Yardstickgozinya

Western and West central Pa. At this time seems to be the area of best increasing indices and overlap.. We still have work to do here in immediate cpa There's still plenty of time and as mentioned, the enhanced parameters are advecting east. At this moment in time I would have to say that west central and western pa, seem to be the place of best interest ,but that can certainly change as the day progresses.

Where has @Itstrainingtimebeen . It's been well over twenty four hours since he's made a post.

I was just looking at some of the meso scale parameters, myself, I was quite surprised to find thermo dynamic fields were still quite meager to non existent, at this hour, however some instability and a few other meso scale enhancements appear to be advecting into our area from the west as I write this . Kinematic fields are definitely starting to show some enhanced parameters.

A good chunk of Pa. has been Upgrade to enhanced, at first glance it doesn't appear that the tornado threat has increased, but both hail and wind threats ,have increased significantly . Both are at 30% probabilities ,level 1 hatching for all of cpa west of the Susquehanna river. Apparently, a level one 1 hatching indicates there could be hail over 2" in diameter and winds in excess of 74mph if Ai is feeding me information correctly. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

I would get your cameras ready today, fellas,some of cells are probably going to be quite photogenic compare to what we're used in our area. Especially early in their evolution. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a rare lp supercell or two in cpa today. Spc update last night mentiond two rounds of storms. Round one will be a cellular and probably will remain so for quite some time today with a line of storms possible tonight. Both rounds have potential for large hail. If we can get enough breaks in the sun today, destabilization could generously increase our tornado risk . We also have a week cap in place to help get that gun loaded. All in all today really seems the have a wide spectrum of potential . My guess is, there's going to be one or two epically, nasty cells track through central pennsylvania this afternoon with several other potentially strong to severe storms into the early night time hours. Watch your left cell splits for the big hail today and stay safe. Today, definitely could be our biggest severe day yet in our general area.

Nws forcast discussion only concerning today's thunderstorms. Full discussion.is in the link at the bottom. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 348 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-230800- Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 348 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. HAS CHANGED... * Little change in Sunday`s severe thunderstorm potential, built out more details pertaining to timing and threats. * Added mentions of icing potential Monday morning with dropping temperatures and freezing rain/drizzle potential across the Poconos. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening across much of central Pennsylvania, highest chances south of the I-80 corridor. 2) Some icing potential Sunday night into Monday morning across portions of NE PA, slick spots possible for the Monday morning commute. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening across much of central Pennsylvania, highest chances south of the I-80 corridor. Severe threat will be in play across much of central PA this afternoon and evening, with surface dewpoints across western Indiana surging towards the region. Recent HREF model guidance continues to indicate favorable probabilities (generally between 50-70%) for surface dewpoints reaching into the mid-to-upper 50s this afternoon for regions south of I-80. Bulk wind shear across the entire area by this time will also markedly increase which would support thunderstorm development to become organized enough to sustain themselves this afternoon/evening. There does remain some uncertainty with respect to CAPE with some recent hi-res model guidance indicating some breaks in the clouds across south-central Pennsylvania during the afternoon hours. If these solutions begin to pan out, this will allow for an uptick in instability, which would increase the severe threat. For reference, model solutions on the lower end of CAPE values top out between 500-600 J/kg while higher-end solutions of CAPE values exceed 1000 J/kg and push closer to the 1500 J/kg mark which would be much more sufficient for severe weather potential this afternoon. The spread is most pronounced across western portions of the forecast area, which is where model guidance is the most uncertain with respect to cloud cover later today. All of that being said, SPC has continued with the slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening for areas south of the I-80 corridor. Damaging wind threat continues to highlight areas mainly south of I-80 where there is there remains some higher potential for instability with ample shear in place. Fact cell movement will also give ample convective and kinematic energy to support the damaging wind threat this afternoon and into the evening. The hail threat across the southern half of Pennsylvania bears watching, with steep (7-7.5 C/km) 700-500mb lapse rates continuing to be signaled in recent hi-res model guidance. Large hail will be possible, as SPC outlines with their CIG1 hatching across the southern half of Pennsylvania. These hazards are expected to be focused in the 2PM to 9PM timeframe today, gradually spreading north-to-south throughout the afternoon and evening hours. In terms of the tornado threat across the region, there remains a non-zero threat across portions south of I-80. This threat is not as robust as the wind/hail threat. One of the main negatives with respect to the tornado threat read out in looking at model guidance for LCLs this afternoon. LCLs look to be relatively high with recent RAP model guidance indicating LCLs between 2000-3000m across the southern half of the region. The higher cloud bases will make it slightly harder (not impossible) to form, especially with low-level dry air in place. Lastly, flooding concerns given some locations have pushed slightly above one inch storm total rainfall amounts with more localized pockets of heavy rainfall. Highest rainfall signals appear across the southern tier, where recent Drought Monitor continues with D1-D2 drought. FFGs in this area would likely need to be exceeded in the one-hour timeframe, where we`re looking at slightly below one inch to exceed guidance. Given this, not foreseeing a lot of hydrological issues with this system especially given quick movement of storms. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Seeing that, I was handing out bro flowers to dudes I never met yesterday may constitute a reevaluation of my lonely years statement. I'm also realizing I just wasted a lot of time and space just to say you're d***** if you do, and you're d***** if you don't.

