Yardstickgozinya

It's pretty wild how it keeps raining on both of us every night, but Harrisburg comes out almost dry. Maybe if I say it's dry, Harrisburg will magically start to rain. I know this method definitely works for snow and other weather and non weather related phenomenon.

Upgrade Eastern Pa.

Normally I wouldn't post these on marginal days like today and yesterday but given the slow and training nature of this system and drought conditions I have decided to. Keep I'm mind that both yesterday and today have less then a 5% risk of anyone in CPA seeing severe weatherat there local. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley.

Today's NWS forecast discussion , and spc discussion on th Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 509 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Multi-day stretch of wet weather continues into late week * A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible this afternoon across east-central PA with localized downpours * Eventual breakdown of the stagnant/repeat wet pattern signals improving conditions for Mother`s Day Weekend && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Training rain bands continue to track north-south across the Susquehanna Valley near the occluded frontal zone early this morning. MRMS data indicates hourly rain rates have leveled off quite a bit from last night at <0.50 inch/hr. Noticeably cooler and drier air has arrived in clear slot behind the front with areas of locally dense fog across the Laurel Highlands and south central ridges. The closed upper low responsible for the recent multi-day stretch of wet weather throughout most of CPA will begin to unravel and lift to the northeast into New England by 12Z Wed. Despite its pending departure, it will help to trigger another round of rain/showers and a few thunderstorms ramping up through peak heating. Hires guidance focuses isolated to scattered convection along the occluded front over east central PA this afternoon and early evening. Low-level convergence along the front and large-scale ascent associated with the 500mb low will combine with 500-1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, robust deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates to support a marginal wind damage/hail threat. Although PWs are on the decline, locally heavy north-south training downpours on low FFGs will also support the potential for isolated instances of flooding especially in areas where soils have been substantially saturated. Trailing shortwave energy on the backside of the departing upper low should maintain showers into tonight particularly over the southern tier of CPA before POPs gradually decrease into early Wednesday morning. Highs will be +/- 5 degrees either side of early May climo with cooler conditions (60-65F maxT) in the western Alleghenies and milder temps (65-75F) throughout the Susquehanna Valley or ahead of the occluded front. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A brief respite or lull in the frequent rain showers is expected into midweek as the upper low continues to pull away from the region. We still can`t rule out a few showers especially across the northern mtns Wednesday PM - but on the margin it should be drier vs. recent days. Highs trend a bit warmer on balance with daytime maxes in the 65-75F range. The lull in the precip will be short-lived with yet another upper trough fcst to close off over PA by Thursday night. Rain showers and a few t-storms are likely Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with ensemble data placing max POPs across the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Temp trends for Thursday should be flat to down day over day with the most noticeable change in the northern tier with highs falling back into the 50s followed by mins in the 35-40F range Thursday night. The full discussion is in the link. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

I'm still getting bouts of light rain but this is probably the last gasp until we destabilize again later today.

Its still trying to train some up.

Hence, the disclaimer. I now realize that the soundings were actually observed at 12:00am and 12:00 pm, which is crazy to me. I have been adding 5 hours to account for central time zulu, so I thought that the soundings were taken at 5am and 5pm. Now it all makes sense, I think. lol

Idk ? Any help?

Anyways looking nice down stream .

Something definitely doesn't make sense to me. I snapped the top sounding this morning but I see IAD is at 72℉ now and was actually 66℉ this morning. I do struggle with utc . Maybe I got my times backwards.

I also love my mistakes corrected in a civil manner. Be a dick get a dick has always been my philosophy.

Once again, I'm not claiming to be anything close to Ace, but I enjoy pretending, lol. To my amateur eye, IAD just needed a little more veering to the north in the mid to upper levels and a little cooling above 250mb, and IAD would have had some sig hail issues today . Unfortunately, the latest sounding for IAD has lost most of its juju and really narrowed the cape field down to a sliver. Im assuming the warming above 225mb and those little inversions from about 675mb down to 950mb are a marine layer and to blame . I realize we are not in Baltimore, but it's the closest observed sounding I know of to practice with. I'm not ruling out any thunderstorms or rain this evening just pointing out something I noticed at IAD.

It may be nuts for some, but It really is all about the angle in the dangle today.

We are only marginal in terms of risk today but here's is spc take on today. ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... Recent surface observations reveal a residual front/marine boundary draped from eastern VA into the eastern Carolinas. East of this boundary, richer low-level moisture in the form of low to mid-60s dewpoints is noted extending northward into southeast PA. Aloft, an embedded shortwave orbiting around the primary upper low is noted over the mid-MS River Valley in recent water-vapor imagery. This feature is expected to pivot into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians through the afternoon/evening and will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region into NC. Further to the northwest, lift ahead of the embedded shortwave combined with cold mid-level temperatures should promote thunderstorm development across WV and OH by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Similar thermodynamic and kinematic environments were observed yesterday across the region, and yielded isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells

Hrrr seams wonky and super over doning today's convective evaluation by basically covering 90% of the state in thunderstorms, but dose eventually get around late in its range to something that looks slightly realistic posted below. It eventually brings the line along the Mason Dixon into CPA. When I looked at it a few hours ago, it had the idea of traing storms from Lancaster to Warren County starting around 4:30.

