Layman

There was clearly a mosquito hatch in my area. Even with temps in the mid 20’s overnight, I’ve seen four separate mosquitoes the past 24 hours. Unusual for early February.

Does that kind of mileage beat you up at all is it totally gear dependent? A ride like that sounds awesome to me and the pics you guys post look great. It's something I'd really like to try with the family sometime, although I imagine a rental/guide service won't be doing tons of miles over a few short hours.

Is there a sub-forum here where these topics are discussed? I only see the tangential posts in these monthly threads and haven't sought out any wider discussions. I can imagine they devolve into the typical sh!tshow if they exist. I'd argue that ones faith in "how accredited science operates" is where the entirety of the thing has the potential to break down. Either sound science is being performed or it's not. Biased politics and/or the finances associated therein mix with science like oil and water. Science should be wholly objective. Can it be, or is it when the biases of politics and/or finances are interjected? It's supposed to be, but my USB ports have witnessed enough oddities in these realms (in a professional capacity) to throw up 404 errors regularly and prove without a doubt that "accredited science" is simply not in many really important instances. A single bias, error or purposeful change done decades ago that has perpetuated through to today can change the entire basis of one's belief. Now, clumsily attempting to tie that to February 2024 weather and stay on topic... It's often brought up in these threads how the 1980's had some rough winters. I remember it being COLD. I remember there being little snow. Some of us are old enough to remember how this tied nicely into the belief at the time that we were entering an ice age. Seems that data and belief was inaccurate. The younger folks here that didn't live through, or have no recollection of the winters of the 80's have a different perspective. Winters have presented as milder and that fits nicely with current belief that things are warming. Could this data and belief also be inaccurate? What does that mean for snow in February 2024? Hard to say, but many are still waiting with bated breath to see if a rodent see's his shadow to predict what's going to happen My un-scientific low-bar prediction: We will see at least one more plowable event of 4" or greater in my area before the season is over.

I know anything resembling a dissenting view is frowned upon and the topic is then deemed to be clogging up the thread, but when I read all these posts I can't help but ask is the data accurate? Why is one person's data more accurate than another? Most forums tend to become echo chambers for the topics they're focused on. Discussions turn to debates that turn to fights with each group "taking sides" standing firm with an unwillingness to objectively look outside of their firmly held views. Is the data accurate? Why has NOAA adjusted the temperature data? Was the data they're adjusting more accurate? How much impact do heat islands have? How much impact does time of observation have? How reliable is the global temperature data set? Assuming everything we know is unquestionably, 100% accurate - does it even matter? Does 200 years of presumably accurate temperature data provide any meaningful understanding of the condition of a planet that's understood or believed to be many millions or billions of years old? Cloud seeding? SO2 balloons? These strike me as being akin to "blessing" someone who sneezed to prevent the demons from entering the body. Sure, it has morphed into courteous pleasantry for some reason, but really? Demons entering the body? Humans have believed and orchestrated some really dumb things over thousands of years that seemed at one point in time to be "state of the art". How do we know this is any different?

I had read something about this place in the past year or so - could this be it? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_Air_Force_Station

Did you use a guide service? I've been wanting to do this with my family and was curious if it's a good time.

I like all the data, historical analogs and sciencey stuff that back up the forecasts and ideas around interpreting what may happen. I personally feel however, that with all the inputs that are processed to create a model output, we need magnitudes more to dramatically improve accuracy especially as you look further out into the future. Kind of an obvious statement but it's interesting to consider how much better forecasting can actually get. Are we at the upper limit already? I say "no", but who knows. It's like considering where we are with human transportation - are we at the upper limit? Comparing to model forecasting, are we at the horse and buggy stage? Reusable rockets? Inquiring minds want to know.

