Yardstickgozinya

Loving my gear. I've been outside since the flake started falling I'm dry and toasty, my snowsuit shell is almost like being in the cab of a vehicle in my marino, wool under layers are doing what marino wool does.

Down here at I83 lewisberry Rd exit 35. Yeah, thank God there's barely anybody out, but there are a few brave souls. The interstate definitely has a nice layer compacted snow, so you know, it's slick down there.

Sideway snows out here a few minutes ago. fellas . 114 Lewisberry road Fairview township. I,m Pushing past my house to check out I I83 at exit 35 Lewisbury road then grabbing myself a chocolate milk and chili cheese dog from Rutters.

I got my wish about halfway through my walk. Heavy snow and beautiful

I definitely underestimated the amount of snow once I walked out away from my buddy's house and got on to the road. There. was probably closer to or just slightly over 1" when I left his house. I've stopped to breather and post under the overhang at phat boy's pizza. Light snow at the moment.Hopefully things pick up.I was hoping for a challenge tonight and to finally test out this storm gear I bought seven years ago.

Very nice moderate snow here. Somewhere around a half inch. Heading out from my track home from lisburn, back to home. Good luck fellows, Stay safe.

First flakes here in lisburn, 1:11 AM

@SnowPlowGuy88Sorry man , I'm in Lisburn atm so I can't just go look but I think my neighbor owns Lawn Doctor. I see Gran U Lawn so much when I'm in Meddeow View working I think it's got me messed up. Nevertheless I live in Timber Ridge

Hopefully @Eskimo Joe post about the warm layer, he just made a few minutes ago over in the MA verifies all through the mid atlantic and northeast.

It's funny.I was thinking about what old snownuts was saying about the 50/50 low when looking over the geo satellite . It reminds me of an old school WWF Match . In one corner, we have Baja Bowling ball and his sidekick Gorilla Juice on the other side we have Mr. Arctic,but unfortunately his sidekick 50/50 is mia out banging Mr Arctic's wife.

I noticed the conversations yesterday on the thunder snow in the south. I've never seen videos from the guy above, but he seems pretty legit. He also covered the thunder snow extensively, if anybody wants to watch the video I posted above. Although it's a few model runs old, there's still some good info in there.

It's several hours old now but I have a video that i'm going to post for you . Guy does a good job of sharing how it could happen.

I posted a picture this morning of the air mass descending. It looked quite impressive

My best buddy in lLisburn is a a topo junkie too. Check out Topo ranger on youtube. He's just a geo weenie that goes around to different local sites of geographic importance. I enjoy his videos, especially on the lower Susquehanna.

@Mount Joy Snowman.Maybe you didn't realize the proximity fused thing was my light, harted way of me asking you a question. What's your plans with my elevation or were you just more or less just curious ?

Proximity fuse settings ?

I find it interesting that nws did not update their forecast discussion yet this morning, This is unusually late. Waiting on additional data is my guess.

This is where I start getting giddy, quantifiable images. The gods are bowling

She's starting to come together.

Well, I'm not trying to be a dick, buddy. but a lot of these guys here aren't going to take kindly to the back and forth between me and you with a event of this nature coming into the short range. I don't know exactly what defines a blizzard but at this point the national weather service is either not seeing or are anticipating we meet the criteria. Furthermore if they are going to put out a blizzard warning, they have to be confident that they know where the criteria will be met. Once that's pinned down., maybe we'll see something like that somewhere. As far as duration no one can give you an accurate answer on that yet with this particular storm.

