Yardstickgozinya

Hi Anduril . There is still a lot happening out there . Thermos might be meager but there is still a lot of dynamics at play . These storms have a good back side forcing mechanism to pick things up and put them down lol. So keep your guard up. good luck this eve

judging by the radar that cap down there has broken .

The Delmarva is ripe.

I see what some of you where talking about yesterday. Thunderstorms just initiated downs around Dc and are moving into better surface based cape of 1000-1500j/kg in the Delmarva region. The better thermos are down there way.

The cell over beaver valley looks like its be exhibiting some slight rotation through out its life.

Thermodynamics are much more mediocre than I expected to this point. low level lapse rates are quite steep so good wind to the ground is a good bet regardless of storm intensity.

This is a little behind, but You can just see the begging of new cloud tops popping and entering Ohio. There is little leftover energy down there in in norther Miss and AL. Most gets absorbed by the initial cold front but looks like a little is starting to make the turn towards the secodary .

I also just noticed there is a little energy lagging behind in northern Mississippi and Alabama that could link up with the secondary and come into play.

https://www.windy.com/40.216/-76.948?40.216,-76.866,5 Probaly not quite calm and it wont last long. Thunderstorms are starting to initiate along the secondary cold front now.

Yes I think there is enough spread and sun for some decent destabilization to occur before frontogenesis if I'm using the correct term lol. I see a second front on the surface map but not on radar yet just a slight appendage atm

I was looking at the infrared and water vapor about an hour ago and thought some good sun looks like a good bet today.

I,m in storm mode atm, and but I send you some good stuff when its over . If you ever around Shippensburg I highly recommend https://martinsproducesupplies.com/ . They are a true ag supply store unlike tractor supply co. and the Mennonites there a super knowledgeable and helpfull. https://www.fertrell.com/ in bainbridge is also a true Ag supply that is a great learning visit .

After this sorry ass stupid fukn winter this is already becoming way to much stimulus for me . I will need to remove myself from the forum until my dopamine and serotonin return to baseline in a few days.

There is flashes about every 5 to 10 seconds occurring in every direction atp . Looks like we could get a few hours of sun before the second cold front passes. That will help or make things worse depending on how your looking at it.

Its really warmed up tonight out there the wind is already picking up and had a few rumbles here also around 5:20 Am. I thinking upgrade to Enhanced is a possible today. I sure hope @Bubbler86 is on the meso and sounding game today. I find him quite the forum asset to this thread and a great contributor of info and kindness.

High wind warning hoisted . A bad day for grafting trees lol. High Wind Warning URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 313 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063>066-012200- /O.UPG.KCTP.WI.Y.0008.230401T1200Z-230402T0600Z/ /O.EXA.KCTP.HW.W.0002.230401T1200Z-230402T0600Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry- Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 313 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For high wind safety information, visit weather.gov/safety/wind. The latest forecast information can be found on the NWS State College Facebook page and Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or on the web at weather.gov/ctp. && $$ Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-020715- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 315 AM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Pinching the flowers is so often overlooked by the home grower . Fruit quality ,size, and brix will defiantly be vastly improved . If your not frimillar with bagging your fruit on the tree to protect the fruits you should look that up also. CPA is one of the hardest places in the country to grow fruit, because apple country has introduced so many invasive insects, and disease into the area. If you have fun with your trees you should graft on a few more variety's of pear scion . Your tree is most likely grafted to bartlett root stock if you bought it from a nursery , which I believe is also compatible with Asian pears. It's still not to late to graft this season, but time is running very short for grafts. Grafting is unbelievably easy. All you need is a razor blade, electrical tape and some candle wax . I graft all my own apple trees on m27 rootstock using the simple Saddle graft . I use m27 because it grows ultra dwarf trees that top off at 6' max ,but as far as apple trees go budagovsky 9 is the standard apple rootstock here in Pa. , and what you see in most orchards because of its hardiness in or area, and manageable but productive size. At some point you are going to have problems with disease, and insects at both the rhizosphere ,and phyllosphere if you have not already . I can point you in the right direction organic or systematic .

I don't see cellular damage on a single flower, all looks great, In fact those trees have way to many flowers and will probably be mechanically or chemically pinched to increase fruit size and to prevent apples bumping into each other and bruising in the wind. That is a very nice orchard .

