Yardstickgozinya

There's still time for things to happen. The overlap of surface vorticity and cape that they spoke of yesterday looks to be in jeopardy, to me.

Funday Monday. Stay safe out there, fellas . - Remove Highlighting -- -- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. -- 430 FXUS61 KCTP 220840 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 440 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Level 2/5 severe T-storm risk expanded over the southern tier of central PA for this afternoon and evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are possible across the southern tier/third of central PA this afternoon and evening && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible across the southern tier/third of central PA this afternoon and evening Steady warm advection rain has expanded across the northern tier early this morning. This leading edge rain is likely tied to 850mb wind max downstream of dampening mid level shortwave trough/remnant MCV in the Ohio Valley. Hires guidance focuses mean QPF in the 0.50-0.75 inch range to the north of I-80 through 18Z with local rainfall amounts possibly exceeding 1 inch by early afternoon. Attention shifts to the south this afternoon and evening as a warm front will lift north of the MD line to a position somewhere between I-80 and US-22. Sfc dewpoints are projected to surge into the upper 60s to the south of the warm front where some cloud breaks should allow for at least modest destabilization. The moderately sheared and conditionally moist/unstable convective environment should promote scattered t-storm ignition into peak diurnal heating. The initial storm development is expected to evolve into forward propagating clusters with a strong to locally damaging wind threat. As convection intercepts the northward moving warm front over the southern tier of CPA, locally backed flow and more favorable low level shear may support the development of at least transient supercells with some tornado potential. SPC has expanded the level 2/5 slight risk to include the entire southern tier/third of CPA (areas near and south of US-22) along with corresponding severe wind and 2% tornado probs. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern with pwat values between 1.5 and 2 inches. This is around the 95th percentile for this time of year and would support intense rain rates perhaps as high as 2-3"/hr. A warm cloud depth in excess of 11,000 feet and tall, skinny CAPE profiles also support a heavy rain signal. WPC has maintained a level 2/4 slight risk for excessive rainfall (ERO) over roughly the southern third of the forecast area where isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible, particularly in training/repeat storms over urban areas. The two limiting factors going against a more considerable flash flood threat are the ongoing dryness/drought conditions focused over the LSV and fairly progressive storm motions. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&highlight=on&glossary=1

It's a 3cape day. The updated outlook should be available soon, but it seems like the days of consistency are over. ...Mid Atlantic into the Mid-South... A midlevel shortwave trough, including the remnant of a prominent MCV, is forecast to move from parts of the Upper OH Valley toward the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later today. While most guidance suggests some dampening of this shortwave trough with time, some flow enhancement will persist within the 850-500 mb layer in the wake of this shortwave across parts of the Mid Atlantic and central/southern Appalachians. Scattered storm development is expected by early/mid afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable environment. Initial development is expected to evolve into forward propagating storm clusters with a threat of damaging winds through the afternoon into the early evening. As convection intercepts a northward-moving warm front across the Mid Atlantic, locally backed flow may support development of at least transient supercells, with some tornado potential. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Wow, that sounds familiar. I am only speaking for myself here, but I actually had a bout of something similar about ten years prior that was much shorter in duration.. Looking back, I believe that both times I was dealing with a lot of anxiety. I really have no idea, though. Whatever it was, kept me nauseous 24/7 for well over 2 years. I would vomit at least three or four times a week. One of the other things about the whole ordeal that really p***** me off, is that the gastroentinologist also insisted that I had acid reflux and needed fundoplication . Being a much less invasive procedure, I went through with it. A few months after I had that done I develop chronic acid reflux and this time, I was sure of it, because unlike before the surgery, I actually felt like I had acid reflux. I only had it a few times in my life before that and it was from hot dogs every time. Looking back at it now I realize those sons of b****** took advantage of my health insurance. Not saying, that's what's happening to anybody else but that's surely what happened to me.

I went through some serious b*******, and I'd hate to see it happen to anybody else. Reclassification as Non-IBD IBD-related medications (namely, 5-aminosalicylates, thiopurines, corticosteroids, and anti-tumor necrosis factor [TNF]) were used in 55 of the 108 patients (50.9%) misdiagnosed with UC and in 80 of the 184 patients (43.5%) misdiagnosed with CD (Table 3) https://journals.lww.com/ajg/fulltext/2023/10001/s1033_misdiagnosis_of_inflammatory_bowel_disease_.1572.aspx

Yes, apparently, if the sun can break through, that'll be key in that possible evolution.

