Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Euro is a full blown cutter for the late week event but does have a threat on 1/22.
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Yea I think it snows or ices in the interior within the next two weeks, the coastal plain I'm more skeptical of, have to see how strong the confluence is.
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I'm sure if it ends up more south it will be more flattened and weakened but at this point I'd take a weak 1-3 inch storm.
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Hard to get snow to rain when the temperature never goes below 32.
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CMC/gfs both trended way colder and now show some snow for our region with the storm late next week. Probably won’t happen but at this point desperate enough to track anything.
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Yuck that is the worst.
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The fantasy storms showing up again I think is a good sign, we weren't even seeing that on the models in a while (especially if its showing up on models other than just the gfs).
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Honestly this threat is probably the best look Eastern CT and Eastern LI have had this winter, almost every model except the gfs seems to get precip to the twin forks. Admittedly I'm probably paying attention to this more than I normally would because of how horrible this winter is.
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Hard to see NYC going 0 snow with such a warm and dynamic ocean just to our right. Whether it hooks this weekends storm west or not, eventually one of those storms in the atlantic is going to be a hit. The ocean influence can destroy winter precip on the coast but can also be a savior, just need one big hit.
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12Z Euro actually getting real close for Eastern LI https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2023011212&fh=72
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12Z run went warmer, these setups sometimes work out for decent front end frozen in the interior parts of our region, rarely on the coast unless there is a true artic airmass in place.
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You don't see this verifying lol? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023011018&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Same as a kid I remember bare ground in the city and once you hit Westchester there was snow cover and by the tappan zee significant snowcover. Thats why I always thought the rain/snow line sat near the city in most storms. I think now with the new climo the boundary layer rain/snow line seems to have moved NW to Orange/Putnam and points NW. The coast definitely cashed in bigtime early 2010s from all those strong coastals.
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Doesn't get more threading the needle than this for most of the subforum. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023011018&fh=225&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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It's definitely a long shot but rather too far east than too far west at this range.
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Seems we haven't had a much snowier season in several winters now but I guess its balancing out for the early 2010s.
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Yea the same pattern in February should be ok as the atlantic would be colder. I'm not saying big snow but at least should be more interesting.
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Was December really that bad though? Verbatim snow in NYC was low but the pattern wasn't too bad, just some near misses.
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Looks like CMC lost the backend wave Sunday-Monday, I'm not surprised.
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Amazing how far into the Canada the rain gets.
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Its got a chance but would be extremely thread the needle and would probably favor the catskills to New England region. I don't really care that the gfs doesn't show it but I'd think it's more of a real threat if the other models hold onto it 24 hours from now.
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I agree still two months left of meterological winter, it will snow at some point.
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December wasn't that bad of a pattern, just a lot of bad luck near the coast but places in the NW parts of the subforum did decently.
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I cant remember a winter where we've gone this many weeks without any real threat and nothing on the horizon anytime soon. At least the models are getting better I guess at not getting our hopes up.
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Need a sub 1000 low tracking to the southeast and ideally a high in place (although not absolutely essential in January).