It's worth reading fellows. I'm excited about today and tonight. I hope last night is an indicator of where storms may start training today. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 501 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Slow moving, training showers and PM thunderstorms will lead to localized heavy rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches with the potential for small stream and poor drainage flooding in a few locations across Central Pennsylvania and the Western Mtns. *Becoming drier late in the week with a trend toward below normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A quasi-stnry front stretched about 25 NM either side of Interstate 80 (along its entire length through PA) has helped to strengthen several narrow bands of showers overnight as they drifted NNW over the boundary that provided some enhanced MESO-B lift. As we head through the late morring and into the afternoon hours, the focus for the most numerous bands of convection and threat for heaviest rain and localized severe weather will be across the approx SW 1/2 of the CWA today as 2 separate mid/upper level jet maxes/lobes of differential vort lift north across the Western and Central Mtns. Slightly lower probs for severe weather and training heavy SHRA/TSRA exist across the Middle Susq Valley and Endless Mtns region NE of KIPT. The first of the aforementioned kinematic features aloft will be the enhanced lift/focus for the initial TSRA beneath the right entrance region of a upper level speed max stretched from KPIT to KCLE late this morning through early this afternoon, followed by a link with meso-B uvvel beneath the left exit region of another southerly jet segment drifting north across VA and the MD Panhandle toward evening. A distinct channel of enhanced (deep and somewhat thin) CAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG will exist between RT 219 in the Western Mtns and RT 15 north through the Susq Valley. Later shifts will need to keep a close eye on the evolution of convection and training cells within this part of the CWA (which covered by WPC`s MRGL risk of excessive rain), as PWAT values will be just under 1.5 inches coinciding with soundings that indicate a deep, moist, warm cloud layer up through 11-13 kft agl leading to highly efficient rainfall production. A short- fused Flood Watch may need to be collaborated/issued at some point later this morning/afternoon. Max temps will display a small range today (only about 5-6 deg F) from the upper 60s to low 70s. A few spots throughout Scent PA could see a 74 or 75F this afternoon. SPC maintains a MRGL risk for stronger updrafts containing 1 inch hail and locally damaging wind gusts. As noted by earlier shifts, although not outlooked for tornadoes, a brief, weak tornado can not be ruled out given the low LCLs and sufficient veering/moderately strong llvl speed shear within the wind profile at low levels. Convection may be slow to wane tonight, with both the NAM and HRRR showing potential for narrow swaths of 1-2" of rain falling from mature convective lines and clusters in just the 12 hour period from 00z-12z Tue. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Active weather will likely continue Tuesday/Tuesday evening as the core of the upper low moves into western PA. This will push the highest instability and greatest chance for severe weather east into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The threat for severe weather appears to decrease Wednesday as the slow moving upper low gradually fills in and the center moves across the Eastern Third of the state in the afternoon, with precip likely coming to an end across the bulk of Central PA by Wed evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... By the latter half of the week, the upper low will be replaced by a fairly potent upper trough as high pressure builds in at the surface. Much lower PWATs (0.25 - 0.75") will usher in a stretch of cooler and less-rainy conditions for the weekend. Cool temps aloft will keep a chance for diurnal showers in the forecast each afternoon, but ensemble mean rainfall for the period is less than a quarter inch across the whole area. High pressure amidst a cooler airmass will support a risk for frost Friday and Saturday morning, especially west of I-99 and north of I-80. The growing season is currently active for only the counties along/east of I-99 and along/south of I-80, but as we approach the median date of the first freeze for much of the Laurel Highlands and northwest mountains (May 11th), Frost/Freeze products may be needed there later this week. After the brief cool snap Thursday night through Friday night, ensembles favor a return to near normal temperatures with highs in the 60s to 70s and lows in the 40s to 50s

I only got a little drizzle yesterday but around 1:30am this morning this slow moving precipitation cell set up perfectly centered over my neighborhood and gave me a very nice steady rain for at least fifty minutes. It looks like Harrisburg is doing well now to from this slow mover.

Observed is probably the wrong word. I would imagine models fill in the gaps of observations or Vice versa.

It just merged with the larger cell to the west before it could really get its act together.

The small cell that just left south east York County and enterd Lancaster is showing possible rotation.

Right wrong or somewhere in between I'm gland it was brought up . It's cool to watch the different storm modes occurring within there observed environments.

The rotatiing cell that was about to head into Lancaster was in the area of higher helicity values. That right hand turn I'm sure was aided by storm relative helicity.

The only thing I can personally say for certain is top water Bass is off the charts atm and im at work. .

I'm certainly no ace on the meso analysis but I'm not seeing any storm relative helicity off the charts over harrisburg but LNS dose have higher values atm.