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matt9697

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  1. matt9697
    Nashville NWS is not impressed but typically it has to be snowing for them to call for snow so LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023 It stays dry into Saturday before the next rain systems comes in. This will be a quick hitting system with rain leaving Sunday night. Temperatures stay above freezing so it will just be rain. Maybe a half inch give or take a bit. Dry Monday and then it looks like the southern stream of the jet stream gets active. This will mean several weather systems for our area. It predominately looks like rain...however right now it looks like Wednesday night into Thursday there could be some mixed precipitation...rain/snow/freezing...for mainly locations along and north/west of I-40/65. This is many days away so no reason to get excited. We will keep watching this develop and the precipitation type and location will most definitely waffle over the next couple of model runs. It does look like it will be wet for the second half of the extended forecast. Right now storm total QPF for Tuesday through Thursday night is 1.5" to 3".
  2. matt9697
    Lets keep in mind that it is just one run out of many. So much more to life than to hang out hats on one run lol
  3. matt9697
    I have said it before but will say it again, do not wish ice on anyone anyplace! But the pattern next weeks looks just like what I recall from 1994. In addition, I would not want to be in the shoes of the NWS or local forecasters going into next week, just going to be a tough tough call likely two with a day or two of the event unfolding as to what to expect, where, and how much
  4. matt9697
    Good discussion on the long range from the Nashville NWS - have they been trolling the weather forum? Sounds like what we have been discussing LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023 Our extremely active weather pattern will go into full throttle over the weekend into next week as upper level winds become southwesterly and an Arctic cold front stalls across the region on Monday. Prior to then, another wave of low pressure is forecast to develop across Texas on Saturday then race eastward along the Gulf Coast into Sunday. After a mild and dry day on Saturday with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s, rain will return to the midstate and continue most of Sunday before ending Sunday night. Although this system will be weaker than the one we saw yesterday, the longer duration of rain should allow most locations to receive a half inch to an inch of rain. A forecast nightmare begins Monday and continues the rest of next week as an Arctic cold front moves across Middle Tennessee and stalls. Front then looks to waffle back and forth near us for many days as numerous shortwaves pass overhead. Models are not surprisingly really struggling with this pattern and exactly where the front will end up day to day, with each model run showing drastic changes from the previous one. However, overall this looks to be a very wet pattern for us with several inches of rain possible. In addition, if the front pushes far enough to the south of the midstate, colder air filtering in from the north could lead to a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, or snow - especially across our northwest counties. Latest NBM keeps us mild enough for just rain until Wednesday and Thursday when freezing rain and snow probabilities increase in our northwest. Due to the unusually high uncertainty in the extended forecast, have kept temperatures, precip chances, and precip types near the NBM, but it should be noted the forecast confidence next week is very low. &&
  5. matt9697
    Yea went through a grapple shower on I-65 south just coming into Nashvegas this morning
  6. matt9697
    Produced a 1994 esq ice storm not good if you enjoy electricity.
  7. matt9697
    The unbelievable part is that it is used by so many forecasters
  8. matt9697
    Yea, there are so many players that make up any one storm it is amazing
  9. matt9697
    So we are still looking at general trends here, none of this set in stone until at least early next week
  10. matt9697
    The icing depictions on various models are unnerving to say the least.
  11. matt9697
    Yea, its is a real head scratcher as to why we keep this piece of shi-.
  12. matt9697
    Never fear, the happy hour run will be different yet again!
  13. matt9697
    That is crazy! You know that will be all over social media lol
  14. matt9697
    Is that another low coming out of the gulf? Wow the eye candy
  15. matt9697
    Easily going negative - someone is getting hit next week
  16. matt9697
    I think safe to say that something is going to happen next week!
  17. matt9697
    Well, been stated before in the forum but at least we have something to track this year, many years it is just one rain storm after another.
  18. matt9697
    Getting a real uneasy feeling about an upcoming icing event next week; really really need the SER to relax just a little bit more please, according the the 6GFS run
  19. matt9697
    That run keeps nashville below 32 for days
  20. matt9697
    Will it last though? Is it in realm of possibility?
  21. matt9697
    Snow in New Orleans?
  22. matt9697
    One heck of a GFS clown run so far
  23. matt9697
    Things that make you go, hmm
  24. matt9697
    Not liking the noon run of the GFS hopefully it is wrong, do not want any ice!
  25. matt9697
    Meh, nothing personal but thats all I can really muster right now
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