Yardstickgozinya

Wpc has highlighted a marginal risk for excessive rainfall ,to include all but, South central and South eastern Pennsylvania. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

Nws forecast discussion concerning this evening and tonight's thunderstorms and potentially heavy rain. Highlight Changed Discussion -- 755 FXUS61 KCTP 260823 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 423 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Leaning warmer with max temperature forecast today * SPC severe t-storm and WPC excessive rain outlooks expanded && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Noticeable warmup today will precede rain and thunderstorms this evening followed by a chilly/raw cool down for the end of the week into the last weekend of March && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Noticeable warmup today will precede rain and thunderstorms this evening followed by a chilly/raw cool down for the end of the week into the last weekend of March Partly to mostly cloudy and relatively mild start today as south to southwest flow ramps up ahead of strong cold front moving southeast from the Lower Great Lakes. We still expect rain free conditions in most places to last into the afternoon (through 18Z) although can`t rule out a passing shower in the increasingly moist warm air advection pattern. Breaks in the clouds combined with the southwest breeze will support a very warm day relative to late March climo - with fcst max temps in the 65-75F range or +15-25 degrees above the historical average/within 5 degrees or so of daily record highs (see climate section). The aforementioned strong cold front will provide the primary forcing for a band of rain and thunderstorms to track from NW to SE across central PA this evening through tonight. SPC has extended the MRGL and SLGT risk convective outlooks farther eastward into western and central PA, however calibrated severe storm probs continue to focus the greatest hail/wind/tor risk in the Ohio Valley where CAPE and shear profiles are more insync. Influx of 1-1.5" pwats brings the prospect of locally heavy rainfall more into play and fcst QPF amounts have increased a bit particularly over southwest PA. It`s not clear how much fast movement and average soil moisture can be offset by training storms and orographics, but like the severe t-storm risk, the probability of runoff issues has increased on the margin and WPC will be monitoring for a targeted upgrade in the ERO. The highest rainfall totals are 1.50-2.00 inches in the Laurel Highlands.

Slight risk expanded into Western Pennsylvania Marginal Expanded well into central pennsylvania. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Some hassles dealing with keeping my debris tarp, open today, but all in all, not a bad spring day and afternoon for putting in some work.

I apologize if it's already been mentioned. Looks like many of us around the area could be racking up those rain totals tomorrow night.

https://www.tornadotalk.com/roundtop-ski-resort-pa-ef2-tornado-april-28-2011/ I was thinking about the last time I ever went to my basement. The same cell that dropped the F2 at Ski round top tracked directly over my home back on april 28 2011 right around 6:25am. It was one hell of a storm and it's the first and only time water filled up my window wells and flooded my basement. I just found this article, put together about it on tornado talk from 2021 With images and videos of the damage.

I certainly can't answer any of your questions about the science. What I can tell you, is thst you're absolutely correct In you're observations. I actually brought this up in one of my posts during a storm this year.. I'm sure some people were quite confused by my statement, because of its goes against everything we've been taught and told.

I use 20lb braid, tied off to a 15lb Fluorocarbon leader when i'm targeting Smallies.

Smallie fishings has made such a great comeback around here. Last year was epic. My son has really started on a heater this year. I never specifically targeted them until last year , and that was only when my buddy came home from Maui . Even though I never specifically targeted them , I used to routinely catch them while bait fishing until around 2010ish then i rarely caught any until maybe about 4 or 5 years ago . By Last year I couldn't quit catching them while bait fishing. I caught and lost several absolute pigs last year, and over my life because I only use 3 pound test while bait fishing. I

Its settled down here.. But it's been doing this on and off for a while, just not at that intensity, I'm going to live stream in case it does that again. That seemed to be the grand finale. If anything else should occur with intensity, I'll pop the live stream back up if I'm awake. All live stream post will be deleted after closure.

Those little blips mean business. As noted earlier, this stuff looked extremely saturated at the base, although not very tall. It's hammering down snow and sleet here.

It's been flurrying here since my initial post, About ten minutes ago, it switched over to sleet ,at a pretty moderate rate. It's still increasing in intensity.

Flurry's here at the moment.

I'm sitting in my truck in Mechanicsburg wrapping up some paperwork and there's a very snow squalish, low top convective look to the clouds out here. I'm not seeing any virga at this point..I love cold , but something about today made me consider laying my rake on the ground , tines up, and hopping on it ,hands behind my back.

A few stills from my live srteam test yesterday . I was live streaming for over 5 hours yesterday at not a single person here could tell me if my link, sound, video were working from the forum end. A little frustrating I must say, unless of course it wasn't working from this end, which for I have no g****** idea.

For the most part we ended up on the outside looking in. I think this is a pretty decent lightning event even for the Ohio Valley. Lots of talk about the duration and the sound of the thunder last night on the internet coming from out that way. I was really thinking that that would be us last night. Im dying for a lightning event like this.9

There's some severe risk on Thursday in the Upper Mississippi and Ohio valleys. Getting an expansion and shift this for east, is asking for a lot, but, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibilities considering the expansions, we've seen the last two weeks. Expansion/ shifts or not. It keeps up the pattern of early spring severe risk being displaced north and east.

I'll behave myself, but this made me think of Mama June. In all seriousness, if humanity makes it untill the end of the month, I think it's possible.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

The cell over Mclure has been a monster for some time. Still waiting on YouTube video and link confirmation from someone.

I refreshed my live stream link above . Its just rain and frogs on my pool cover . Would someone be kind enough to let me know the link, video, and sound is working on here? I don't have a working computer at the moment to look at my stream.

I finally got myself in good position and everything working. And everybody was gone. I'm under an overhang down the down the road at the moment I'll probably fire back up in case I catch any hail.

https://www.youtube.com/live/ydEenO_UG5A?si=JKjNbfU132g1fkL_ If everything's working properly, this should be a link to my live stream. This is the first time i've ever done this . This is a test. I'm actually walking to a area where I hopefully can get some decent views to my west and north. I doready to pick me up. Anyways, if somebody would please stop by and let me know that everything's working properly, that would be fantastic. Walking through Fairview township at the moment feel free to stop by anytime. Thank you so much. I will be interacting very little if at all. , I have a lot of other things to pay attention to at the moment. Live stream should be up in just a minute or two

Most of the area has achieved 1000jkg under a weak cap. The more enhance mid and low level lapses rates have built and move noth and east noticeably since @MAG5035 posted them.