Layman

Feeling both dry and slotty here

6” OTG at 7:15am. 21.9F Very light snow right now.

I know it's taken in jest, but the geese are quite active around here today. Saw and heard multiple groups packing up and getting out of town. As one astute poster mentioned the other day, they seem to be more reactive than predictive. Lots of evidence of that today.

Spitting snow while getting the plow and blower machines warmed up and checked over. Should be GTG for whatever ends up happening here!

I’m definitely jaded from always coming in under the forecasts for the past few years and feel the same way - maybe 2/3rds for my area. Who knows, maybe this one actually works out this time? if we’re raining on Wednesday then I’m good with getting less than the apparent 12” or so NWS is thinking. If Wednesday has a chance to not be inches of warm rain, let’s get started on stacking piles.

I lived too many years just like this but am much happier now that I don't. Embrace enjoying each moment, whatever they may bring, and make the most of it.

If this influence does come back into play today, is there an estimate as to what kind of enhancement it could have? 10%? Or is it far more complicated and it will simply be apparent on the modeling that something is changing? Curious if there's a known or estimated impact of this happening in these kind of situations.

My interpretation of what they're saying is that they absolutely can however, it then turns into "not a snowstorm". It cuts west and brings rain or goes OTS and gone. Basically the spot where a storm needs to be to be a good snowstorm for the area is far smaller than what's necessary for something to cut west and rain or simply go out to sea and not be anything for us. Easier to forecast/predict something with much wider options to happen than that thin sliver for a great snowstorm. The cutter can go up anywhere west of us right up to VT-ish area (just my guess) and bring rain or poor conditions. Just my take on what they're saying, could definitely still be wrong.

What's the likelihood my area actually sees 12-18"? While prior results don't equal future performance, my guess is likely 6-10" based on my recency-biased, winter-storm PTSD cynical perspective.

Are there specific characteristics associated with a cutter that allows it to be sniffed out and held onto so far in advance? Assuming it actually does come to fruition of course. I imagine confidence builds in it actually happening as we get closer to go-time. Or, is it simply like other storms that get picked up well ahead of time, regardless of track? I'm thinking that because I'd prefer to not have cold rain, my personal negative bias is viewing this differently. Whereas if it were a coastal showing heavy snows along the New England seaboard I'm likely not asking the same questions as to "why this was picked up on the modeling so early".

I don't think they offer AWD to the drivers delivering to my area. I've pulled my fair share of Amazon vans off my lawn. From my own personal archive... January 20, 2023 January 23, 2023 - note the tracks through the snowbank above the van from the prior off-roading experience. These were 2 different drivers.

Ouch! Glad you're Ok! My perception of the "new" era of helmet wearing is skewed due to my recollection of a 20+ year younger self never wearing one on the slopes without any issue at all. "It worked then, it should work now"...However, my 20+ year older self realizes everything has gotten a little more difficult, slower and less adept during that multi-decade break. There's a lot more on the line these days and I'll definitely be wearing a helmet if/when we get on the slopes this season.

Do you typically go to the more northern mountains like Bretton Woods, Wildcat and Attitash? Or do you make it further down to Loon, Waterville, etc? I can't recall the last time I was up in Berlin or how long of a ride it is! If these model runs hold together, it's looking like an adventurous ride south for you on Sunday.

You're joking, right? Nobody's got natural snow but Cranmore has been blowing like crazy. Click to see the other cams aside from the "Valley View" https://cranmore.com/cams

Welcome back, George. We've been waiting.

18.0 this morning. Lowest of all of 2024 so far.

This is really interesting. One (or one group) of the models is going to be more correct than the others. With such a significant disparity, so much so that there may be NO storm, it'll be interesting to see which evolution is ultimately more correct.

Fingers crossed the next 10 days turns things around up north. Plenty of season left. Get our seasonal cold air in and a few producing storms and things can get back on track.

Good Morning 2024 - Happy New Year! Did I miss anything?

I too have an Ambient that I've been happy with for the most part. Definitely curious about the Davis options though, but they do appear to be significantly more costly. My brother got an updated version of my Ambient about a year or two after I got mine and the display is leaps and bounds better. Has a little more data too which is nice. I follow both of ours on Wunderground and it's nice to quickly see what's going on in his neck of the woods. As @mreaves said, they're quite easy to setup, seem to work well enough from a hobbyist perspective and have held up quite good (so far) in multiple years of all kinds of crazy weather. I'd love to hear others thoughts on Davis units if they have them - pros, cons, etc. Also placement options. Mine is not ideal but would be curious to hear how others mounted theirs.

This one threw me for a loop. Saw it on the way home today and may need some help with the interpretation of what it may mean for our future weather...

I ended December at 8.00" of rain on the money. 62.84" for the year. Seems crazy wet for our area. I didn't have a PWS in 2010 (when I recall getting significant rain) or even as recently as 2018 or 2020, whenever we had a drenching summer here, so I don't really have any baseline to compare it to.

Is goose any good? Never had it before.