I decided to go ahead and post the rest of the the discussion I'm thinking some of you fellas might like it archived here. Now if you really enjoy meteorology and want to know *why* we are predicting the most significant accumulations in the past 5+ years, feel free to read on through the remainder of this KEY MESSAGE 2 discussion. We`ve had our fair share of cold snaps this winter season, and tomorrow (Friday) will be no exception after the next Arctic front pushes through. A large factor driving all this cold weather has been the Polar Vortex displaced from the North Pole, with a tendency for the vortex to find itself over Hudson Bay and northern Quebec. With displacement that far south, we`ve gotten plenty of cold air, but it`s also nudged the storm track south of our area for many of the recent events. If you`ve ever heard people say "it`s too cold to snow", it`s not that it`s physically too cold to snow, it usually just means that the storm track has shifted far enough to the south that we end up under dry high pressure while our temps are cold. One key difference this time is the influence of a Pacific storm, located off the coast of southern California this evening, and a strengthening subtropical jet to its south. Over the next 24 hours these features will cross the Baja Peninsula of Mexico and then into Texas. Southwesterly flow out ahead of this southern stream feature will pump warmer air into the Gulf Coast and Southeastern US Saturday night into Sunday. At the same time, a northern stream shortwave trough coming down from western Canada into the Great Plains will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to the back side of the northern longwave trough. The increasing temperature gradients will result in an overall increase in wind speed aloft at jet stream altitude, and an amplification of the northern stream trough and ridge. By Sunday, the right entrance region of the northern jet and the left exit region of the southern jet will align to produce enhanced upward motion through the troposphere. Remaining uncertainty in the forecast largely depends on the degree of phasing of these two jets, the angle at which they align, and how much amplification there is of the ridge out ahead of the deepening trough. The very cold air in place ahead of this system also plays other crucial roles to increase impacts. At 00Z Sunday, model consensus depicts a 1040+ mb high over New York State, which only slowly moves northeastward across New England over the next 24 hours. The deep, cold blocking high to the northeast of a winter storm is a textbook feature that supplies a stream of cold air down the Alleghenies and provides a cold dome for warmer, less dense air parcels streaming in from the southwest to ascend over. That upward motion is key to production of hydrometeors - in this case snow. And then there is the key role that cold temperatures have on ice crystal habits. The so called "dendritic growth zone" exists where temperatures are between roughly 0F and 10F. Given low temperatures Saturday night in the single digits, some spots might start off with a DGZ that extends from the ground up 10,000 to 15,000 feet which is pretty remarkable for a large synoptic storm in this region. As long as the column saturates quickly enough, any snow that falls late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning could be very high ratio, fluffy, rapidly accumulating snow that consists of many pristine dendrites (SLRs 15-20:1, could be even higher if the column saturates faster but there is dry air at low levels to overcome at onset). So after a few hours of virga, accumulations have the potential to begin with a vengeance in the predawn hours Sunday, especially from I-80 south. KEY MESSAGE 3: Arctic blast persists with frigid temperatures and subzero wind chills expected next Monday all the way through next weekend. A prolonged stretch of frigid temperatures continues next week through the end of January (next weekend). After the cold snap Fri night - Sat, the next round of cold wx headlines (-10 to -20F wind chills) is likely Monday night through Tuesday morning. Given the prolonged nature of the bitter cold, we may begin to see more infrastructure impacts (frozen pipes) by next week. Occasional lake effect/upslope snow showers are likely next week under a very cold cyclonic flow aloft.

Another forecast discussion should be available in about an 1.5 hours, but I still feel this was a pretty interesting read, with a lot more explanation then generally seen. It's a very lengthy discussion, so I only posted part of it here, the rest will be in the link if anybody wants to read it before the next update. 436 FXUS61 KCTP 230420 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1120 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increasing chances for heavy snow this weekend. More details provided in discussion section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills expand from northwest to southeast Friday afternoon into Saturday morning 2) Increasing odds for double digit heavy snow accumulation and widespread moderate to major winter storm impacts Saturday night through Monday morning, heaviest on Sunday. 3) Arctic blast persists with frigid temperatures and subzero wind chills expected next Monday all the way through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills expand from northwest to southeast Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.Arctic air is poised to return to the forecast area - filtering in from northwest to southeast through Friday night. High confidence in -10 to -20F wind chills across all of central PA Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning approaching extreme cold criteria in the Laurel Highlands. Frigid Arctic air will remain in place prior to the onset of the significant winter storm this weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing odds for double digit heavy snow accumulation and widespread moderate to major winter storm impacts Saturday night through Monday morning, heaviest on Sunday. Snow accumulations will likely begin with a vengeance from south to north in the predawn hours Sunday. Periods with snowfall rates greater than 1 inch per hour are becoming increasingly likely in the isentropic ascent early Sunday and as low and midlevel frontogenesis becomes stronger later in the day and evening. Given the dry, fluffy snow and wind gusts of 15-30 mph, there will likely be some blowing and drifting. There could be a period of sleet especially across the southern tier Sunday evening cutting into snow totals just a bit, but not before double digit accumulations are expected to fall.While warm advective, front-end snow is becoming increasingly likely, there is considerable model uncertainty with the placement of a comma head area of snowfall as a secondary low pressure system develops offshore (in a Miller B type evolution). If the comma head sits over central PA Sunday night, several additional inches of accumulation are possible. However, if it misses us to the north and we see more of a dry slot, that would result in snow ending sooner Sunday evening with less accumulation overnight. All in all, the probability of snowfall amounts exceeding 12inches has increased to 60-80 percent across much of central PA. The probability of more than 18 inches ranges from 15 to 40 percent. Amounts near 24 inches can`t be ruled out (10 percent chance) especially if the comma head sits over central PA Sunday night. Always prepare for the worst case scenario and continue to check the forecast as it evolves. Now is the time to prepare. Think snow blowers, re-arranging travel plans to avoid travel during the storm, what to do in case of a power outage, etc. Remember it will be very cold before, during and after the storm. Never run a generator indoors due to carbon monoxide. Now if you really enjoy meteorology and want to know *why* we are predicting the most significant accumulations. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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