Yardstickgozinya

Likely a blend.

Foxyynew just gave me a solid, 1 to 3 .

Aye aye, Matey" She aint a Marlin, she aint a tuna. This bohemoth monster of of the sea thinks she'll make way of the fishes. This beast never seen the likes of such snow famished scurvy dogs . "Arr" drags pined down deeper than Captain Nemo and the Nautilus themselves.. Don't worry landlubbers , your favorite skally wag, is bringing her ashore

This mornings write up from Nws forcast discussion on this weekend’s winter potential. KEY MESSAGE 3: Reminder that it`s still winter with potential for accumulating snow Sunday followed by a brief cold spell with brisk winds Monday and Tuesday. Main chance for snow on Sunday would be more from the inverted trough, still a ways out to pinpoint location and amts of snow with such a feature. Upper level low dynamics might be the key for our area as well. Earlier discussion below. There remains a strong potential for a low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday intensifying into a nor`easter by Monday. However, the track of the low remains uncertain with plenty of variability in the model guidance. The ECMWF and the UKMET remain farther south and offshore as it exits the coast, whereas the GFS is closest and has the greatest impacts to the Mid-Atlantic region. This is a low confidence forecast at this time with northern and southern stream phasing differences still to be resolved. It seems that even with a more suppressed and eastward track, the associated upper trough and inverted trough axis may be able to provide sufficient forcing/lift to produce a broad area of accumulating snow. Confidence in accumulating snowfall continues to increase, but significant details remain TBD as it relates to the potential for significant snowfall. Confidence is much higher in a reality check back to winter temperatures as a brisk northerly wind behind the departing nor`reaster directs a much colder Canadian airmass back into the region. Max temps on Monday and Tuesday will be 5 to 15 degrees below the historical average. The cold spell won`t last long with a moderating trend commencing through midweek as low level winds turn more southwesterly. Todays full discussion below https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

@Jns2183 Yardstick short range regime sequencing . Thanks for that too by the way, It was a good listen.

I love seeing the volatility in the atmosphere in Pa. the last two nights. Makes me more hopeful maybe we can bust big .

Heavy rain here flash of lightning.

I could have the wrong person here, but I believe it was @anotherman that brought up the Megalopolitan Blizzard of 1983 last week. I'm certainly not saying that it will, but given what the gfs has shown at times and the slightly cooler column ,I feel that this one has more of a legitimate chance, then last week, to bust towards something like that. I could definitely live with that .

There hasn't been any lightning strikes detected for quite a while, but it looks like a lot of the sub is getting some decent rain atm.

There's still a pretty decent amount of convection and lightning for this hour, that looks like it will make it into West Central Pa. at the very least.

Yeah, I couldn't agree more.I bet he doesn't even live in Akron, or really even that nuts about snow.

Not so fast there Pal. I get where you fellas are coming from, but can assure you there's at least one instance where a blind and confused American defeats his foreign enemy.

I couldn't go the whole way back to the start of the convection, but I took a Snapshot of the storms at they're most impressive ,and two snapshots of the two main cells that affected north Northern Pa. last night.

I just went back and checked these storms out. It definitely was a impressive cluster all things considered. It started putting down lightning in Charlotte Michigan and didn't stop putting down consistent strokes until somewhere around State Gamelands, 114 in the Northern Allegheny Plateau.

Thanks buddy. I've been looking at the weather for a long time so i'm used to seeing disagreement, but something seems different this time. No one seems to be noticing or saying anything, so it must be an algorithmic thing on my end. It's like all of a sudden over the course of the last ten days i'm getting data from parallel universes. I've been keeping my eye on the weekend storm. I'm letting some food digest before I step on the roller coaster.

My understanding has been that the p v was to split and send down at least two cold lobes into central then the eastern US late this month, but the MJO would be somewhat muting, and delaying its effects here on the east coast. Was it a pile of rubbish i've been reading, or still being worked out?

I'm not disagreeing with you. Maybe my constant search for cold and snow has given me cold bias algorithms. Is there still two trains of thought on this or has there been some type of agreement. From what I'm gathering the Europeans don't seem to agree with this but everything i've read, is a few hours to a day old so maybe a lot has changed.

It moves like a tortoise.I like it. If it does the old loopy loop or retrogrades on the next panel, I'll take.

I'm not sure how close to home you're looking ,but was up and out periodically until about 4:00 am. I snapped this photo on my walk around 1:00am and the snow was basically done except for some very light dandarites. I didn't measure but .1 sounds about right.

It snowed here just long enough to get in a decent walk last night. I ended up with a dusting. Until yesterday there was very little grond showing in my general area. I'm still holding on to a few inches of snow in most spots. The 1.75" sleet, top layer seems like it will be the last thing to go. I snapped a few photos last night on my walk just to show what i'm still holding onto around here . The top picture was taken at the entrance of the ABWE religious organization in Fairview⁹ township, which sits on the north facing bottom of elevated terrain. The bottom picture was taken at Roof park in Fairview township, which has unidirectional sun exposure and still holding on to it's snow very well considering what it's been through the past couple of days. Any exposed ground I did find on my walk last night was still frozen solid at the surface.

Light snow falling Fairview township 10:21 pm

We just started mixing with the little bit of snow here in Fairview township couple minutes ago.

You really have completely closed yourself off to unlearning or learning anything. Your confidence has put massive limitations on your ability to absorb our process any kind knowledge or understanding usefully. AI Overview Pollution does not have a harder time forming in winter; in fact, winter and cold conditions often make air pollution worse and more concentrated. Cold, dense air inhibits dispersion, while phenomenon like temperature inversions trap pollutants near the ground, causing them to linger longer than in summer. Key Reasons Pollution is Worse in Winter: Temperature Inversions: Warm air can trap a layer of cold, stagnant air near the ground, acting like a lid that prevents pollutants (from cars, wood burning, and industry) from dispersing. Dense Air: Cold air is denser and slower-moving, which allows pollutants to build up rather than being swept away by wind. Increased Emissions: Cold starts for vehicles and increased, consistent use of home heating (wood stoves, furnaces) release higher amounts of pollution. Reduced Precipitation: Lower rainfall in winter means fewer pollutants are washed out of the air. While some photochemical smog components are higher in summer, the overall concentration of pollutants, especially particulate matter (PM2.5), is generally higher in winter.

I'm easy to please. If I can get in a couple mile walk under some mood flakes, it gets chalked up as a win in my book. Yesterday was the first day that my pack took a hard hit. I lost more snow yesterday than all the other days combined since the storm.

@Ruin it's one thing if you're just simply saying you've never seen it. It's another one if you're trying to say it doesn't happen. . Every single spring and fall we have no shortage of air quality alerts on windy days, it's not a rare thing by any means. Air quality alerts in the winter is a little more rare but it's not unheard of either. Air quality alerts are frequently issued during windy conditions. While wind often disperses pollution, it can also transport smoke from distant wildfires or stir up dust, sand, and ash, causing AQI levels to spike into dangerous orange, red, or purple zones. High winds can transport pollutants across large distances, worsening air quality far from the source. Pollution and particulate matter (PM) generally travel, persist, and accumulate more in cold, dry air. Cold air is denser and sits closer to the ground, trapping pollutants, while low humidity prevents moisture from washing particles out of the atmosphere. Thermal inversions often occur, acting as a lid that keeps pollutants trapped. Humidity can help hold down pollen particles, but the overall effect on allergy symptoms is complex and often negative. While moisture can weigh down pollen grains and stop them from traveling far, high humidity often leads to increased mold and dust mite populations, which can exacerbate allergies. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect