Layman

Doesn’t get any more official than this - 5” on the money. Take it to the bank!

The devastation from the CA fires is pretty insane. Whole areas gone. Here's a drone pic of an entirely burned neighborhood in Pacific Palisades: https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1877136538229710997 Apparently there's a bunch of arson going on. Not sure if it's copycat/opportunistic stuff or the actual genesis. Crazy to think people would do this: https://x.com/BrooksWeather/status/1876946365802037569 https://x.com/hubermanlab/status/1877236580676493784 https://x.com/Right_Now_Views/status/1877217338883453075

I'm very pragmatic, realistic and optimistic so I'm not saying this with any negative bias at all - I simply find it ironic that I recall seeing near identical posts to this regarding the pattern we were supposed to be having at this very point in time about 10-14 days ago. Others have mentioned that the can is continually kicked with respect to getting snow in New England and that certainly can be seen as accurate. My personal take is that all model depictions are wrong, until they aren't. Sounds stupid on the face of it, but it's also 100% true. The models seem to be having moments of accuracy with some characteristics, but depending on lead time and granularity they're puking out a lot of falsehoods.

According to Jensen Huang of Nvidia, we're 15-30 years from having "useful" quantum based AI.

This is insane. Seems like the fires are nowhere near under control yet. https://x.com/SiaKordestani/status/1876845562328146405

Is there any benefit to providing a synopsis post-mortem on this? I seem to recall back in late Dec that there was a "massive" signal for this time period. Something was sniffed out at that time that you caught as well and looked like with a certain evolution could drop a heck of a storm on us. Sure, we watched it collapse in real-time over a period of 10-14 days or so, but thinking back to that initial signal, what needed to happen that didn't? Does it simply boil down to the speed of the N and S jets not capturing the energy in time or at least a proper sequence to manifest a storm here? Alternatively, if the signal was truly massive 10+ days ago, does that automatically imply something is going to happen somewhere down range regardless? If so, what is that end result here on the east coast? I know we're essentially seeing that now, but I guess that's indicative of the necessary evolution falling apart, taking a massive signal and shredding it to nothing along the way. I'm curious about this because I simply follow along and try to keep up but for those of you who do this for a living, I'm interested in your reflections on what went wrong, what went right, what went unexpectedly, etc.

A degree’d met moonlighting in sales - I like it!

Weren't you one of them?

Hopefully warm enough for one of these

Is it reasonable to say what we're seeing in the evolution could be chalked up to largely a timing issue? I'm assuming there are other mechanics at play impacting that timing but for the storm to follow a desired path to provide snow in New England, it needs to get captured as you mentioned it sent on up to our doorstep.

Are there specific atmospheric mechanics that make or allow this to happen (I'm assuming "yes" because the models are picking up on it actually/potentially happening) that can be discerned at some reasonably defined lead time? Or, is it something that simply just happens? I see terms being used like "holding the energy back" or "not diving in time" etc but am curious if there's something akin to a tangible reason why. Kind of like a block of NE Canada shunting storms eastward. This is an obvious and easy to understand concept for me but some of the other mechanics remain elusive.

Could this be where AI may ultimately shine? I see it as a huge hurdle to attempt to overcome but it'll be interesting to see if improvements can be made.

I remember it. No power, everything quietish outside except for the sound of ice dropping off trees and the consistent shotgun pops of tree tops, large branches and full trees coming down. That was another 5-7 day outage for us on the Seacoast of NH.

We've got woodpeckers galore here so I can definitely see that. Is there anything that can be done do stave off the emerald ash beetle if that is the cause? Thank you for the feedback and insight, I appreciate it!

In weather, when is this NOT a thing? It seems there's a near infinite amount of variables that can play with most any weather pattern aside from perhaps a summer COC teasing season.