I can smell the rain , but I'm left high and dry at home so far. The ground was still wet when I left Mechanicsburg, but it was completely dry when I got home. I'm pretty sure that I heard one rumble of thunder while out in my shed about 25 minutes ago, but I didn't see any lightning and nothing was detected. Some rain before the wild raspberries start to abort and lightning bugs peak, sure as hell would be nice. Some of the main things that I grade my summer on are convection, heat, humidity, frogs, lightning bugs and raspberries all are in danger of being extremely lackluster, this summer, and it's really starting to f****** p*** me off.

Yup. No more rumbles of thunder here, but the west end of Mechanicsburg is getting another shower, just enough to get the ground wet.

Extremely light, it only lasted a couple minutes . Just heard my first two rumbles of thunder of the day, something off to my northwest right now.

Get a second and third opinion, especially if it doesn't run in the family. After nearly 2 years of extreme pain discomfort and weight loss, I too was diagnosed with severe Crohn's disease in 2002 . I was scheduled to get part of my intestines removed, but I was so fearful of the surgery that I didn't follow through. Fast forward a few months later, and I actually started to improve. I decided to see another gastroentinologist and they diagnosed me with chronic gastroparesis and told me that was probably the best that I was ever going to get. Fast forward a few months later and I was fully recovered, and I haven't had any problems since. I've shared this experience with several people over the years. Apparently Gastroenterologists misdiagnose a lot.

Light shower here in Mechanicsburg

Picking up some LEMP's on my am frequencies. Definitely things trying to happen to the north from my viewpoint here in mechanicsburg. Sorry for the reflection in the picture.

If nothing else, the cumulus out here are getting taller here this afternoon.

Nws initially had me extremely excited with there talk of an EML surging this far east out ahead of a potent system.. By the next morning, I was pretty sure they'd picked up the wrong pipe. It seemed to me that the NWS was much more bullish, with their forecast than the SPC. The spc definitely, seemed to use more cautious wording in their forecast and I don't believe they ever mentioned anything about an EML.

It's in the billing

When you enter this part of town in Mechanicsburg, they literally have a plaque that says you are entering the homes of the Upper Class. They put it up in 2020 when everybody else was struggling. In the twenty years, i've been working at this home I've never even seen it used. I've been trying to get them to fork me out some money for some upper class lawn care but apparently, a new Maserati comes out every month.

I bet he's feeling good about himself today.

Apparently there was a sasquatch. sighting in the neighborhood that I'm working in. They said that it's wearing an orange shirt and a black hat.I looked everywhere.I think these people are full of s***.

Hopefully, every thing turned out, okay with your friends. I was out catching bait with my son and didn't even peek at the radar yesterday. When I get home from work i'll look at storm paths and trajectories, but it doesn't seem like I was most likely looking at that cell.

That idea hinged on robust support from the mid levels to aid in that lift . I don't think they're so sure that that will even happen to be honest.

I'm pretty sure I took a picture of it sneaking by me In the rain from pinchot park.

Spc hasn't been too impressed either. The only one that has any mention of an EML surge has been NWS and they're still holding on to that in their discussion, although I expect changes are coming.

Light rain and thunder over head here at the beaver creek inlet at Pinchot park Edit for update Looks like I just got missed by something a little bette. Watched a couple forks come out of that lowering hiding in the rain.

Anyways, i've talked about this for several years and no one's ever really responded to it. But i've used LEMPs for years while i'm driving and working to know what's going on out there. Think of Cipher in the Matrix. Once you've listened long enough, you can make out the kind of stroke, whether or not it's getting closer and intensity. In the context of storms and meteorology, LEMPs stand for Lightning Electromagnetic Pulses. [1] They refer to the powerful, disruptive electromagnetic waves naturally radiated into the atmosphere during a lightning discharge. While they may not pose a physical shock risk to humans directly unless struck by lightning, they can induce dangerous power surges that damage or disrupt electronic devices and power grids. [1, 2, 4] Because lightning activity and cloud-to-ground strikes are a primary indicator of thunderstorm severity and structure, meteorologists utilize artificial intelligence and ground-based sensors to analyze LEMPs to understand a storm's behavior

Indeed A cell out there somewhere right now putting out some insane LEMPs. Tune in to an unused, a m frequency and listen you have to choose an a m.Frequency, that puts you between a tower and a storm. You'll know when you get there, you'll hear it.