It's gotten so bad that I will consider it a win if the models still suggest measurable snow for a couple more days, until the inevitable shift to the west and warmth.
I understand your point, and it will probably either be sunny and cold or warm and wet. However, the possibility for snow is greater than what you present based on last model runs. I expect the chance to fizzle out, but just saying. Let's go Birds.
Forgive my ignorance but I see winter precipitation in Tennessee expanding ENE now reaching Virginia. I also see a disturbance diving down into this from Canada and somehow this means a sunny day for us tomorrow? What am I missing?
Looking at radar down near Arkansas, this shift doesn't surprise me. I actually wouldn't be surprised if more positive adjustments are made. However, given how this this winter has gone, I'm too reluctant to believe it.
I think this is a good sign that there are scenarios where enough blocking can exist if we do get a stronger storm out of gulf. Still a long shot, I know.
FWIW, I think your analysis is fair. I also don't deem it to be overly negative. This winter it is extra hard to read some of your analysis given how sucky the winter has been, but it's reality.
GFS and Euro suggest a coastal forms for 2/3-2/4. Too far out to buy in but first time I've seen them both suggest it. I think I am most hopeful for this 2/1-2/5 time period but just waiting to see more support.
As skeptical as I remain, the fact that ICON and Nam both have snow is not something to ignore. If I had to guess now, we may get a period of wet snow but little to nothing will stick.
I get the joke here, but with the way this winter is going it wouldn't surprise me if the only real snowfall happens in early April between hours of 1am and 5am and is melted by morning.