jshetley
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Everything posted by jshetley
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Many places in the northwest piedmont of NC got 2 6+ events in 1987. 1-1-1987 and 1-22-1987. Some areas up there got a third one. 1-25-1987.
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I thought the NAM was perfect. It certainly had the warm nose right. As far as upstate SC goes, if 5-6 models snow winter weather and just 1 does not that model will be right.
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I'd like to see a repeat of Jan 2000 where I get good snow and the I-85 area and north is left OUT of it. They have had enough up there.
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I'm afraid ice will end up being the big story in the big metro areas of Charlotte and GSP including where I am southeast of Spartanburg. Areas just north of these 2 metros will do very well with snow. If we get this setup in Jan or Feb though, more of us would get snow.
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Irma goes out to sea. Or maybe scrapes the Outer Banks. No impact from it west of I-95 in either state.
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Looks like the snow is a failure. Hopefully the cold weather next week will fail too. Cold is just useless at this point.
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No chance here now. It is done.May not even have thunder anywhere in the GSP CWA with this event.
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I believe your area got about what was forecast though. i'm hearing that anywhere from 2-5 inches fell in the northern half of the GSP metro from this. It from Atlanta to Athens up through the southern upstate into Charlotte and into Raleigh that busted badly. I pretty much knew after that Thursday evening NAM run that this was over for that zone and did get that right.
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If this had just been 12 hours slower we'd have a different story. The cold air is finally coming down in CAD fashion somewhat and changing precip over, but it is too late. One final band came through here just in the last 1.5 hours and gave us a very nice dusting here in Jonesville so the shutout is done. Hopefully this band gave Mac a dusting too.
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Now I'd like to see a repeat of Jan 2000 that would leave everyone north of I-85 out. They have had enough already.
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Yep. We actually got better forecasts back in the 1980's than we do now. They live and die with the useless models now. Maybe some of the models need to be gotten rid of to force the mets to actually forecast.
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You all in the RDU area probably stand a decent chance of salvaging this as the cold air pours in tomorrow morning, but it is not happening for SC. NO MATTER what the models say they are not to be believed in SC without those 2 things in place. With the cold air already in place this would have been an unbelievable event just like Jan of 1988, but the cold air was not here.
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Not so. We have 2 VERY GLARING problems. No cold air in place before the storm and NO high in place to provide CAD. Once the NAM shifted last evening I knew this was over for many of us. Until we get those 2 things in place the models can not be anything but wrong when they say we get a good snow. 100% of the time. No exceptions.
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We all should have saw this coming once it was known that we had to depend on the cold air coming over the mountains. That will not cut it for a good many of us. I'm shocked that the rain snow line is as far south as it is.
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Not here. Was only rain.
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At least you have had a little sleet twice this winter. Not so over here. We got completely shut out in 2012 and that may be going to happen again this winter. I'm ready for severe storms and heavy rain now. Maybe Feb and March will be like they were in 1990.
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It RAIN in northwest SC though and NOT snow. Not snow in Atlanta either.
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GSP about to give up too in the majority of the upstate. Just like I figured all the way back to last night, this will not work out. They still think the I-85 corridor will be ok, but I have my doubt about that too. Maybe in Feb here, because I am 100% certain the rest of this month is done. I'd like to see 80 degree temps come back if we can't get snow.
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Our temp is RISING where I am. This is done in SC outside of the mountains. Probably no sleet either, just rain south of highway 11 from here on out.
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Hopefully after this poor excuse for a storm we go into the 70's next week and STAY there for at least 3 weeks.
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If we had the cold air in place and a damming high up in PA or NY we would be getting buried in snow or sleet tonight and the midlands of SC would probably get a major icestorm. If this system was just 6-10 hours slower, we would all probably do much better. That's how areas in NE NC will get their snow tomorrow when the cold air pours in, but the moisture will be gone by then west of I-77.
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On to Feb for most of us. This one is for the mountains and west. A lot now like early April 1987 when Birmingham AL got 9 inches of snow, while ATL, GSP, and CLT got rain.
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We are missing 2 VERY IMPORTANT things now. 1. The cold air is NOT here in place. 2. No CAD this time. If they were here this would be a much bigger deal. Having to depend on cold air crossing the mountains in time is a losing game.
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Maybe folks should listen to me more. This storm is done for the GSP metro along with Charlotte and Raleigh. Dec 2009 it is.
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I know it's the NAM, but I just have a feeling it has the right idea. The cold air is going to have a very hard time crossing the mountains I'm afraid. You are set though if you are in Asheville, Hickory, the Triad in NC and on up into VA. Those areas get 4-8 inches of snow. Basically if you got snow just before Christmas in Dec 2009 you'll get snow tonight. If you got rain then, you'll get rain tonight.