Mar 31, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Mar 31 05:26:34 UTC 2023 (Print Version | | ) Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table Categorical Tornado Wind Hail Pop. Cities CWAs RFCs Interstates Counties ARTCC FEMA Tribal Categorical Day2 0600Z Outlook Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area SLIGHT 70,620 11,616,912 Pittsburgh, PA...Rochester, NY...Syracuse, NY...Albany, NY...Youngstown, OH... MARGINAL 179,410 59,473,898 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Virginia Beach, VA... Forecast Discussion SPC AC 310526 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop and organize east of the lower Great Lakes into the Hudson Valley and northern Mid Atlantic region Saturday, accompanied by a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... While another significant short wave trough begins to dig within the main branch of mid-latitude westerlies, near/offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, downstream flow is forecast to become less amplified into and through a confluent regime to the east of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains during this period. To the south of a lingering vortex of Arctic origins (initially centered over southern Hudson Bay), models suggest that a vigorous short wave perturbation will dig to the southeast of James Bay and come in phase with an initially more substantive perturbation within this regime. The consolidating mid-level troughing may shift across New England into the Canadian Maritimes by 12Z Sunday. Associated forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong secondary surface cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, while an initial occluded low over lower Michigan weakens. A conglomerating trailing cold front appears likely to advance east of the Appalachians and offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard into the Gulf coast vicinity by the end of the period. A narrowing pre-frontal plume of higher precipitable water content may advect across much of New England and Mid Atlantic coastal areas by mid afternoon, and the southern Atlantic coast later in the day. Within this regime, weak lapse rates and/or lingering convective cloud cover and precipitation may limit appreciable destabilization Saturday, particularly to the north of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Strongest mid-level cooling and height falls are forecast to overspread the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region through the northern Mid Atlantic and western New England by early Saturday evening. This may provide the focus for the primary severe weather potential for this period. ...Lower Great Lakes into Hudson Valley/northern Mid Atlantic... Lower/mid-tropospheric subsidence/warming likely will be in the process of overspreading the upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region at 12Z Saturday, before nosing east-northeastward through the day. This is expected to allow for appreciable surface heating and boundary-layer mixing to contribute to low-level destabilization prior to the arrival of the mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, which is expected to provide support for low-topped thunderstorm development. This may impact areas to the east and south of Lakes Erie and Ontario Saturday morning into midday, with convection possibly consolidating into an organizing convective system. Given the shear and the strength of the mean flow (40-50+ kt in the lowest 6 km), coupled with the steepening low-level lapse rates, activity may support severe wind gusts while spreading east-northeastward across southern New York and Pennsylvania through the afternoon, perhaps as far east as the Hudson Valley vicinity by early Saturday evening. Farther east, in areas not impacted by the cool Atlantic marine layer, a gradually waning risk for strong wind gusts may continue into the evening hours. ...South Atlantic Seaboard... Strong deep-layer mean flow and shear will be at least conditionally supportive of organized severe weather potential on Saturday, given sufficient destabilization. At least widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development still appears possible. It remains unclear whether instability and mid/upper support will become sufficient for anything more widespread, but higher severe probabilities could still become more apparent and introduced in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0803Z (4:03AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

If I copied YouTubers forecasts word for word and then toted their forecasts as my own I sure as hell wouldn't ask for a cookie too. The April 2011 outbreak was a three day event that was also talked about several days in advance and the wording was far more intimidating than the spc has to this point. A big day next tuesday sure, but the only people I see comparing the potential to 2011 are youtube weenies. Unfortunately because of the way youtube works and pays it's the worst place to get accurate forecasts days in advance unless you want to think every storm is the next superstorm. I think YouTube really raised people's expectations this winter way too high and hyped storms to preposterous levels and it spread from there. As the western trough ejects on Day 6/Tuesday, potential significant severe thunderstorms will be possible far eastern OK toward southeast MO and vicinity. Rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place amid steep midlevel lapse rates courtesy of an EML advecting across the region from the Mexican Plateau. This will supply plenty of instability with stronger vertical shear accompanying the ejecting trough. There is some uncertainty among medium range guidance on the northern extent of better moisture return and hence severe potential. This is mostly driven by differences in surface low, dryline and warm front positions related to somewhat different ejection of the upper trough. However, guidance is in very good agreement with respect to the southern portion of the risk area. Supercells capable of all severe hazards, some potentially significant, will be possible. In 2011 it was clear by day 6 that something historic was very possible at least according to Dr Greg Forbes and the spc.

