Yardstickgozinya

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... All medium range guidance indicates the upper trough will be replaced by a building ridge along the East Coast late this week, supporting a trend toward warmer weather late week into next weekend. However, there is plenty of uncertainty regarding how far the dying cold front gets. Some guidance indicates this boundary limps into Northern PA Friday, then lifts north of the border for the weekend. In this scenario, mostly sunny skies and 850mb temps of near 10C south of the front could support widespread highs in the 70s. Other guidance indicates the front stalls out south of PA next weekend, resulting in a much cooler and potentially rainy scenario, with an easterly flow off of the Atlantic and potential overrunning ahead of approaching low pressure over the Midwest. The current weekend forecast reflects a middle ground compromise between these solutions in regards to temps and POPs. There is broad model consensus that an upstream surface low will track over or just north of PA Monday, supporting a good chance or rain or rain showers

The spc dropped all 5% probabilities they previously had on Saturday for the west sout central but still have a large area highlighted for sunday. At this point, the spc keeps any severe well south of us on Monday as an SLP potentially passes just north or over Pa. mentioned in Noaa's latest forcast discussion.

Exactly my point. You're counting up a loss/win for a forecast that never existed outside of social media. I don't buy into most of this winter stuff either, but I at least have some grasp on how this all works. Can you tell me who how and with what that 8-14 day forcast you posted was created? I thought you didn't buy into any forecast. You're a very complicated and complex individual.

I didn't realize there was a projected winter storm in the forcast. No mention of this on any forcast I can find. What agency did you here this from ?

Nope On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward to near the Gulf Coast. Although isolated storms could develop in the southern Gulf Coast states, limited large-scale ascent is expected to be problematic concerning an organized severe threat.

The frogs approve another round.

Could this be another system we maybe need to monitor as it heads east Monday or Tuesday ? There is nothing highlighted for day 8 yet but the spc discussion peeked my interest. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat willbe possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough.

Day 7

We are not the only ones enjoying this wet and stormy Sunday. This fellow found himself a thick girl but she's playing hard to get. All eggs get safely relocated to the pond down the street teaming with other wood frogs and various other tadpoles and eggs.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning PAC071-133-170215- /O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0010.250317T0132Z-250317T0215Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service State College PA 932 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Lancaster County in south central Pennsylvania... Southern York County in south central Pennsylvania... * Until 1015 PM EDT. * At 931 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Spring Grove, moving northeast at 70 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Buck, York Airport, Stonybrook-Wilshire, Red Lion, Millersville University, Reinholds, Cross Roads, Loganville, New Holland, East York, Blue Ball, and Georgetown. This includes the following Interstates... The Pennsylvania Turnpike from mile markers 268 to 294. Interstate 83 from mile markers 0 to 23. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Stay inside a well built structure and keep away from windows. && LAT...LON 3988 7697 4025 7638 4025 7631 4031 7615 4013 7589 4010 7594 4004 7594 3996 7599 3972 7664 3972 7693 TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 234DEG 62KT 3986 7684 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ KF Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 916 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 PAZ064-065-170145- York PA-Adams PA- 916 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS AND SOUTHERN YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT... At 916 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Taneytown, moving northeast at 70 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Dallastown, Hanover, North York, Mount Wolf, West York, York, East Prospect, Windsor, York Airport, Spring Grove, Stonybrook-Wilshire, Parkville, Red Lion, Glenville, Pennville, Loganville, New Salem, Glen Rock, East York, and Yorklyn. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. &

Pretty amazing they let it outrun it's box.

There's another very intense cell crossing the MD line into York co. atm. Looks like super cell structure to me.. I apologize for the edits I hid it right the first time .

these line segments breaking into some arking cells is interesting and something to keep an eye on especially in eastern cpa.

@Jns2183We got a trainer right were the sun don't shine.