jshetley

I have a feeling rain is about all we get. It's going to reach near 50 at GSP in my opinion and we will never recover from that. Having to get cold air in during the storm almost never works out. The only time it did is March 2009.

1000% agree with all of this. Our forecast area is fortunate to have her here. That afd was fantastic.

Watch this thing go WAY north now and give only rain from the TN-KY and NC-VA line and south. My call for nothing in Jan may just stand yet.

Yep that and the fact that the CAD is overperforming. Rain has been drying up at the GA SC line all day until just the last couple of hours because of that. Most of Al and GA have had tons of rain, but we will not be getting nearly as much. If this trend continues, the drought will become centered over the Carolinas as time goes on.

We are going to get maybe .75 of rain for a storm total of 1.75, but models showed up to 3-4 over upstate SC which we are not going to get. And another thing. When will the NWS ever learn how to forecast CAD. This one was supposed to be weakening tonight, but is getting stronger and heading back to the south.

Even the rain predicted for tonight is not looking to last nearly as long as forecast over NC and SC. Hopefully this isn't the start of trend towards much drier, but I'm afraid it could very well be. Hopefully it'll at least be warm if it has to be dry. Cold and dry is just awful.

Starting to look my Jan forecast is going to hold up. This thing will trend into a sunny weekend before it is over.

Yeah we need the Euro to come on board. If it does and shows amounts like the GFS does, this board will go nuts in about 2-2.5 hours.

Well if the 12z GFS comes even close to verifying I'm going to look a fool for my Jan forecast.

I'll take all the rain I can get. By the way, I'm not sure we ever get another storm like the 1988 snowstorm. For upstate SC that one will never be topped. For all talk about the 1993 superstorm, that only dropped about 2-3 inches of snow here. The northwest half of this board would meltdown for sure if we got a repeat of Jan 24-25 2000 though. That one dropped right at 12 inches of snow here, while most of the GSP metro only had light snow of flurries that didn't stick. The posters from Raleigh would go crazy though.

Watching Knight Rider.

Yep it's jinxed. Even I know not to start a thread about a winter storm this soon.

We have no need for bitter cold without precip. Getting down to 20-25 is enough. Anything lower and with dry weather is useless.

Exactly what i have been saying. Since next weekends' threat seems to be gone mid Feb it is.

I know I'm right at least about the next 10 days. Someone on the other board started a thread dedicated to it, LOL. That was the kiss of death for this storm.

Feb is our month. Jan will go by with little if any winter weather outside of the mountains.

It'll be e8 on that map that verifies though.

The 18z GFS is well on its way to coming back to reality with both precip and temps. When day 16 on this model actually arrives, no one outside of the mountains will have had significant winter weather here in the southeast. Temps will not go below 25 either outside of the mountains and 1 inch or less total precip will have fallen. Reality will be 60-70 or warmer for highs and around 50 for lows.

If I'm right we will like Feb though, especially in NC and SC. I think the CAD areas get nailed around mid Feb with an icestorm that could rival the Dec 2002 and Dec 2005 icestorms. One of the really cold, cold snaps could reach us too in early Feb.

Looks like I was right don't it. Jan is done. Have to wait until Feb.

Yeah I saw that on the other board. He is saying Feb would be very warm and wet just like 1990. I'd take that in a heartbeat. That month featured major flooding in parts of GA and AL and a severe weather outbreak over much of the southeast.

Feb is certainly our best chance this year. The CAD areas could become very icy sometime in Feb.

GSP says a very nice northwest flow event is coming later this week up there. 1-2 inches in the usual areas.