Retrobuc

Do you get paid by them? Just curious since you are pushing them so hard

I moved to Florida 5 years ago after a lifetime in NJ and this is the coldest winter since Ive been here. 40s at night, 50s/60s during the day for the last 2-3 weeks. This graph makes me want to move further south!

You would never know if experiments like this were going on now anyway. I'm not saying the government is purposely trying to send storms and injure people, that's crazy. However, it is equally as crazy to think these types of programs are not going on regularly and sometimes go awry, like the hurricane seeding did. Ask yourself how many things labeled conspiracy theories since 2020/Covid have actually been proven to have a high likelihood of being true or outright true?

Its not like the government has never tried to manipulate the weather... https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/almost-science-fiction-hurricane-modification-and-project-stormfury

Does any one have a non biased source that documents historical sea levels for Florida towns? there seems to be no shortage of people wanting to own on barrier islands even with these storms. Id like to see historical sea level heights to pattern what the rise actually is.

Only folks on this chat board were hyping north of Tampa

The local media was clear that you should evacuate if your zone called for that. I think the local level of info was right on. if you lived on a barrier island from Cedar Key to Ft Myers and chose not to leave or take precautions, that's on you, not local officials or lack of information.

By the same token, we cant have public officials like the Mayor of Tampa saying things like "if you choose to stay you WILL die". That's sensationalism that makes people tune out. What happened to the days of stating facts, giving the best information at the time, explain first responders will not be available for rescues and let people decide their course of action. Hype and sensationalism have caused much of people's distrust with information.

There is a big difference between national media coverage and local media coverage. The local media did a great job explaining that the storm would begin to lose strength as it neared Florida and that tornadoes would be a problem. The national coverage I watched explained none of that. From my perspective, the forecasts from the local Orlando region news media were spot on. They called the heavy rain band that went through my area, the back end winds and east coast storm surge. If your perspective is national coverage, you did not get the same level of detail, which is to be expected.

I measured 18.2 inches of rain and a local news outlet posted winds of 86 MPH in Daytona. It was incredible and an intense 5 hours overnight.

8PM is accurate IMO.

Thanks.

Hard to believe landfall is predicted after 10pm, seems like it will be much earlier

I havent seen any of that

Many of the local mets in Orlando are calling for landfall near Sarasota or south and is moving faster than has been forecasted. Landfall around 10pm, off the coast by noon tomorrow

The definition of Darwinism...

I just found this out a few weeks ago, my son's friend works there and told me. Who ever thought this was a good idea?

That doesnt look any dfferent than most weekdays in the area.

What are the chances this continues to move north beyond TPA and into the Cedar Key area?

As a Florida resident, interested in the GOM chance. We avoided any effects from helene, but am not seeing much discussion on here about this next chance. I'm hoping the lack of discussion is a good thing.

I'm not a weather forecaster and dont pretend to be. I follow this page because it provides interesting information that you cant get elsewhere. So, my method (naïve forecast) may not be something supported by Colorado State or an official agency, but it shows that trends and mathematical data can be just as useful as maps and analogs. I did not play devils advocate, I felt that everyone being 50% higher than the highest ever peak was far too bullish. Looking back at history, previous bullish calls missed by 25-30%. Therefore, I went with the lower baseline and discounted slightly more. Dont get me wrong, I could care less whether I am right or wrong. I am more interested in methodology and how pros use this to correct their modeling.

Better yet, what was your reasoning in only going with 13 named storms in the face of overwhelming model and climate parameter support for a hyperactive season? I mean, you're sharing your numbers while knowing full well the majority of the best TC climatologists on the planet are scrambling for answers. 13 named storms is barely average. I went with those numbers based on another post that showed deviation from the previous high forecast calls. I took that as a baseline and then discounted from there simply using a calculation, not one bit of empirical weather data.

I'm a lurker, but I do financial modeling/forecasting for a living. Since every model called for a hyperactive season, how much do you feel groupthink plays into this? Meterology has become a business and it may be safer to stay with the pack than it is to venture out on your own. Its easier to be wrong with the group than to be wrong as an outlier. Interested to know what people here think. For the record, I said this season would be 13/8/2 in the contest. I feel pretty good about those numbers.

To me the CSU forecast was always too bullish and it seems to have become a game of groupthink after that. You should always be cautious when forecasts for anything are 4-6x higher than the highest point.

What is the timing on this?