I certainly recommend giving one a go. In fact, I bought 2 for family members years ago after I got mine because I was so impressed. I found when splitting by hand the maul and/or wedge still has place when you're up against a big twisted round. Anything else that's accepting of being split cleanly dices up so quickly like in @kdxken's video. It's still a good workout but what a joy it was blasting through rounds rather than attacking them from all angles. This is the first year in the past 12-15 I haven't split anything, whether by hand or splitter. Bought 3 cord of green early last year and will be burning that this season. Nothing takes the cool edge off like a good hardwood fire! Up to 48.0 in direct sunlight here at noon.