Yardstickgozinya

I occasionally read lazy forecast discussions, from time to time, but this one really stands out, especially in it's extended. Full discussion is in the link below. 211 FXUS61 KCTP 010817 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 417 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Severe thunderstorm watch #83 has been cancelled && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Big temperature swings and periods of rain/thunderstorms continue through Easter weekend into the first full week of April && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Big temperature swings and periods of rain/thunderstorms continue through Easter weekend into the first full week of April At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be located from southern Indiana east-northeastward into southern Pennsylvania by the afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s F to the south of the front will contribute to weak instability. Increasing low-level convergence near the front and warming surface temperatures into the 70s should trigger scattered thunderstorms. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated strong to severe storms with potential for damaging wind gusts focused within west-east corridor to the south of I-80 to MD line. Periods of rain/showers continue tonight into Thursday morning. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

I only included discussion specifically regarding localized threats. The full discussion is in the link below. No science to it, just a roll of the dice and some twisted intuition. I sense a convactive over achiever coming on today. Not that it will translate to today, but cpa had some decently, elevated parameters that went the waste yesterday . The cap fully eroded over most of the area by mid-afternoon, but a lack of forcing and meager mid-level's hindered any convective development. Although simple details, I think frontal timing and orientation are conducive to localize overachievement, especially if the sun can get that surface baked for us cpa southernish. SPC AC 010548 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the eastern U.S. today. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be located in the Ohio Valley from southern Indiana east-northeastward into far southern Pennsylvania. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s F to the south of the front will contribute to weak instability by early afternoon. Increasing low-level convergence near the front and warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Several short line segments are expected to form and move eastward across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated severe storms with potential for damaging wind gusts. A low-end tornado threat will also be possible. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

I edited this post to reflect the most recently updated forecast discussion and conserve space. Nws originally stated that the chance for severe thunderstorms had increased through most of central Pennsylvania today. However there latest discussion is much more in line with the Spc convective forecast. Hopefully later tonight brings a couple rumbles of thunder, along with some more improvement in the rainfall deficit for many places throughout the area. 920 FXUS61 KCTP 310824 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 424 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... *Minimal changes since the last discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe thunderstorms possible today, mainly across the northwest. 2) Very warm temperatures continue through the weekend, although a backdoor cold front will likely bring cooler temps across eastern zones Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe thunderstorms possible today, mainly across the northwest. As of 0330 AM Tue, central PA is mainly dry with earlier batch of showers and thundershowers moving out of Sullivan Co. Looking upstream, there are a few clusters of convection over the Great Lakes region. The first is a decaying MCV across southern Michigan. Over the past couple hours, it lost all of its lightning and heavier precip. If it maintains steady state motion and intensity, it will arrive in Warren County by 0630 AM with nothing more than light rain. The second convective cluster is to the north of the aforementioned MCV. This cluster is much more electrically active, but it is tracking to the east and will likely stay north of the PA NY border for the time being. However if this cluster develops more of a flanking line of convection on its south side, it would probably move into our NW zones between 0730 and 0800 AM. A third cluster of convection is located just west of Chicago. This convection is also showing signs of weakening lately, but its remnants would most likely be over our NW zones by mid afternoon. Model soundings show a capping inversion and just 200-500 J/kg of MLCAPE through this afternoon, so currently not expecting much intensification of convection as it moves in from upstream. However there is a noticeable uptick in instability progged for the evening hours (5-11 PM). The HREF shows temperatures in the mid 60s-70s, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, and surface- based CAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range during this timeframe. 0-6km bulk shear of 30 to 45 knots will be supportive of organized convection. Model hodographs show decent curvature in the low levels, with 0-3 KM SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat with these storms, but a conditional hail and tornado threat is not off the table especially with any discrete cells. SPC continues the slight risk over the northern half of Central PA, with the highest probabilities of thunder in the NW. As a slow moving cold front approaches NW PA Tuesday night, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely to ride along it. With instability decreasing by midnight, these storms will gradually weaken. Main concern may transition to a heavy rainfall threat for any training heavy precip. Isolated flash flooding may become possible, but as of right now the threat is too low to include any of our counties in a Flood Watch (there is one up for much of western New York State). The cold front will inch southward across Central PA on Wednesday, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms to the region. With the front dividing the area, high temps will range from the mid 50s in the northern tier to the mid 70s across the south. SPC draws a MRGL risk for severe weather south of Interstate 80. KEY MESSAGE 2: Very warm temperatures continue through the weekend, although a backdoor cold front will likely bring cooler temps across eastern zones Thursday. There is fairly large spread in model guidance for temperatures on Thursday. For Harrisburg as an example, the interquartile range for high temps from the NBM is 59-74F. Some guidance (NAM) even keeps highs in the 40s. Much of the uncertainty traces back to limited predictability with respect to the placement of a backdoor cold front. Don`t be surprised if we end up with temps in the 40s and 50s with low clouds, drizzle, and patchy fog across our eastern zones Thursday. The cool weather does look to be limited just to Thursday. By Friday the front lifts north as a warm front and model guidance is more tightly clustered showing temps in the 70s areawide. Warm weather sticks around for the weekend before a cold front moves through later Sunday knocking temps back down for Monday.

Why wait until Wednesday. Later today and tonight looks like it's worth keeping an eye on for at least some thunderstorms in the area. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Wednesday is worth keeping an eye on. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

I haven't given my grade yet. We are now at the point where that'll have negative agricultural impacts, but I'll enjoy it , if and while it's happening.

I can smell and feel some cooled crispy stuff making it down to the ground as I wrap up work. It smells like it's gonna get extrs chilly tonight.

Although, none of them we're detected, there was several strokes of lightning very close to my home over the course of a couple minutes last night. I believe that little area of deeper convection may have been the difference maker.

I finally got myself some rain gauges. I did quite well for this. My wor buckets, debris cans , rain gages and nws estimated storm total all align. Well over 1" here for me.

Hope cherry picked from the nws forecast discussion . As we head into next week, all model signals point to aresurgence of Spring warmth to close out the month and kick off April. An anomalous ridge of high pressure will shift from the western US to the east coast and bring a prolonged stretch of southwesterly flow. This will support temperatures in the 60s and 70s for the middle of next week. As the western US ridge is replaced by a deep trough, severe weather chances will increase across the Plains. This will lead to a resurgence of moisture and a fairly active/rainy/stormy pattern in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic through Easter weekend. Warm & wet looks like the theme for Central PA for the first couple weeks of April. Spring growth should commence with haste over the next few weeks.

Just as I hit enter on my last post,several rembles of thunder before I could even get this one off.

Nice, steady rain here, of varying intensities for the nearly an hour. No thunder so far or strokes being detected anywhere close to my home .

It's funny, I was actually thinking about including your name in the post because, I realized we've been on the same level atleat in the terms of this topic. But then I figured I better not speak for @Itstrainingtime. There has been days i've gotten up and to check, and it's been scaled back.But it's very few and far between and it's generally done in the early morning update.

I think most of us realize expansion this time of year is many times the likely outcome . I wonder if anybody here could figure out the likelihood of spc expansions versus, reduction versus a consistent forecast in the final 24 and 8 hours before zero hour.

Wpc has highlighted a marginal risk for excessive rainfall ,to include all but, South central and South eastern Pennsylvania. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

Nws forecast discussion concerning this evening and tonight's thunderstorms and potentially heavy rain. Highlight Changed Discussion -- 755 FXUS61 KCTP 260823 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 423 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Leaning warmer with max temperature forecast today * SPC severe t-storm and WPC excessive rain outlooks expanded && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Noticeable warmup today will precede rain and thunderstorms this evening followed by a chilly/raw cool down for the end of the week into the last weekend of March && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Noticeable warmup today will precede rain and thunderstorms this evening followed by a chilly/raw cool down for the end of the week into the last weekend of March Partly to mostly cloudy and relatively mild start today as south to southwest flow ramps up ahead of strong cold front moving southeast from the Lower Great Lakes. We still expect rain free conditions in most places to last into the afternoon (through 18Z) although can`t rule out a passing shower in the increasingly moist warm air advection pattern. Breaks in the clouds combined with the southwest breeze will support a very warm day relative to late March climo - with fcst max temps in the 65-75F range or +15-25 degrees above the historical average/within 5 degrees or so of daily record highs (see climate section). The aforementioned strong cold front will provide the primary forcing for a band of rain and thunderstorms to track from NW to SE across central PA this evening through tonight. SPC has extended the MRGL and SLGT risk convective outlooks farther eastward into western and central PA, however calibrated severe storm probs continue to focus the greatest hail/wind/tor risk in the Ohio Valley where CAPE and shear profiles are more insync. Influx of 1-1.5" pwats brings the prospect of locally heavy rainfall more into play and fcst QPF amounts have increased a bit particularly over southwest PA. It`s not clear how much fast movement and average soil moisture can be offset by training storms and orographics, but like the severe t-storm risk, the probability of runoff issues has increased on the margin and WPC will be monitoring for a targeted upgrade in the ERO. The highest rainfall totals are 1.50-2.00 inches in the Laurel Highlands.

Slight risk expanded into Western Pennsylvania Marginal Expanded well into central pennsylvania. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Some hassles dealing with keeping my debris tarp, open today, but all in all, not a bad spring day and afternoon for putting in some work.

I apologize if it's already been mentioned. Looks like many of us around the area could be racking up those rain totals tomorrow night.

https://www.tornadotalk.com/roundtop-ski-resort-pa-ef2-tornado-april-28-2011/ I was thinking about the last time I ever went to my basement. The same cell that dropped the F2 at Ski round top tracked directly over my home back on april 28 2011 right around 6:25am. It was one hell of a storm and it's the first and only time water filled up my window wells and flooded my basement. I just found this article, put together about it on tornado talk from 2021 With images and videos of the damage.

I certainly can't answer any of your questions about the science. What I can tell you, is thst you're absolutely correct In you're observations. I actually brought this up in one of my posts during a storm this year.. I'm sure some people were quite confused by my statement, because of its goes against everything we've been taught and told.

I use 20lb braid, tied off to a 15lb Fluorocarbon leader when i'm targeting Smallies.