Blizzard Hunter

Correction from what though? Has any model shown the same solution consistently?

Lol. Trenton gets two feet and Philly gets less than an inch? That would be something.

This is probably what will happen in our area, but I do think chances are greater than tiny that this thing could trend a little more snowy.

I don't think SE PA is out of woods yet. I get that models favor NNJ and north but if this thing intensifies only a little sooner or moves a little west than SE PA is in the game for accumulation.

I'm confused, didn't CMC, GFS and NAM all show a western shift with a little earlier NS interaction?

I get that that it is the Icon, but I'll bet final solution is not far off.

For a 991 MB storm, surface looked very disorganized.

I'm with you here. In a winter where nothing has gone right, I'm supposed to believe they will now when we need even more things to go right for big snow? Bring on spring.

I appreciate the breakdown Ralph, and I am monitoring to see if any big snow storm materializes for SE PA. However, I still think this is headed to a path of snow but not hard enough to stick during the day and any overnight accumulation melted by morning rush hour. I hope to be wrong.

I am a true Blizzard hunter indeed, and a desperate one. It's been going on five years now.

I'b be on bored for something close to a March 1993 superstorm type of deal (Which I know is not going to happen), otherwise bring spring. Given how this winter has gone, it is not surprising that as climatology works less and less in our favor the models are finally showing some good setups.

Agreed. I think the Deform band is going to be pretty big. Partially wishcasting but also due to the CIPS analogs which was presented earlier. Some heavy hitters in there.

Yes, I was wrong to say pull in cold air, I meant generate its own cold air. I am not as well versed in meteorology as others in here, but I have followed snowstorms closely since I was a kid. I do think there are some that are getting caught up on certain things (like mid level and ground temps) and being too dismissive about snow chances. Either way, I appreciate your breakdowns as I try to get better educated.

I don't dispute that there are many ways for this to fail, and probably will fail when it comes to snow. I responded to Euro control chart because it showed a 997 low, which obviously means some were hinting at a deeper low than that. There is no way a low deeper than 997 would not be tightening things up and pulling in more cold. I will be curious to see if other models trend toward stronger system.

You are right that I wasn't really paying attention to the example you provided from two weeks ago. Were temps forecasted to get down into the 30'S for that storm? Was that storm intensifying with a deform band the way this is modeled? I also don't recall models giving any kind of chance for snow within 7 days, till now. My reasoning is mostly that I believe a strong dynamic storm will form and pull away from Delmarva coast ENE, kind of like what Euro shows. However, if strong storm doesn't form and intensify quickly and take good track, then it will be unquestionably rain. A weak storm that takes perfect track will mean rain was well.

I fully recognize getting snow to the coast is going be very difficult in this setup, but with a 997 Low off the coast I do not buy the 0 degree line being all the way in Western PA and Finger lakes region of NY. It is still early February regardless of what kind of airmass we have here.

Agreed. I would bet on more snow in that scenario than modeled.

Even if that scenario came true, I would expect a changeover to snow.

Yes, but the UKIE, GEFS showed a developing system to the south and if the UKIE was a bit colder, would have been a crush job. They were not doing that before. I think we need to look at this possibility more closely. * Update - GEPS trended more towards storm idea, not much but a little.

I appreciate your post, but I don't understand why it is directed at me? I was not the one who said there was no chance of anything working out. I was arguing that a Dynamic system changes the rules a bit. -What triggered my response to the other gentleman was he made it seem like there was no chance. Perhaps I misunderstood, but that is why I responded.

Funny. I would bet strongly more snow would stick than shown here.

This idea that it will only snow in a perfect setup is stretching things. It just improves our odds. If a dynamic system forms to our south, then all bets are off. Do I think such a storm will develop? I don't think so. However, if models keep showing one developing, we need to pay attention.

I agree that the scenario depicted by the 12Z GFS is not going to happen.

We have had very dynamic snowstorms in March, so I would be on board. In April is when I start to detest any cold.

For sure. I'm still skeptical, mostly due to thinking "nothing else has gone our way this winter so why would this"? However, if such a storm does form as GPS and Icon tries to depict, it would most likely be snow and not go out to sea.