mnchaserguy

Got a solid 4” here in my backyard. I was on the northern end of the heavier band this morning. I bet places just to my north got half of that, and we were in the bullseye on everything leading up to this event. Might add another inch this afternoon, but it looks like the main band will stay south of me. .

Faribault reporting 4.3” at 7:00. That is where the heaviest band set up and sat this morning. Guessing I have about 3” at my house. Dry slot looks to be working in from the south. We’ll see how far north it goes and how much havoc it wrecks on the snow. .

Looks like this thing came in well south of where the models showed it would. Wonder where the bullseye ends up now. .

I don’t think I’ve ever seen it either. Especially not for this large of an area. North side of the cities is definitely in the better spot, but the 18z models say it might not matter. 18z hrrr actually buries the south metro more. I think both of us will enjoy a solid storm out of this. Could have some 1”/hour rates in the morning. .

I went from nothing to Winter Storm Warning. Just gotta hope that dry slot doesn’t screw me over tomorrow. 10-20 miles could make a big difference in what I get vs what @Ordlowpitmsp gets tomorrow. .

Clipper systems are annoyingly finicky. Looks like we’ll miss out on the snow today in Minneapolis. Still on track to get a decent amount from a more potent clipper on Thursday. .

Models have trended a decent ways south for tomorrow. Maybe a half inch for us. Not sure what that means for the track for Thursday if it’ll follow a similar southern trend. The good news is that Thursday’s system looks to have a pretty wide band so even if we don’t end up in the sweet spot we should still get a decent amount. .

Looks like a couple of chances for snow here in Minneapolis this week. An inch or two tomorrow night then a bigger clipper system on Thursday. Still a bit of spread in the models for both systems but either way we should pick up some snow this week. .

It was really weird. The snow squall conditions would last for about 30 seconds at a time for me. The main band stayed just to my south and was only about a mile wide for the most part. .

First time I’ve ever been in a snow squall warning .

First time I’ve ever seen them actually dance and it happened directly over my head. Can’t believe it. .

I’m having to look overhead and south right now in central Minnesota in order to see them too. Crazy. Never had to do that before. .

Pretty awesome show in central MN. First time I’ve gotten to see them directly overhead and even south of me. .

One other thing to look back at is the amount of low level (0-3km) CAPE. Not sure how high it was on Tuesday but the general rule of thumb here in Minnesota and northern plains is if the 0-3km CAPE is 150 or above the storms usually do well. Overlapping this low level CAPE with a lot of vorticity is how we get a lot of our “surprise” tornado days. It makes sense. Even if the mixed layer is on the marginal side for CAPE, if a lot of it is loaded in the lowest levels, it can still produce some significant storms. The Ashby, MN tornado was a perfect example, although we had the extra benefit of extreme MLCAPE. .

Your last point is exactly why I missed the Osceola EF2 (which turns out was the smallest but strongest of the tors in that area). Saw the couplet to my south for that tor really get going after my second tor had lifted but without a good road option south and it getting close to dark it wasn’t worth risking a drive into Osceola with the couplet heading right for town, even though it may have given me a view of it in hindsight. .