As long as the buds are still closed there fine . They probably also spray with a anti transpirant when needed . Unlike weather I know my Ag and Aq shit pretty good, been living it all my life.

https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/last-ef5-tornado-united-states-record-longest-span

I saw a few flakes last night . The trick William Potter is not minding that it hurts.

Yikes!!! Not looking good. I'm thinking someone will end up upgraded to high risk by Friday. Speaking of 2011, I'm staring to see a reminiscent early spring pattern. If these systems can continue to bring good energy this far east so early in the spring I think it will tell us a lot storm wise as we move forward into warmer climo. Day 7 is also showing potential for something big. Maybe the trade off for no snow will be some kick ass spring light shows. Mar 30, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Thu Mar 30 05:57:47 UTC 2023 (Print Version | | ) Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table Categorical Tornado Wind Hail Pop. Cities CWAs RFCs Interstates Counties ARTCC FEMA Tribal Categorical Day2 0600Z Outlook Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area MODERATE 44,279 3,704,720 Memphis, TN...Cedar Rapids, IA...Davenport, IA...Iowa City, IA...Jonesboro, AR... ENHANCED 175,248 14,076,681 Nashville, TN...St. Louis, MO...Des Moines, IA...Little Rock, AR...Aurora, IL... SLIGHT 187,977 31,474,477 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY... MARGINAL 155,983 18,555,370 Dallas, TX...Columbus, OH...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Plano, TX... Forecast Discussion SPC AC 300557 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...A bi-modal regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale upper trough will be oriented from the northern plains to the southern Rockies early Friday. The trough will continue to deepen as it shifts east toward the MS Valley by 00z, and oriented from the upper Great Lakes to the TN Valley vicinity by Saturday morning. With time, a closed low is expected to develop over eastern SD/NE/IA and a 100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. Intense southwesterly low-level flow also will overspread the Mid-South through much of the Midwest, with an 850 mb jet around 65-80 kt forecast by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a deepening low centered over eastern NE/western IA Friday morning will shift east across IA through the afternoon before lifting toward southern Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front will extend from the low into eastern KS/central OK/west-central TX at 12z, and shift east across much of the Midwest and Mid-South. Ahead of the eastward-advancing front, strong southerly flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward. Near-60 F dewpoints are expected as far north as eastern IA into northern IL during the afternoon. The warm sector will become more narrow/pinched off with north and east extent toward the Ohio Valley during the evening/overnight hours. However, near 60 F dewpoints are still expected in a narrow corridor ahead of the surging cold front into far southern IN and central KY. Richer boundary-layer moisture will reside from the Mid-South into the Lower-MS/TN Valleys where low to mid 60s F dewpoints are forecast. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley Vicinity... The strongest forcing/DCVA will be located over northern portions of the Mid-MS Valley close to the surface low/triple point. The expectation is that rapid destabilization through the morning (1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE) and arrival of stronger forcing by early afternoon will result in initial supercell development near the surface low. All severe hazards will be possible with these fast moving storms, including a couple of strong tornadoes, intense damaging gusts and large hail. Cellular activity should spread across eastern IA/northern MO and into northwest IL before tendency toward upscale growth into linear convection ensues with eastward extent as convection develops south and east ahead of the front from east-central MO into northern/central IL. Damaging gusts will become more prominent with linear convection, though QLCS tornadoes will also be possible. Additional storms will likely form near/just north of the warm front and move into parts of far southeast MN and southern WI. This activity should remain elevated, posing a risk for large hail and strong gusts, though any cell rooting on the warm front will pose a tornado risk as well, though the better warm sector is expected to remain south of MN/WI. ...Mid-South Vicinity... A concerning scenario appears to be developing across portions of the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to mesovortex tornadoes. ...OH/TN Valley vicinity... Low-level moisture/instability will begin to wane with north and east extent into the nighttime hours. However forecast guidance has consistently shown a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE with little/no inhibition. Forecast guidance generally tends to under-forecast north/east extent of severe potential in strongly forced, intense shear system. As such, the ongoing outlook maintains a broad gradient from Enhanced to Slight risk across this region. Damaging gusts and a few QLCS tornadoes will be possible into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 03/30/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0746Z (3:46AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME