Yardstickgozinya

Another forecast discussion should be available in about an 1.5 hours, but I still feel this was a pretty interesting read, with a lot more explanation then generally seen. It's a very lengthy discussion, so I only posted part of it here, the rest will be in the link if anybody wants to read it before the next update. 436 FXUS61 KCTP 230420 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1120 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increasing chances for heavy snow this weekend. More details provided in discussion section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills expand from northwest to southeast Friday afternoon into Saturday morning 2) Increasing odds for double digit heavy snow accumulation and widespread moderate to major winter storm impacts Saturday night through Monday morning, heaviest on Sunday. 3) Arctic blast persists with frigid temperatures and subzero wind chills expected next Monday all the way through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills expand from northwest to southeast Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.Arctic air is poised to return to the forecast area - filtering in from northwest to southeast through Friday night. High confidence in -10 to -20F wind chills across all of central PA Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning approaching extreme cold criteria in the Laurel Highlands. Frigid Arctic air will remain in place prior to the onset of the significant winter storm this weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing odds for double digit heavy snow accumulation and widespread moderate to major winter storm impacts Saturday night through Monday morning, heaviest on Sunday. Snow accumulations will likely begin with a vengeance from south to north in the predawn hours Sunday. Periods with snowfall rates greater than 1 inch per hour are becoming increasingly likely in the isentropic ascent early Sunday and as low and midlevel frontogenesis becomes stronger later in the day and evening. Given the dry, fluffy snow and wind gusts of 15-30 mph, there will likely be some blowing and drifting. There could be a period of sleet especially across the southern tier Sunday evening cutting into snow totals just a bit, but not before double digit accumulations are expected to fall.While warm advective, front-end snow is becoming increasingly likely, there is considerable model uncertainty with the placement of a comma head area of snowfall as a secondary low pressure system develops offshore (in a Miller B type evolution). If the comma head sits over central PA Sunday night, several additional inches of accumulation are possible. However, if it misses us to the north and we see more of a dry slot, that would result in snow ending sooner Sunday evening with less accumulation overnight. All in all, the probability of snowfall amounts exceeding 12inches has increased to 60-80 percent across much of central PA. The probability of more than 18 inches ranges from 15 to 40 percent. Amounts near 24 inches can`t be ruled out (10 percent chance) especially if the comma head sits over central PA Sunday night. Always prepare for the worst case scenario and continue to check the forecast as it evolves. Now is the time to prepare. Think snow blowers, re-arranging travel plans to avoid travel during the storm, what to do in case of a power outage, etc. Remember it will be very cold before, during and after the storm. Never run a generator indoors due to carbon monoxide. Now if you really enjoy meteorology and want to know *why* we are predicting the most significant accumulations. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Diddy lube.

To say that, I'm expecting a lot less than my 19.3 is an overstatement In reality, I'm still expecting an extremely nice to maybe even historic event.

My total I went with is a lot higher than my actual expectation. It's more of a gamble and what I want. This may be another controversial statement, but I would be perfectly happy with nineteen inches less than what I went with. That's how much I really love the snow man.

I do wanna correct what I said. I should have said mitigate accountability.

If I wanted to get the public to do my dirty work and negate, any accountability that's exactly how I would do it.

The bomb always in the long range has gotten a little suspicious for the last decade.

I'm sure I'll get my share of hot dogs for saying this. Maximizing revenue, boosting the economy it's a new world.You either hype s*** up or lose your viewership two boredom in a scrolling world. Basically, in other words one for social media dumb dumbs another for the hard core w***** like us and Mets. Makes perfect business sense when you think about.

That's awesome. As soon as you're leaving his home and making a left on to Tall Oak Dr, I'm right in front of you up there on the hill with the two small pickup trucks in the driveway.

583'

I live in Timberridge about a half mile from Fairview elementary school. . Not sure If you're familiar with the fellow that owns Gran U lawn, but I live right next door to him . I routinely. walk down to the Giant but it's not really considered walking distance by most people. I'll definitely be heading down to Rutters, but the storm will dictate when I eat, sleep, walk, and s***. I'll keep you posted buddy.

19.3 Might as well put it in the front page already. Are you going be in the area overnight, Sat, Sun , Mon

Hey let's make sure we're coming at the new members correctly so this can be a fun storm for everybody.

The floridians and their warm bias have corroded his mind, there's no saving him now.

Yeah, but they also said dream on

Yeah, I mean, the guys are right that warm air can be a b**** but really anyone's guess at this point .But yeah, i'm kind of riding that same crazy train as you. Although on my train sleet and pingers are the same thing.

Doesn't seem like anyone's going to answer. I had a thought that's most likely wrong but I'll throw it out there anyways. I was thinking that maybe because it's modeled and not actually sampled there's other data points influencing the best guess.

Don't forget, storms can also make their own.

As I was dropping some cold sandbags from my balloon and had a thought.. Generally, Im not a fan of depending on southern adjustment over the final 24 and go time, but I think this storm's going to do just that for the same reason that most of us thought this baby was getting suppressed. I'm not letting these model runs take me out of some of my original thinking. Well, at least i'm going use my original thinking to get my way.

I was really hoping somebody would come by with an explanation. If thats a zr sounding it makes me wonder what the hell I even learned the basics for.

Well if I ever decide to end it all, I know exactly how i'm going to do it. Yeah, f****** hot air balloon ride right into a Kocin-Uccellin . That's how f****** legends are made fellas.

F*** waiting. Temu's hot air balloon includes a handmade basket and torch, for only $49.99.

Yeah, yeah, man, it's cool. I'm not real hip on the evolution so thanks. I looked over some of the stuff that blizzard posted last night and it looks like it might have been throwing back some snow at us,so I guess that kind of image and wish is stuck in my head. And yeah, I realize if it's not tucked i'm not quite in the right spot for death banding..

I guess it Bern but whatever you get the point.