I really hope you can find some type of balance, and peace through it.. Not saying any of this should or or will be your fate, because you're already married . I often ponder, which one is worse. You could sit around over indulging in sadness with the wheels constantly turning, knowing that your most likely never going know what it's like to be married and going to die alone., and the only woman that truly ever loved you was your mother. Then, I ponder, what if you did get married and god forbid it ended up being your son's insane mother. I haven't got into the lonely years in life yet, but I have a feeling they're really going to suck. Hopefully this helps provide another perspective without making things any worse. As far as the the weather getting you down ,i'm fairly confident my advice would not be met with high regard.

Basically expanded to include most of the state. From what I gather, severe storms will be quite isolated , but carry the risk of large hail up to the size of golf balls. Spc added that they may need to add a elevated tornado risk to the outlook. Main bust threat is lack of moisture return. Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage for the late afternoon and evening, but are expected to be more elevated at that point. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Hail sig hatching level 1 Tornado probability 2%

I had to edit my above post. For some reason, I woke up thinking this was Sunday. lol

Nws take on Sunday's severe weather threat. Unfortunately, hail along with a damaging wind threat seems to be the main threat Sunday, for those of us near and in the corridor of slight risk according to the nws Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 502 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Dense Fog Advisory for a portion of east-central PA until 8AM Severe thunderstorm risk level increased from 1 to 2 for Sunday over south central PA && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Low visibility in dense fog could make driving hazardous early this morning across portions of east-central PA 2) First weekend of Spring warmup precedes rain and severe thunderstorm risk Sunday afternoon into Sunday night && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Low visibility in dense fog could make driving hazardous early this morning across portions of east-central PA Temporary clearing in the wake of yesterdays rainfall has resulted in patchy to locally dense fog formation across portions of east central PA. Visibility trends have been improving on the margin upon the arrival of lower cloud deck continuing to expand southeastward per IR satellite imagery. Coordinated with PHI on issuance of DFA until 8AM with several ASOS and RWIS sites reporting visby below 1000ft or <1/4 mile. KEY MESSAGE 2: First weekend of Spring warmup precedes rain and severe thunderstorm risk Sunday afternoon into Sunday night A nice start to Spring this weekend with fcst highs ramping 15 to 30F above the historical average by Sunday. This surge of warmth will be brief and followed by a noticeable cooldown on Monday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower than Sunday. SPC expanded the level 2/slight risk outlook from the Upper Ohio Valley into south central PA (south of I-80) for Sunday afternoon and evening. CAPE and 0-6km shear profiles appear rather favorable for organized severe storms ahead of a southeastward advancing cold front. Large hail probs are relatively high with 700-500mb lapse rates 7-7.5 C/km and essentially match the damaging wind probs.

@Jns2183 are you aware of anything I can use to open these files on my cellphone ?

Slight risk extended well into Central Pa. There's no written mention in their outlook about what they expect in our area. Nws did update their discussion at 1:45am, but that discussion still said that the Spc was painting a marginal risk ,1 out of 5 through most of central Pa. However, you can clearly see that Spc expanded the slighg risk into cpa in there 1:01am update, so I decided not to post the latest nws forecast discussion. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Hail outlook ,sig hatching level 1 Tornado probability 2%

I'm not sure if you two particular fellows we'll see this in time. I shit you not , I was thinking about both of you after I posted . That's a bro flower and I wanted both the you handsome fellas to have it. She's right around the corner.

The point that I was trying to make, in my above post that got lost was, that if we get ample storms, that will give me plenty of opportunities to test the live stream. I've had a lot of trouble with work injuries trying to get back into the swing this year, one more lumbar injury and i'll be streaming myself working 3rd and Walnut for gas and copenhagen.

I hope so, nothing destructive of course. Starting over the next few weeks i'm going to be posting links to live streams whenever I have the opportunity to stream adverse, interesting, beautiful weather and wildlife. By the time winter rolls around I hope to have multiple cameras to set up with lighting, and feed for wildlife doring and after the storms. I'll also have a camera mounted to me for all my winter storm excursions. I realized that viewers from here, maybe quite limited, even non existent, but I just watched someone obtained 230,000 viewers hiccuping into a video camera, for twelve hours straight. It's actually just something I I've wanted to do for fun and have no intentions of gaining any profit sharing from youtube. I probably be running my first test late tonight . The link will just be to a camera looking out into my backyard.

Spc brings back the chance of some thunderstorms on sunday. Right now they have idea of deeper convection in far western pennsylvania. Hopefully plenty of sunshine breaks through Saturday and Sunday.for those of us who need it. SPRINGS BACK BABY !!! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

He's a mythical creature from south-central. pennsylvania. It only comes out of its hole during snow and thunderstorms, and can often be seen digging in mulch. 5'7" 190 lbs of smelly, harry, man beast. Like other hole dwelling primates, it seeks out psychoactive plants and you generally don't want to see it anywhere near your house. It's generally extremely friendly but can become highly aggressive when agitated. I highly recommend you don't shoot at it if you see it, that smelly basterds packing heat.

Then again, he predicted a snowstorm too

I'm not sure if you're familiar with the legendary., Punxsutawney Bill. He also made the same call.

This might be of particular interest for those of you that have plans tomorrow. As mentioned nothing severe this far East at this point, but some isolated week convection is apparently possible. Nws forecast discussion about tomorrow afternoon and evening thunderstorm risk. 913 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... *SPC has introduced a MRGL risk for severe thunderstorms across the Laurel Highlands and SW PA valid Friday afternoon and evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A broken line of thunderstorms across central and western PA is likely late Friday afternoon and into Friday evening, following a widespread light to moderate rain earlier in the day. 2) Cold frontal passage Sunday should make widespread rain showers perhaps ending as a brief period of snow across the north, followed by windy and colder temps on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... 1) A broken line of thunderstorms across central and western PA is likely late Friday afternoon and into Friday evening, following a more widespread light rain earlier in the day. A Clipper system embedded within strong mid and upper level flow will cross through the Great Lakes and into New York State on Friday. Isentropic ascent with PW values rising to near 0.75 inch will likely result in an area of stratiform light to moderate rain moving from NW to SE during the afternoon. As a cold front approaches during the evening hours, a broken line of showers (east) and thunderstorms (west) is expected to form on the back edge of the precip area, perhaps with a dry break between the two areas of rainfall. With 850 hPa flow between 30 and 40 kts and a few hundred Joules of MLCAPE, isolated severe wind gusts can not be ruled out particularly across the Laurels and points southwest. Total QPF is progged between 0.25 and 0.50 inch. High temps will end up about 10F milder than the previous day (49-63F across the CWA fm N to S)

SPC is advertising the slight chance of garden variety, thunderstorms in our area tomorrow, and some limited severe activity from the ohio valley into southwestern pennsylvania. They even had mention of a very slight tornado risk out that way. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

I didn't get to look at this until I got home from work this evening.Very interesting and well done. Extra interesting for me, because it's within my lifelong stomping grounds.

I'm pretty sure it brings me back to my days that a kid and the early years with my son catching frogs, turtles and tatpoles in the local wetlands.