Blizzard Hunter

Well I appreciate the Icon giving a smidgen of hope, even though there is no question whatever the least snowy solution being modeled is what will happen. Trend of this winter.

I imagine if Storm 1 is shunted a bit further east, so will storm 2. I will be shocked if they do end up further east (like the Icon depicts) but it is not impossible. I would not bet on it though.

With how this winter has played out, no doubt that this will be close to final result. I say this half kidding but we are on a serious losing streak in this area and hard to be optimistic until we get an unexpected win.

Just for fun, I'm going back twenty years to remember winters in terms of snow in Delaware Valley area. '02/2003 - Great (Had historic president's day storm) '03/'04 - Can't remember any 4 inch plus event. 04/05 - Decent, had big snow storm right before Eagles championship game. 05/06 - Had February blizzard that was fun, but snow melted in three days. 06/07 - All I can remember is valentine's day Slizzard. 07/08 - Can't remember any 4 plus inch events 08/09 - Had one storm that was forecasted to plaster us but we got a couple of inches. 09/10 - Unbelievable!!! Snowmaggedon 10/11 - Pretty good, Jan was snow covered all month. Had awesome Jan Snow to rain to snow blizzard. 11/12 - We got nothing 12/13 - Nothing 13/14 Decent, winter of the Eagles/Lions snowbowl. 14/15 Nothing memorable 15/16 Dark knight Snowstorm! 16/17 March snow event but overall pretty bad. 17/18 March was very snowy, one blizzard. 18/19 Nothing 19/20 Nothing 20/21 Almost had white Xmas. Jan had a nice modest snow event but that was it. 21/22 Nothing memorable. 22/23 So far, really really bad.

Over the last five plus years, the trend has been when we observe models and say "we need X,Y or Z to happen for big snow" by the next model run the opposite happens and all hope for snow is gone. Have we tried to fool weather gods by saying we want whatever will happen to bring us mild rain to show up on next run?

I wonder this too.

I appreciate you taking the time to respond but I did not say models were trending colder, I said they would correct to a colder solution. The initial piece of energy will cut west but how strong it gets and how much warmth it takes with it is still very much in question. I didn't misrepresent anything.

Gotcha. I definitely have much to learn in general.

I apologize if your remark wasn't meant for me. Otherwise, I'm not sure what went over my head.

We will see what happens, won't we?

Considering both the Euro and CMC have offered up weird runs, I think one has to wonder if adjustments are being made.

Rain is most likely scenario as of now, but "flukey" is not the right word. We are almost in Mid January and I think the latest CMC run only strengthens my belief that models will correct to a colder solution.

Yes, I understand what you are saying and am fully aware that the low could cut to Ohio. My point is that right now models are showing mostly rain, which could happen. However, if a low does develop near VA, the snow probabilities would be greater than what is shown so far. I think models are taking energy/warmth too far north with initial low and may correct as time goes on. I think the same latitude to SF would be near VA, not MD.

Thanks for giving the details. I don't buy any of the models showing primaries cutting to the west. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it would go against the more often right than wrong thinking that a storm will exit the coast at similar latitude where it came on.

Well said. I wonder if it is starting to pick up on a trend of trying to make things colder. Probably not, but sometimes weird runs like this mean changes are going to happen to future runs.

Given how the Op had the impossible dual scenario of both a primary Ohio low and a coastal low, I don't think the euro overall has a good handle on this right now.

Agreed. It is like it is trying to place bets on both scenarios happening on the same run. If a coastal low is going to develop near North Carolina, there is no way as much warmth shown here is going to flow that far north.

I would confidently bet my life savings that scenario will not play out.

I am a newbie so I don't feel right doing it, but shouldn't we create separate thread for 1/13-1/14 threat. Despite the negativity on here, it is still up in the air and has MECS potential.

Anyone giving up is letting too much emotion dictate their thoughts.

I share your frustration, and if we were talking March/April I would easily dismiss this system. This time of year, marginal air is good enough. We will have too see how 50/50 low plays out and how much phasing occurs and where.

I look at this model run and laugh. Yes i get that warm water/SE winds will lead to rain on the coast in this scenario at least initially. However, there is no way a storm that powerful would not generate it's on cold air on backside. If such a storm like this materialized and was moving ENE, many areas would turn to snow at some point. Too early to write this off in my opinion.