As a casual and self-proclaimed thoughtful observer who contributes little to nothing to this forum, I follow the momentum and tenor that you experienced folks provide in your comments to gauge what, if anything may happen weather-wise. I've seen a lot of posts with pretty colors and maps showing beautiful patterns that are just over the horizon for many weeks but alas, here we are on February 1st with the season that's been what it is to date - something that seems may approach normal by seasons end. Perhaps this time, the pattern will be favorable for snow and the necessary moisture and storm tracks will follow to produce something meaningful in our area. If it doesn't, well, that seems to be the greater wholesale pattern we've been in for a few years now so no surprise. It's like we've flipped a coin 15 times and it's been tails every time. We know it's just as likely to be heads on every flip but after a while you kind of fall back on "I don't feel like it's going to". It definitely seems like there are firmly two majority camps in this realm however, especially this time of year: those who want snowy winters and those who don't. While each party may think they're being objective, scientific, rational, logical, etc with their posts, to the casual observer it's clear there's a bias. Certainly not a problem, but when it clouds good judgement with every decision/forecast it becomes painfully obvious and diminishes the weight of the posters perspective in my eyes at least. The horror, I know

This sick irony is that Jack was completely snowed in after "days and days" of unrelenting snow. Just don't go fiddling with the boiler...

3.5ish? Makes for a pretty morning out there. Should be an easy cleanup.

How long until this term shows up in an AFD? This is one of those things that morphs over time and gets so far away from the original source, but is used regularly enough that everyone understands what it means. Years from now people will be studying the genesis of the "Kraft" weather phenomenon. I can see the dictionary entry now: Used in a sentence: "Eight hours into heavy snowfall I began anticipating the Kraft by disrobing and performing snow angels in my front lawn."

Awesome pic! Why does the rain look like it's falling as fluffy white stuff?

FYI @40/70 Benchmark, I blame you for this.

I enjoy your posts and appreciate your meteorological evolution but don't understand the Papal praise. Might I suggest you take the age-old "trust but verify" approach and whenever you see a Vatican-based observation posted simply click on this link to see how accurate it is: https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/webcams/dover_united-states_5085520 I have the benefit of looking out my window to see if what's stated is true. For example, the other morning an obs was posted saying "Coating, flurries now". We actually had 1/2" to 3/4" of snow on the ground and light snow falling that lasted for hours, eventually giving us about an inch and half total. Not crazy, but also not accurate. For whatever reason, underplaying reality is a fetish for some posters here. More power to them if that's what makes them happy. If you're like me and prefer to live in the real world and value accurate info, take a moment to see if what people are saying is true or not. BTW, I hope you get crushed with a SEMA/Cape Cod blizzard before this winter is through.

46.6 here. I'm pleased. Got to get chains on one of the tractors and replaced the valve cover. Great weather for it and just in time for a 1-3 incher coming in that I may or may not have to clear

I understand the sentiment about the models but I think it really comes down to the fact that these are imperfect human-created systems trying to extrapolate an incredibly dynamic atmospheric manifold (thanks Tip!) to predict what may happen at a specific place, at a specific time that we individually may or may not want to happen. The weather will ultimately be whatever it's going to be at that place and moment in time regardless of what we want, think, wish-for or feel. My personal knee-jerk reaction has been similar with regard to the models where I think "these things can't get it right!" However, when I consider what they're trying to do and how accurate they may or may not be, I realize it's an incredibly tall task and it's amazing that we can get as close as we do. Imagine if someone was really good at counting cards in a deck playing Blackjack. One hand has a single deck. Next hand, 10 cards are added. Next hand 2 cards are taken away and a 2nd deck is added. And on and on. Comparing to weather, it would seem that there are more cards in the deck further out and they're taken away as we get closer to the event - to the point where the card counter is doing pretty good considering what's gone on and what's left in the deck. I can envision the emotional investment being similar between the gambler and the weather aficionado! If nothing else, I find it interesting, engaging and often humorous if you don't have a dog in the fight one way or another.

Hoping to hit 50 here but not sure it's happening. 41.2 in the sun at the moment.

Interesting. The SDS shows it's 91%-96% sodium chloride so I think their "reduced corrosion" claims are a little inflated. It looks like their inhibitor is the 0.02% addition of sodium gluconate. Not sure that's enough to move the needle. Maybe internal testing showed it helped... Too bad because the salt and corrosion negatively affects so much in our area. https://www.cargill.com/doc/1432076001002/clearlane-sds.pdf

Alternatively, one may enjoy witnessing the emotional carnage on a routine basis, regardless of what the weather may bring.

@40/70 Benchmark Does this qualify?

There may be two of us in the minority on this however, I do like this song and really enjoy Rick Beato's breakdown of it. If you're unfamiliar with his channel and enjoy music, it's definitely worth checking out:

Understood. May I offer: Yea though he walks in the shadows of Death Valley, may he predict more heat, for the heat is with him. Amen.