Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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The other models have an inland low so of course they'd be rain. It would absolutely be threading the needle but if the Euro depicition of a sub 1000 low tracking off shore is right cold air shouldn't be a big problem once the storm is cranking.
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ECM has now shown a coastal storm 4 straight runs for next Sunday-Monday timeframe. Obviously I don't trust anything this far out but this is the best look we've had in a while from the best model.
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Looks like some wintry weather may return to the interior parts of the subforum this week. The coast just seems such a lost cause unless the Euro is magically right with a coastal next Sunday (and even that looks very borderline cold enough for the coast).
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18Z GFS warm with system 1 but honestly it looks nothing like either the Euro or the CMC. No cutter but a weak wave tracking across PA.
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Personally I'd prefer it like this, at least I'm not losing sleep staying up for the Euro for rain events. I don't know if the models are getting better or the pattern is just so horrible that they haven't even been able to tease much this winter. That's why I'm curious what happens with the storm Thu-Fri to see if the models still show something interesting inside 144 hours.
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There are finally some threats to track at least but still kind of fantasy range, although the storm for late next week is at least trackable for now.
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Euro/CMC/GFS all have >3 inches of snow northwest of I287 in the next 240 hours CMC/GFS have >3 inches of snow from the city north in the next 240 hours. We'll see if winter is coming back or models are teasing.
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Euro is a full blown cutter for the late week event but does have a threat on 1/22.
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Yea I think it snows or ices in the interior within the next two weeks, the coastal plain I'm more skeptical of, have to see how strong the confluence is.
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I'm sure if it ends up more south it will be more flattened and weakened but at this point I'd take a weak 1-3 inch storm.
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Hard to get snow to rain when the temperature never goes below 32.
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CMC/gfs both trended way colder and now show some snow for our region with the storm late next week. Probably won’t happen but at this point desperate enough to track anything.
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Yuck that is the worst.
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The fantasy storms showing up again I think is a good sign, we weren't even seeing that on the models in a while (especially if its showing up on models other than just the gfs).
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Honestly this threat is probably the best look Eastern CT and Eastern LI have had this winter, almost every model except the gfs seems to get precip to the twin forks. Admittedly I'm probably paying attention to this more than I normally would because of how horrible this winter is.
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Hard to see NYC going 0 snow with such a warm and dynamic ocean just to our right. Whether it hooks this weekends storm west or not, eventually one of those storms in the atlantic is going to be a hit. The ocean influence can destroy winter precip on the coast but can also be a savior, just need one big hit.
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12Z Euro actually getting real close for Eastern LI https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2023011212&fh=72
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12Z run went warmer, these setups sometimes work out for decent front end frozen in the interior parts of our region, rarely on the coast unless there is a true artic airmass in place.
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You don't see this verifying lol? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011018&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Same as a kid I remember bare ground in the city and once you hit Westchester there was snow cover and by the tappan zee significant snowcover. Thats why I always thought the rain/snow line sat near the city in most storms. I think now with the new climo the boundary layer rain/snow line seems to have moved NW to Orange/Putnam and points NW. The coast definitely cashed in bigtime early 2010s from all those strong coastals.
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Doesn't get more threading the needle than this for most of the subforum. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023011018&fh=225&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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It's definitely a long shot but rather too far east than too far west at this range.
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Seems we haven't had a much snowier season in several winters now but I guess its balancing out for the early 2010s.
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Yea the same pattern in February should be ok as the atlantic would be colder. I'm not saying big snow but at least should be more interesting.
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Was December really that bad though? Verbatim snow in NYC was low but the pattern wasn't too bad, just some near misses.
